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I’m going to keep this short because I can’t disclose anything else:

I’m in a situation where, because my firm delayed paying bonuses this year despite always paying before Christmas, I can either give two weeks notice today and hope I receive a bonus (which is scheduled to be paid out during my notice period), or I can wait until the bonus is paid out, in which case I will probably only be able to give one weeks notice.

Bonuses have already been announced.

What do I do?

This is a no-brainer. Wait until you are paid.

Clearly wait. Give the 1 week notice and tell the firm on the way out the door they should pay bonuses on time next year if they want 2 weeks.

OP here.

Other than burning bridges, will I face any negative repercussions for only giving one weeks’ notice?

If you already have a final offer and don't need references right now from your current firm who cases.

Take the money, burn the bridge, who cares. 2 weeks is a courtesy not a requirement.

OP here.

I may still need references, which would be contacted after I start new position.

I don't think giving one week's notice is going to burn too many bridges - like others have said, 2 weeks is customary, but I've heard of people doing one week before in varying circumstances.

On the other hand, I gave my notice before bonuses were paid (actually my last day was the day we received bonuses) and my firm still gave me mine. Might not be worth the risk though.

Get paid. While I've always tried to give two weeks notice when I can, I wouldn't feel too bad if I didn't in most circumstances. You'll notice that the two week courtesy only works one way. If they wanted to fire you, they wouldn't give you two weeks, they'd give you two minutes to clean out your desk while security stood by watching you.

The last two times I’ve given two weeks’ notice, I was asked to leave immediately (I gave notice on Friday both times).

I once gave slightly over a week's notice (6 business days) and received zero pushback. Granted, the short notice wasn't in order to receive a bonus.

I think the key in my case was that, well in advance of formally giving notice, I'd planned out how to transition my matters with minimal disruption. So none of my seniors felt like I was leaving them in the lurch, with unfinished work/looming deadlines.