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Title says it: my references were called for a federal government job. The position had multiple vacancies opened. What’re the chances this means I’m going to land an offer?

15-20?

The only times my references were called, I got the job. However, they do take what references say very seriously, so I don’t know that it’s a guarantee (someone else’s references might be more glowing?), but it’s a good sign.

Received multiple offers from fed agencies recently. My references were called as the last part of the process, after initial and follow-up interviews, and immediately before an offer was extended. It's generally a pretty good sign.