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But I don’t think we’re going to see that — not because of firm finances, but because of optics. In dark times for the country — COVID-19 deaths closing in on 200,000, millions of Americans out of work, companies filing for bankruptcy left and right — it might strike some as unseemly for Biglaw to take a “business as usual” approach.

General counsels who are seeing their companies suffer — well, at least if their companies aren’t named Apple or Amazon — probably won’t take kindly to seeing associates at their outside law firms taking home the same amount of money as last year. In fact, keeping bonuses the same would mean that many associates at firms that didn’t cut salaries would actually fare better financially in 2020, since many of their expenses — dining out, entertainment, commuting costs, gym memberships — have disappeared or dipped dramatically during the pandemic.

snehpets wrote: ↑

Fri Aug 21, 2020 6:41 pm

I found the pitch of his company’s recruiter emails pretty off-putting. It was very “congratulations on us deigning to notice that you might be worthy of further consideration from The David Lat, noted former king of website with business model focused almost entirely on talking about how terrible biglaw is and how stupid people are for working in it. Oh and have you heard that David Lat went to Yale AND worked at Wachtell?”

“Girl, what you looking at?” When Audrey, rendered speechless, does not respond, Harvetta pushes again, asking “are your ears as small as your tiny white ass?” Audrey responds with a smile, an extended hand, and an apology—which Harvetta accepts by playfully suggesting that Audrey was “just checking out [her] big black booty.” Relieved, Audrey wonders to herself whether Harvetta would become her “Sassy African American Friend.”

Monochromatic Oeuvre wrote: ↑

Fri Aug 21, 2020 8:06 pm

Leaving the rest aside, unless the wheels seriously fall off the economy in the next three months, we are absolutely not going back to 2013 bonuses. There's some chance they're flat and some chance there's a mild decline. But the profit declines will be too minor--or in some cases, not declines at all--to threaten an exodus with something like that.

parkslope wrote: ↑

Fri Aug 21, 2020 8:31 pm

Monochromatic Oeuvre wrote: ↑

Fri Aug 21, 2020 8:06 pm

Leaving the rest aside, unless the wheels seriously fall off the economy in the next three months, we are absolutely not going back to 2013 bonuses. There's some chance they're flat and some chance there's a mild decline. But the profit declines will be too minor--or in some cases, not declines at all--to threaten an exodus with something like that.

Well, bonuses aren't set by 30 firms or 100 firms. They're set by two or three: Cravath, DPW, STB I guess, Milbank. Everyone else is a follower. What is Cravath comes out after Thanksgiving with a 50% cut relative to last year? I guess one of the others might come over the top, but maybe not.

If I had to guess, I think it will be a 10-25% cut relative to last year

Anonymous User wrote: ↑

Sat Aug 22, 2020 1:07 am

Every firm's recruiting department should look at the Milbank bump if they want to increase their vault ranking and recruiting ability. There are plenty of other firms who are now rich enough to lead on setting bonuses and it clearly pays significant dividends to do so.

ChairmanKaga wrote: ↑

Sat Aug 22, 2020 6:48 pm

Lat's points aren't totally crazy. We all hope he's wrong, but he could turn out to be right.

Personally, I'm expecting the V10-20 (ish) to match last year's grid and most of the rest to cut. But it's all guesswork at this point. Nobody knows what will happen.

JusticeSquee wrote: ↑

Sun Aug 23, 2020 11:08 am

ChairmanKaga wrote: ↑

Sat Aug 22, 2020 6:48 pm

Lat's points aren't totally crazy. We all hope he's wrong, but he could turn out to be right.

Personally, I'm expecting the V10-20 (ish) to match last year's grid and most of the rest to cut. But it's all guesswork at this point. Nobody knows what will happen.

To be clear, Lat’s views are insane. Bonuses going down to 2013 levels while partners rake in more cash than ever (at least at the V20 level) would result in a lot of folks leaving for low COL markets. Bonuses will be flat this year. Some firms (Susman, Wachtell) will go above and beyond like they always have.

ChairmanKaga wrote: ↑

Sat Aug 22, 2020 6:48 pm

Lat's points aren't totally crazy. We all hope he's wrong, but he could turn out to be right.

Personally, I'm expecting the V10-20 (ish) to match last year's grid and most of the rest to cut. But it's all guesswork at this point. Nobody knows what will happen.

Anonymous User wrote: ↑

Sun Aug 23, 2020 11:37 am

ChairmanKaga wrote: ↑

Sat Aug 22, 2020 6:48 pm

Lat's points aren't totally crazy. We all hope he's wrong, but he could turn out to be right.

Personally, I'm expecting the V10-20 (ish) to match last year's grid and most of the rest to cut. But it's all guesswork at this point. Nobody knows what will happen.

If revenue is flat and bonuses are down (after being flat for 4 years), that means PPP is up. How is that not absolute insanity?

parkslope wrote: ↑

Mon Aug 24, 2020 6:04 pm

I'm not sure why people are dismissing the downside risk of bonuses being substantially lower than last year. It seems like some firms are doing just fine or better than last year, while others are going to be down (and that includes, apparently, some of the V5). All it takes for Cravath is to announce a cut and then no one bothering to raise. Law firms are good at being followers when it comes to stuff like that. Everyone is concerned about the economy and the future, and that includes biglaw partners. The fact that other V10s rarely raise on top of Cravath demonstrates that biglaw firms do not want to have to pay more than they have to in order to maintain parity.