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This is going to sound like such a asshat question, so apologies, but please bear with me.

What are the long term consequences of turning down lateral offers? My lateral search as a junior associate went exceedingly well, so I am lucky enough to be able to choose between "best" firms for my practice area.

I've come to a decision and intend to inform the firms today. As much as I would like to spend the rest of my biglaw career at this new firm, I'm a risk adverse lawyer like most of you. Should something not work out with the new firm in a few years (again, no reason to think that this would happen, but also didn't expect to lateral from my current firm) will I be blacklisted at the firms I turned down offers from?

TLDR: Got lucky in lateral process, don't want to piss off future potential employers.

Very unlikely. When you turn it down, just be gracious. And if you want, you can always connect with the people you met during the process for coffee/networking. I don't think many people are going to take it personally as long as you have some reason that isn't "I liked them more than you" (for example, better practice group fit, different clients, whatever).