Vault 2021 Predictions Forum

[Spectator]

I've been found out.

I don't know if Vault will be released this week. I assumed it will because of its past releases June 19-June 20.

This Vault 2021 Predictions thread is now about predicting when it will be released. I say

[+] Spoiler

this week still

.

[LS989]

I've been found out.

I don't know if Vault will be released this week. I assumed it will because of its past releases June 19-June 20.

This Vault 2021 Predictions thread is now about predicting when it will be released. I say

[+] Spoiler

this week still

.

Not sure if this will affect things, but I think Chambers released their firm profiles today (could have been earlier and I am just becoming aware). Maybe vault didn't want to enter the crowded media field this week?

[Lukky]

I wonder if there is a delay because of all the craziness going on with COVID. I thought it'd come out today since it seems like it usually come out on Wednesday.

[Anonymous User]

So weird...doesn't seem like rankings should necessarily be affected by COVID yet since the surveys were based on the previous year and that information is helpful still

[Anonymous User]

A blog post on Vault's site today says the rankings will not be released until September

[Ultramar vistas]

A blog post on Vault's site today says the rankings will not be released until September

“ This year, we have decided to move our rankings release to September 2020. Over the past several months, our team has monitored the effects of the coronavirus pandemic on the entire legal industry. Above all, we understand that now is a time for everyone to focus on their safety and well-being. This also has been a time of change, as many legal employers have transitioned to remote working, law schools and law firms have modified their OCI plans, and law firms have shifted to virtual summer associate programs. In addition, many in the legal industry have been profoundly affected by the recent dialogue surrounding racial inequality and the Black Lives Matter movement and have used this time to reflect and decide how to join the conversation.

Our goal is to be as supportive as we can during this time of significant change and contemplation. With this in mind, we believe it is best to postpone our rankings this year. We look forward to sharing Vault’s new 2021 rankings in September once the legal industry has had more time to adapt and law schools kick off another school year.”


Interesting move. Wonder if they were concerned about the “fanfare” around a new release being lost right now, or if they were concerned that the rankings would be embarrassingly far off from what reality just reflected, or if they really take themselves seriously enough to think that delaying some industry rankings has anything to do with being supportive of a social movement?

[malibustacy]

A blog post on Vault's site today says the rankings will not be released until September

“ This year, we have decided to move our rankings release to September 2020. Over the past several months, our team has monitored the effects of the coronavirus pandemic on the entire legal industry. Above all, we understand that now is a time for everyone to focus on their safety and well-being. This also has been a time of change, as many legal employers have transitioned to remote working, law schools and law firms have modified their OCI plans, and law firms have shifted to virtual summer associate programs. In addition, many in the legal industry have been profoundly affected by the recent dialogue surrounding racial inequality and the Black Lives Matter movement and have used this time to reflect and decide how to join the conversation.

Our goal is to be as supportive as we can during this time of significant change and contemplation. With this in mind, we believe it is best to postpone our rankings this year. We look forward to sharing Vault’s new 2021 rankings in September once the legal industry has had more time to adapt and law schools kick off another school year.”


Interesting move. Wonder if they were concerned about the “fanfare” around a new release being lost right now, or if they were concerned that the rankings would be embarrassingly far off from what reality just reflected, or if they really take themselves seriously enough to think that delaying some industry rankings has anything to do with being supportive of a social movement?

Gotta wait for a more favorable economic climate for the firm sponsorships and "contributions" to roll in.

[AllyMcBail]

The 2021 Vault 100 rankings will be published next week.

I drafted two emails, a resignation letter if my firm goes down the rankings by even 1/100, and a request for a promotion if we go up by more than 2/100. Non-associates should know that we did the 2021 survey in February 2020, so it was too late to vote based on COVID-19 responses.

With that being said, what are your predictions? Where do you see the most change? The least? Surprises? I predict Milbank will jump from v25 to v16.

I'm so with you. I quit my biglaw job out of shame when we lost 3 spots in the Vault rankings.

I can't tell if this is a joke but I hope it is.

Yes, it was a joke. I hope no one would actually say this.

[two post]

I suspect the real reason for the delay is the reason Vault rankings are kinda silly: Law students are the primary audience. OCIs have been delayed. Pretty simple.

[Anonymous User]

Somehow seems a bit off putting for them to appropriate Black Lives Matter as an excuse for not releasing their popularity contest results. Maybe I’m a bit cynical.

[Spectator]

The 2021 Vault 100 rankings will be published next week.

I drafted two emails, a resignation letter if my firm goes down the rankings by even 1/100, and a request for a promotion if we go up by more than 2/100. Non-associates should know that we did the 2021 survey in February 2020, so it was too late to vote based on COVID-19 responses.

With that being said, what are your predictions? Where do you see the most change? The least? Surprises? I predict Milbank will jump from v25 to v16.

I'm so with you. I quit my biglaw job out of shame when we lost 3 spots in the Vault rankings.

I can't tell if this is a joke but I hope it is.

Yes, it was a joke. I hope no one would actually say this.

Personally, I think vault rankings are life or death.

I am utterly disappointed they won't be released until September.

So, I've asked my firm to furlough me until rankings are released. In September, if the firm has gone up in the ranks, I'll let them keep me as an employee with a 10% raise. If they remain the same or go down, they shouldn't be surprised if I move on to be chair of their competitor. I'm also refusing to post on TLS until rankings come out and I'm sorry you'll have to miss me.

[TigerIsBack]

Kirkland v5, or even v4, sounds right.

If Goodwin doesn't begin its descent from v37 this year, it will next year.

Weil might hold the v11 line, but I'm guessing v12-v14.

On one hand, Jones Day might see a long overdue drop, due to all the bad press and black box compensation. On the other, representing POTUS (no matter your opinion on whoever is POTUS at the time) could even boost their rank.

Why do you think Goodwin should drop? Just curious. Someone else said that too.

[Stillblade]

Kirkland v5, or even v4, sounds right.

If Goodwin doesn't begin its descent from v37 this year, it will next year.

Weil might hold the v11 line, but I'm guessing v12-v14.

On one hand, Jones Day might see a long overdue drop, due to all the bad press and black box compensation. On the other, representing POTUS (no matter your opinion on whoever is POTUS at the time) could even boost their rank.

Why do you think Goodwin should drop? Just curious. Someone else said that too.

Stealth layoffs.

[Anonymous User]

Therefore, it's outrageous that Paul Hastings is as highly ranked as it is;

I just want to note, as a current associate, my understanding of PH, and this could explain it's higher ranking, is that it's really a story of two firms, as far as associate life etc. West coast offices, basically every associate I talk to speaks positively of the firm, and NY (I don't really speak to anyone in DC) is much more neutral/negative.

PH on the West Coast (at least in SoCal) is a miserable associate experience according to most people I know who have worked or currently work there, particularly if you're a woman.

Fair enough, I've heard differently, but most of the people I talk to are in NorCal. Maybe there's just a few smaller offices that are good and the rest are shit.

I’ve also heard differently (i.e., I’ve heard mainly positive things) from both male and female PH associates in SoCal. I’m unfamiliar with NorCal. I guess it goes to show that everyone has a different firm experience!

Cal associate. Horrible, horrible experience. Especially if you are a woman - I would avoid real estate and fund formation in particular.

[Anonymous User]

Vault is nonsense.

Everything just depends on your practice area, what partners do what, their reputation, billables targets, salary, bonus and bonus conditions.

I'm at a firm ranked highly for satisfaction and it's around the 20 mark on Vault - it is total nonsense. It's an atrocious firm, a terrible place to work and I'd leave in a heartbeat fof firms waaaaaaaay down the Vault list because not are they only better and have a better reputation in the market for my practice area, but they are much better firms with better people, better culture (which isn't hard since my firm sacks off associates every time there's a cloud in the sky).

[Spectator]

Vault is nonsense.

Wrong.

HOW SALARY CUTS AND MORE SHOW YOU'RE WRONG ABOUT VAULT
As of May 15, 2020, 4:00 pm Eastern Time (U.S.), 41 of the V100 implemented compensation freezes/cuts or layoffs. Of the 41, 11 were V1-V50, 30 were V51-100. The largest pay cut to have been announced is 25%, by Cadwalader (V52) and Arent Fox (V77). The highest Vault-ranked firm to have announced compensation freezes/cuts or layoffs is Boies Schiller (V24).

HOW DEFERRALS SHOW THAT YOU'RE WRONG ABOUT VAULT
Firms that are starting incoming associates in fall: V1-V20 (45%), V-21-40 (10%), V41-V60 (10%), V-61-80 (1%), V81-V100 (0%)
Firms Deferred to 2021: V1-V20 (15%), V21-V40 (45%), V41-V60 (50%), V61-V80 (50%), V81-V100 (80%)

Source, based on firms that have made decisions as of today: https://www.reddit.com/r/LawSchool/comm ... art_dates/

SUMMARY
People notice these things and consider them when filling out surveys. Generally the wealthiest firms are consistently ranked at top for a reason, because they have the resources to not cut salaries, to bring people on when or closer to when promised than lower ranked firms, etc.

CONCESSION
Vault isn't perfect. But the notion that it's nonsense is sour-grapes.

[EzraFitz]

Vault is nonsense.

Wrong.

HOW SALARY CUTS AND MORE SHOW YOU'RE WRONG ABOUT VAULT
As of May 15, 2020, 4:00 pm Eastern Time (U.S.), 41 of the V100 implemented compensation freezes/cuts or layoffs. Of the 41, 11 were V1-V50, 30 were V51-100. The largest pay cut to have been announced is 25%, by Cadwalader (V52) and Arent Fox (V77). The highest Vault-ranked firm to have announced compensation freezes/cuts or layoffs is Boies Schiller (V24).

HOW DEFERRALS SHOW THAT YOU'RE WRONG ABOUT VAULT
Firms that are starting incoming associates in fall: V1-V20 (45%), V-21-40 (10%), V41-V60 (10%), V-61-80 (1%), V81-V100 (0%)
Firms Deferred to 2021: V1-V20 (15%), V21-V40 (45%), V41-V60 (50%), V61-V80 (50%), V81-V100 (80%)

Source, based on firms that have made decisions as of today: https://www.reddit.com/r/LawSchool/comm ... art_dates/

SUMMARY
People notice these things and consider them when filling out surveys. Generally the wealthiest firms are consistently ranked at top for a reason, because they have the resources to not cut salaries, to bring people on when or closer to when promised than lower ranked firms, etc.

CONCESSION
Vault isn't perfect. But the notion that it's nonsense is sour-grapes.

I think it depends on why it's being called "nonsense." From the standpoint of actual quality of a place to work? It's nonsense. It maybe has at least some correlation to firms that are "healthier" or "wealthier", based on the types of metrics you listed. But beyond that...

[Spectator]

Vault is nonsense.

Wrong.

(Response omitted from this particular post, to avoid clutter.)

I think it depends on why it's being called "nonsense." From the standpoint of actual quality of a place to work? It's nonsense. It maybe has at least some correlation to firms that are "healthier" or "wealthier", based on the types of metrics you listed. But beyond that...

Hard metrics like start dates, salary cuts, layoffs, furloughs, etc. will almost always matter more to people who choose biglaw and are looking at firms than soft metrics like "quality of a place to work." The fact is, soft metrics are closer to "nonsense" than hard ones. There's no way to know if a firm is truly as good or bad as you think unless you work there, and even then every associates' experience within a single firm will be unique. Also, there are plenty of shitty ass small firms that don't even make the V100 or AM200, where associates lives are hell (and they're getting paid a fraction of the AM200 salary, upper V100 salary). Given all this, relying on metrics like "quality of a place to work" is a fight in the dark. And in that sense Vault may not help, but that doesn't detract from Vault's value.

[EzraFitz]

Vault is nonsense.

Wrong.

(Response omitted from this particular post, to avoid clutter.)

I think it depends on why it's being called "nonsense." From the standpoint of actual quality of a place to work? It's nonsense. It maybe has at least some correlation to firms that are "healthier" or "wealthier", based on the types of metrics you listed. But beyond that...

Hard metrics like start dates, salary cuts, layoffs, furloughs, etc. will almost always matter more to people who choose biglaw and are looking at firms than soft metrics like "quality of a place to work." The fact is, soft metrics are closer to "nonsense" than hard ones. There's no way to know if a firm is truly as good or bad as you think unless you work there, and even then every associates' experience within a single firm will be unique. Also, there are plenty of shitty ass small firms that don't even make the V100 or AM200, where associates lives are hell (and they're getting paid a fraction of the AM200 salary, upper V100 salary). Given all this, relying on metrics like "quality of a place to work" is a fight in the dark. And in that sense Vault may not help, but that doesn't detract from Vault's value.

I don't disagree that those are important metrics, and I don't disagree that Vault has some value, I just wanted to be clear on where the value is. And I respectfully disagree on "quality of a place to work." That is literally the primary thing that has guided me in choosing both of the jobs I have had, and I 100% am glad I based it on that metric moreso than anything else. It takes ground work, talking to people, informal coffees with associates, etc. But digging into what people actually think of working somewhere to me is way more important than the metrics Vault can tell you about in 30 seconds. I just think it's a bit of a strawman to say that "quality of a place to work" can't be figured out until you actually work there. It just takes some effort.

[Monochromatic Oeuvre]

Vault is nonsense.

Wrong.

HOW SALARY CUTS AND MORE SHOW YOU'RE WRONG ABOUT VAULT
As of May 15, 2020, 4:00 pm Eastern Time (U.S.), 41 of the V100 implemented compensation freezes/cuts or layoffs. Of the 41, 11 were V1-V50, 30 were V51-100. The largest pay cut to have been announced is 25%, by Cadwalader (V52) and Arent Fox (V77). The highest Vault-ranked firm to have announced compensation freezes/cuts or layoffs is Boies Schiller (V24).

HOW DEFERRALS SHOW THAT YOU'RE WRONG ABOUT VAULT
Firms that are starting incoming associates in fall: V1-V20 (45%), V-21-40 (10%), V41-V60 (10%), V-61-80 (1%), V81-V100 (0%)
Firms Deferred to 2021: V1-V20 (15%), V21-V40 (45%), V41-V60 (50%), V61-V80 (50%), V81-V100 (80%)

Source, based on firms that have made decisions as of today: https://www.reddit.com/r/LawSchool/comm ... art_dates/

SUMMARY
People notice these things and consider them when filling out surveys. Generally the wealthiest firms are consistently ranked at top for a reason, because they have the resources to not cut salaries, to bring people on when or closer to when promised than lower ranked firms, etc.

CONCESSION
Vault isn't perfect. But the notion that it's nonsense is sour-grapes.

This is really just a case for going to a rich firm, not a "prestigious" firm. They're not the same thing.

[ChickenSalad]

Vault is nonsense.

Wrong.

HOW SALARY CUTS AND MORE SHOW YOU'RE WRONG ABOUT VAULT
As of May 15, 2020, 4:00 pm Eastern Time (U.S.), 41 of the V100 implemented compensation freezes/cuts or layoffs. Of the 41, 11 were V1-V50, 30 were V51-100. The largest pay cut to have been announced is 25%, by Cadwalader (V52) and Arent Fox (V77). The highest Vault-ranked firm to have announced compensation freezes/cuts or layoffs is Boies Schiller (V24).

HOW DEFERRALS SHOW THAT YOU'RE WRONG ABOUT VAULT
Firms that are starting incoming associates in fall: V1-V20 (45%), V-21-40 (10%), V41-V60 (10%), V-61-80 (1%), V81-V100 (0%)
Firms Deferred to 2021: V1-V20 (15%), V21-V40 (45%), V41-V60 (50%), V61-V80 (50%), V81-V100 (80%)

Source, based on firms that have made decisions as of today: https://www.reddit.com/r/LawSchool/comm ... art_dates/

SUMMARY
People notice these things and consider them when filling out surveys. Generally the wealthiest firms are consistently ranked at top for a reason, because they have the resources to not cut salaries, to bring people on when or closer to when promised than lower ranked firms, etc.

CONCESSION
Vault isn't perfect. But the notion that it's nonsense is sour-grapes.

Given the bolded heading, all caps text and various sections in your post, you seem to have taken this criticism of Vault rankings very personally.

How much cash firms have on hand to weather a crisis like COVID 19 doesn’t tell us much of anything about firms’ “prestige.” Perceived “wealth” more broadly doesn’t really either. Fried Frank (V48) had a higher PPP than Latham (V5) last year. That is useless information for associates and no one really cares about it anyway.

And sorting Vault firms in groups of 20 (or any other number really) is arbitrary and feels like law students who tier T14s in groups of 3 or 4. Yeah Vault firms are roughly correlated to ppp and other factors that collectively signal prestige. But seeing who falls out of the “top 40” or breaks into the “top 10” is totally pointless.

I had to google the vault rankings for both Fried Frank and Latham. I think most other associates would too and that fact is telling.

[JusticeSquee]

Vault is nonsense.

Wrong.

HOW SALARY CUTS AND MORE SHOW YOU'RE WRONG ABOUT VAULT
As of May 15, 2020, 4:00 pm Eastern Time (U.S.), 41 of the V100 implemented compensation freezes/cuts or layoffs. Of the 41, 11 were V1-V50, 30 were V51-100. The largest pay cut to have been announced is 25%, by Cadwalader (V52) and Arent Fox (V77). The highest Vault-ranked firm to have announced compensation freezes/cuts or layoffs is Boies Schiller (V24).

HOW DEFERRALS SHOW THAT YOU'RE WRONG ABOUT VAULT
Firms that are starting incoming associates in fall: V1-V20 (45%), V-21-40 (10%), V41-V60 (10%), V-61-80 (1%), V81-V100 (0%)
Firms Deferred to 2021: V1-V20 (15%), V21-V40 (45%), V41-V60 (50%), V61-V80 (50%), V81-V100 (80%)

Source, based on firms that have made decisions as of today: https://www.reddit.com/r/LawSchool/comm ... art_dates/

SUMMARY
People notice these things and consider them when filling out surveys. Generally the wealthiest firms are consistently ranked at top for a reason, because they have the resources to not cut salaries, to bring people on when or closer to when promised than lower ranked firms, etc.

CONCESSION
Vault isn't perfect. But the notion that it's nonsense is sour-grapes.

This is really just a case for going to a rich firm, not a "prestigious" firm. They're not the same thing.

Agreed. There is a far stronger correlation of what Spectator is showing (deferral rates and pay cut rates) if you use the RPL rankings instead of Vault. Firms at the top of the RPL ladder (Wachtell, SullCrom, Simpson, Kirkland, Skadden) have not cut salaries or defer associates.

https://i.imgur.com/R1mo1rT_d.jpg?maxwi ... ity=medium

[ChickenSalad]

Vault is nonsense.

Wrong.

HOW SALARY CUTS AND MORE SHOW YOU'RE WRONG ABOUT VAULT
As of May 15, 2020, 4:00 pm Eastern Time (U.S.), 41 of the V100 implemented compensation freezes/cuts or layoffs. Of the 41, 11 were V1-V50, 30 were V51-100. The largest pay cut to have been announced is 25%, by Cadwalader (V52) and Arent Fox (V77). The highest Vault-ranked firm to have announced compensation freezes/cuts or layoffs is Boies Schiller (V24).

HOW DEFERRALS SHOW THAT YOU'RE WRONG ABOUT VAULT
Firms that are starting incoming associates in fall: V1-V20 (45%), V-21-40 (10%), V41-V60 (10%), V-61-80 (1%), V81-V100 (0%)
Firms Deferred to 2021: V1-V20 (15%), V21-V40 (45%), V41-V60 (50%), V61-V80 (50%), V81-V100 (80%)

Source, based on firms that have made decisions as of today: https://www.reddit.com/r/LawSchool/comm ... art_dates/

SUMMARY
People notice these things and consider them when filling out surveys. Generally the wealthiest firms are consistently ranked at top for a reason, because they have the resources to not cut salaries, to bring people on when or closer to when promised than lower ranked firms, etc.

CONCESSION
Vault isn't perfect. But the notion that it's nonsense is sour-grapes.

This is really just a case for going to a rich firm, not a "prestigious" firm. They're not the same thing.

Agreed. There is a far stronger correlation of what Spectator is showing (deferral rates and pay cut rates) if you use the RPL rankings instead of Vault. Firms at the top of the RPL ladder (Wachtell, SullCrom, Simpson, Kirkland, Skadden) have not cut salaries or defer associates.

https://i.imgur.com/R1mo1rT_d.jpg?maxwi ... ity=medium

Well Sullivan & Cromwell has taken austerity measures but otherwise your point is well taken

https://abovethelaw.com/2020/07/layoffs ... -law-firm/

[addie1412]

Vault is nonsense.

Wrong.

HOW SALARY CUTS AND MORE SHOW YOU'RE WRONG ABOUT VAULT
As of May 15, 2020, 4:00 pm Eastern Time (U.S.), 41 of the V100 implemented compensation freezes/cuts or layoffs. Of the 41, 11 were V1-V50, 30 were V51-100. The largest pay cut to have been announced is 25%, by Cadwalader (V52) and Arent Fox (V77). The highest Vault-ranked firm to have announced compensation freezes/cuts or layoffs is Boies Schiller (V24).

HOW DEFERRALS SHOW THAT YOU'RE WRONG ABOUT VAULT
Firms that are starting incoming associates in fall: V1-V20 (45%), V-21-40 (10%), V41-V60 (10%), V-61-80 (1%), V81-V100 (0%)
Firms Deferred to 2021: V1-V20 (15%), V21-V40 (45%), V41-V60 (50%), V61-V80 (50%), V81-V100 (80%)

Source, based on firms that have made decisions as of today: https://www.reddit.com/r/LawSchool/comm ... art_dates/

SUMMARY
People notice these things and consider them when filling out surveys. Generally the wealthiest firms are consistently ranked at top for a reason, because they have the resources to not cut salaries, to bring people on when or closer to when promised than lower ranked firms, etc.

CONCESSION
Vault isn't perfect. But the notion that it's nonsense is sour-grapes.

This is really just a case for going to a rich firm, not a "prestigious" firm. They're not the same thing.

Agreed. There is a far stronger correlation of what Spectator is showing (deferral rates and pay cut rates) if you use the RPL rankings instead of Vault. Firms at the top of the RPL ladder (Wachtell, SullCrom, Simpson, Kirkland, Skadden) have not cut salaries or defer associates.

https://i.imgur.com/R1mo1rT_d.jpg?maxwi ... ity=medium

Well Sullivan & Cromwell has taken austerity measures but otherwise your point is well taken

https://abovethelaw.com/2020/07/layoffs ... -law-firm/

Also, Ropes and STB both deferred to 2021

[JusticeSquee]

Vault is nonsense.

Wrong.

HOW SALARY CUTS AND MORE SHOW YOU'RE WRONG ABOUT VAULT
As of May 15, 2020, 4:00 pm Eastern Time (U.S.), 41 of the V100 implemented compensation freezes/cuts or layoffs. Of the 41, 11 were V1-V50, 30 were V51-100. The largest pay cut to have been announced is 25%, by Cadwalader (V52) and Arent Fox (V77). The highest Vault-ranked firm to have announced compensation freezes/cuts or layoffs is Boies Schiller (V24).

HOW DEFERRALS SHOW THAT YOU'RE WRONG ABOUT VAULT
Firms that are starting incoming associates in fall: V1-V20 (45%), V-21-40 (10%), V41-V60 (10%), V-61-80 (1%), V81-V100 (0%)
Firms Deferred to 2021: V1-V20 (15%), V21-V40 (45%), V41-V60 (50%), V61-V80 (50%), V81-V100 (80%)

Source, based on firms that have made decisions as of today: https://www.reddit.com/r/LawSchool/comm ... art_dates/

SUMMARY
People notice these things and consider them when filling out surveys. Generally the wealthiest firms are consistently ranked at top for a reason, because they have the resources to not cut salaries, to bring people on when or closer to when promised than lower ranked firms, etc.

CONCESSION
Vault isn't perfect. But the notion that it's nonsense is sour-grapes.

This is really just a case for going to a rich firm, not a "prestigious" firm. They're not the same thing.

Agreed. There is a far stronger correlation of what Spectator is showing (deferral rates and pay cut rates) if you use the RPL rankings instead of Vault. Firms at the top of the RPL ladder (Wachtell, SullCrom, Simpson, Kirkland, Skadden) have not cut salaries or defer associates.

https://i.imgur.com/R1mo1rT_d.jpg?maxwi ... ity=medium

Well Sullivan & Cromwell has taken austerity measures but otherwise your point is well taken

https://abovethelaw.com/2020/07/layoffs ... -law-firm/

Staff layoffs and buyouts were commonplace even before the rona tho. Not sure Simpson and Ropes deferring associates is shitty, given that they can clearly afford not to. All hail Wachtell/Kirkland/Skadden for treating their associates fairly I guess.