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The firm I'm going to for my 2L summer is pretty much 100% offer, but they did have a few no offers during the recession. After talking with recruiting, I came to the understanding that a full-time offer would be pretty much guaranteed, so long as the economy didn't tank or something crazy like that.

My understanding of the economy/stock markets/etc is very limited, so I was just curious how long in advance is it possible to know if a recession is coming? I understand that most answers are just speculation and that none of us are economists, but is the current economy looking good for the next year or so at least?

I would prioritize doing a good job and being social over worrying about the future state of the economy. You have no control over future recessions; you have control over how you present yourself and the quality of work you produce.

Anonymous User wrote:The firm I'm going to for my 2L summer is pretty much 100% offer, but they did have a few no offers during the recession. After talking with recruiting, I came to the understanding that a full-time offer would be pretty much guaranteed, so long as the economy didn't tank or something crazy like that.

My understanding of the economy/stock markets/etc is very limited, so I was just curious how long in advance is it possible to know if a recession is coming? I understand that most answers are just speculation and that none of us are economists, but is the current economy looking good for the next year or so at least?

No recession in 2017-2018 fiscal year

Only big wild card I see is Chinese economy so keep an eye on that I guess. The Middle East is in turmoil but oil prices won't go back above $60-70 due to Canadian and American oil shale discoveries.

if you can predict a recession then short the market and become a millionaire in a year or two

mvp99 wrote:if you can predict a recession then short the market and become a millionaire in a year or two

Although this is a lot easier to pull off if you are sitting a big pile of cash to begin with (not the case for many students).

Anonymous User wrote:The firm I'm going to for my 2L summer is pretty much 100% offer, but they did have a few no offers during the recession. After talking with recruiting, I came to the understanding that a full-time offer would be pretty much guaranteed, so long as the economy didn't tank or something crazy like that.

My understanding of the economy/stock markets/etc is very limited, so I was just curious how long in advance is it possible to know if a recession is coming? I understand that most answers are just speculation and that none of us are economists, but is the current economy looking good for the next year or so at least?

(no offered for wearing Oxfords on a boat)

Nebby wrote:

Anonymous User wrote:The firm I'm going to for my 2L summer is pretty much 100% offer, but they did have a few no offers during the recession. After talking with recruiting, I came to the understanding that a full-time offer would be pretty much guaranteed, so long as the economy didn't tank or something crazy like that.

My understanding of the economy/stock markets/etc is very limited, so I was just curious how long in advance is it possible to know if a recession is coming? I understand that most answers are just speculation and that none of us are economists, but is the current economy looking good for the next year or so at least?

(no offered for wearing Oxfords on a boat)

Don't believe it's particularly hyperbolic to say that the Wall Street freakout that would coincide w/a Trump election as President could be a bit of an issue.

call your congresswoman

what exactly is the move if you find out there's a recession incoming? Short everything and buy gold? Break into the fed and raise the interest rate?

haus wrote:

mvp99 wrote:if you can predict a recession then short the market and become a millionaire in a year or two

Although this is a lot easier to pull off if you are sitting a big pile of cash to begin with (not the case for many students).

I was being a bit sarcastic.. i really dont think many people can predict when the next recession will happen.. what if q1 this year was the cyclical "contraction" and we're good for another 7 years

There's nothing you can do about it either way. However, what you should try to do is plug yourself into financial current events a little better, just because those are the issues that matter to your clients and it's not good to be ignorant about the world they live in.

My wealthy father has connections to Wall Street. He has rented a mountain retreat in Switzerland in preparation for the inevitable student loan crisis and collapse of the U.S. economy. I'll be sure to PM you if I hear anything.

All conjecture obviously but most experts agree one is imminent although the timetable is harder to predict. 1-1.5 years out is what most are saying.

Peck.173 wrote:Don't believe it's particularly hyperbolic to say that the Wall Street freakout that would coincide w/a Trump election as President could be a bit of an issue.

This is flame: we said this about Brexit and it normalized after a month. The truth is we really don't know what's going to happen in the future and if we did we wouldn't share it because we'd short the market and make a killing.

A recession is near.

Invest in bitcoin now

TragicBronson wrote:All conjecture obviously but most experts agree one is imminent although the timetable is harder to predict. 1-1.5 years out is what most are saying.

A recession is always imminent for some value of "imminent."

I know this doesn't actually answer your question, but what would be the plan if someone could tell you 100% there will be a recession? If there is a recession, I think most firms would have a hiccup in their 100% offer policy - a recession is a recession no matter where you go.

TragicBronson wrote:All conjecture obviously but most experts agree one is imminent although the timetable is harder to predict. 1-1.5 years out is what most are saying.

Nope.

Anonymous User wrote:The firm I'm going to for my 2L summer is pretty much 100% offer, but they did have a few no offers during the recession. After talking with recruiting, I came to the understanding that a full-time offer would be pretty much guaranteed, so long as the economy didn't tank or something crazy like that.

My understanding of the economy/stock markets/etc is very limited, so I was just curious how long in advance is it possible to know if a recession is coming? I understand that most answers are just speculation and that none of us are economists, but is the current economy looking good for the next year or so at least?

It is not possible to know if a recession has even occurred until the economy has already been in recession for two consecutive quarters. Nobody can predict a recession- not even one day in advance. If you could predict a recession, you could make your fortune on Wall Street and wouldn't need to work as a lawyer.

Of course, that won't stop people from trying. You will hear all kinds of predictions from all corners. Just remember that those predictions are only marginally more scientific than tarot cards. I was in the first summer associate class after the financial crisis hit. Nobody saw it coming in OCI season- there was just minor unease about Bear Stearns. My firm was 50% no-offers after having close to 100% offers for the prior 5 years.

All you can do is put your head down, work hard, and present your best face. Don't be the person who slacks off all summer because everyone receives offers.

If you can predict economic crisis, you should put all your money in the stock market and wait for the windfall - being a lawyer would be a huge waste of your time. Otherwise, it is pointless to worry about such.

cjw564 wrote:If you can predict economic crisis, you should put all your money in the stock market and wait for the windfall - being a lawyer would be a huge waste of your time. Otherwise, it is pointless to worry about such.

Yup, all the broke 2L's of the world are going to short the market and get rich! (Even if deadly accurate, the 5-10k investments won't exactly reap a life changing windfall).

RaceJudicata wrote:

cjw564 wrote:If you can predict economic crisis, you should put all your money in the stock market and wait for the windfall - being a lawyer would be a huge waste of your time. Otherwise, it is pointless to worry about such.

Yup, all the broke 2L's of the world are going to short the market and get rich! (Even if deadly accurate, the 5-10k investments won't exactly reap a life changing windfall).

I don't even know why I'm arguing about this, but if you really knew what was going to happen, you could certainly invest on leverage and get rich as fuck.