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Trying to decide whether to take this offer or keep looking. Some context:
T20, 2014 grad, median GPA, prev gen lit experience at a 2 partner firm (before it imploded) and 2 fed clerkships (DJ and MJ). My current clerkship is in my target mkt (think TX, Atl, NC, FL, Chicago size) and its (flexible) end date is this summer.
I've very casually started looking but my priority is a stable firm with takehome 180k my first year (aka BigLaw or medium law with clear bonus structure). Fed govt was my main interest but I just wanna get rid of my loans now since fed govt is not exactly super stable.
Went for lunch with a former clerk who works at an L&R boutique a few weeks ago and it turned into meeting with the firm's partner and an offer. Starting range is 120-140 and bonus is discretionary 10% of takehome. SO no way I would be pulling even $160k my first year, which is not unusual for a firm of it's size in this market. They want me to start January but are flexible. They are reliant on 2 major clients and don't have any billable req.
On the one hand, this is an offer and it's not bad. On the other, it's not the type of firm or amount I want and I haven't really started looking elsewhere. But I don't want to kick myself if I didn't accept it when I had the chance the if I don't get anything better in a few months. I've started applying elsewhere and am considering both a recruiter and targeting a bigger market (think CA, DC, NY) where I have family.
The question is: is this the best I can do, given my market and background? I'm also pretty concerned about an economic downturn in 2019 that might affect hiring. Although a smaller firm with a manufacturing client is not exactly going to be a bulwark against that either. HELP!

With a flexible end date, I think it’s likely but not definite that you could do better. Anecdotally I am aware of similar sounding grads at similar sounding markets getting market biglaw within say 6-9 months of job searching. Networking is of course key here also.

Have you considered accepting and continuing to look? Of course that could be risky (bridge burning etc), but I’ve seen people take these calculated risks and come out with great outcomes. Downside of course is word gets around and it’s not good.

Just wondering if that’s something about which you’ve weighed the pros and cons.

With your credentials, you are competitive for a higher paying job at a bigger firm if you want. That being said, non-traditional big law hiring (i.e. non Summer Associate's, big law laterals) is generally fickle and may take you a long time to find an offer (6 months to multiple years of looking/applying/interviewing/offer).

I would try to find a way to convey to the small firm that has offered you that you need additional time to talk things over with the judge, clear conflicts, etc. before you give a hard commitment. You can't start until the summer earliest anyway, and many judges are often peculiar about their clerks accepting offers with so much time left on their clerkship (one foot out the door already). Make it more about respecting your current position than continuing your career search.

Lateral hiring generally picks up in the early New Year, so if you are still striking out at something bigger in mid-February, might be time to take the small law offer and put a year or two there so you at least have some more relevant experience.

OP here, yea I took the advice and wrote this:

"Sorry it's taken me awhile to get back to you; I've been thinking long and hard about whether it's possible to leave my clerkship in January and I just can't leave any earlier than April, and certainly not as early as January (or before we complete the next motions list). My relationship with Judge and co-clerk is too important to me and I know how insane the docket's been for them the last few years and, now that they finally have a handle on it, I don't want to jeopardize that for them or my (or your firm's) long-term relationship with the Court.
I don't know what this means in terms of the offer and I would never ask you to hold it for me until Judge finds my replacement. I tried to call you just now to discuss but decided to email you so that I could let you know right away (in case you need to find someone for January). I'm sorry that your timing needs and Judge's don't match up at this point, but please let me know if you'd still be interested in hiring me after April.
Thank you so much"