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Can we collect some thoughts on what people think the partnerships prospects are at various firms? Something along the lines of, at firm X, the associates feel like if they do a pretty good job at the things they can control (consistently billing hours typical of people who make partner, making sure the right people internally know who you are, putting yourself out there for business development even if you’re not necessarily successful), then they have a 70% chance at making partner within years 9-12.

I'm not sure how useful this exercise will be. So much depends on specific relationships and specifics of a given working group. Not something I'd advise prospective associates to take too much stock in.

Yeah, I don’t even know how anyone could begin to guess at this.

Safest to assume 0% until you’re a senior associate and see where you stand and the demand for partners in your group.

If you get a few years in and have consistently good reviews, a useful skill set, and the tolerance for the workload/unpredictability, I think your chance of making partner *somewhere* is pretty good. But 0-20% percent of people in your class when you're a first year will make partner no matter where you go.