NY GOES TO 180k! IT HAPPENED!!!! (CovingTTTon does a 180! Holder wept.) Forum

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Re: NY to 190k??(possibly led by Paul Weiss)

Post by TLSModBot » Sun Jan 31, 2016 8:53 pm

Yeah there is massive oversupply of law students and we're looking at decreasing need for new lawyers (in BigLaw, at least) for a number of reasons.

Basically except for a small number of elite firms who can get by on prestige and a number of innovative (read: leaner and more efficient so not paying tons of new lawyers huge salaries) smaller firms, everyone else is looking at some serious lean times ahead.

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Re: NY to 190k??(possibly led by Paul Weiss)

Post by Monochromatic Oeuvre » Sun Jan 31, 2016 10:41 pm

Capitol_Idea wrote:Yeah there is massive oversupply of law students and we're looking at decreasing need for new lawyers (in BigLaw, at least) for a number of reasons.

Basically except for a small number of elite firms who can get by on prestige and a number of innovative (read: leaner and more efficient so not paying tons of new lawyers huge salaries) smaller firms, everyone else is looking at some serious lean times ahead.
How do you figure? C/o '16 had more hires than any since '07.

Not that there will be any salary movement or even that law school is a good idea, but to my knowledge they haven't stopped hiring (yet).

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Re: NY to 190k??(possibly led by Paul Weiss)

Post by Effingham » Sun Jan 31, 2016 11:06 pm

WestOfTheRest wrote:
http://www.abajournal.com/news/article/lsat_profiles_of_current_law_students_signal_more_troubles_ahead_has_low_po/?utm_source=maestro&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=weekly_email wrote: The decline in bar-exam scores and bar-pass rates is likely to continue through 2018, given the LSAT profiles of current law students, according to a law professor who has examined the data.

However, a turnaround could be ahead for those graduating after that date, says Jerry Organ, a law professor at the University of St. Thomas School of Law in Minneapolis. Organ looks at the latest LSAT data and draws his conclusions in a post at the Legal Whiteboard. Above the Law notes his findings.

The percentage of entering law students with LSAT scores at or above 160 was 32 percent in 2015, down from 33.5 percent in 2014, 33.4 percent in 2013, 36.3 percent in 2012, 39 percent in 2011 and 40.8 percent in 2010.

Meanwhile, the percentage of entering students with scores below 150 was 23.8 percent in 2015, up from 23 percent in 2014, 22.5 percent in 2013, 19.3 percent in 2012, 15.7 percent in 2011 and 14.2 percent in 2010.

Those figures show that current law grads who will graduate through 2018 had lower LSAT profiles as entering law students than the previous two graduating classes, which have already posted lower median scores on the multistate bar exam and lower bar-pass rates.
Shit guys, it's so bad that the classes of 2016 and 2017 have decided to fail the bar without even graduating

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Re: NY to 190k??(possibly led by Paul Weiss)

Post by TLSModBot » Sun Jan 31, 2016 11:12 pm

Monochromatic Oeuvre wrote:
Capitol_Idea wrote:Yeah there is massive oversupply of law students and we're looking at decreasing need for new lawyers (in BigLaw, at least) for a number of reasons.

Basically except for a small number of elite firms who can get by on prestige and a number of innovative (read: leaner and more efficient so not paying tons of new lawyers huge salaries) smaller firms, everyone else is looking at some serious lean times ahead.
How do you figure? C/o '16 had more hires than any since '07.

Not that there will be any salary movement or even that law school is a good idea, but to my knowledge they haven't stopped hiring (yet).
I've been looking at the AmLaw 200 financials for the past ten years, plus the industry outlook reports (Georgetown, Citi/Hildebrandt, and Altman Weil). There is literally no positive outlook from anyone.

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Re: NY to 190k??(possibly led by Paul Weiss)

Post by WestOfTheRest » Sun Jan 31, 2016 11:22 pm

Effingham wrote:
WestOfTheRest wrote:
http://www.abajournal.com/news/article/lsat_profiles_of_current_law_students_signal_more_troubles_ahead_has_low_po/?utm_source=maestro&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=weekly_email wrote: The decline in bar-exam scores and bar-pass rates is likely to continue through 2018, given the LSAT profiles of current law students, according to a law professor who has examined the data.

However, a turnaround could be ahead for those graduating after that date, says Jerry Organ, a law professor at the University of St. Thomas School of Law in Minneapolis. Organ looks at the latest LSAT data and draws his conclusions in a post at the Legal Whiteboard. Above the Law notes his findings.

The percentage of entering law students with LSAT scores at or above 160 was 32 percent in 2015, down from 33.5 percent in 2014, 33.4 percent in 2013, 36.3 percent in 2012, 39 percent in 2011 and 40.8 percent in 2010.

Meanwhile, the percentage of entering students with scores below 150 was 23.8 percent in 2015, up from 23 percent in 2014, 22.5 percent in 2013, 19.3 percent in 2012, 15.7 percent in 2011 and 14.2 percent in 2010.

Those figures show that current law grads who will graduate through 2018 had lower LSAT profiles as entering law students than the previous two graduating classes, which have already posted lower median scores on the multistate bar exam and lower bar-pass rates.
Shit guys, it's so bad that the classes of 2016 and 2017 have decided to fail the bar without even graduating
RC fail


Although a poorly written sentence.

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Re: NY to 190k??(possibly led by Paul Weiss)

Post by Johann » Sun Jan 31, 2016 11:58 pm

Capitol_Idea wrote:
Monochromatic Oeuvre wrote:
Capitol_Idea wrote:Yeah there is massive oversupply of law students and we're looking at decreasing need for new lawyers (in BigLaw, at least) for a number of reasons.

Basically except for a small number of elite firms who can get by on prestige and a number of innovative (read: leaner and more efficient so not paying tons of new lawyers huge salaries) smaller firms, everyone else is looking at some serious lean times ahead.
How do you figure? C/o '16 had more hires than any since '07.

Not that there will be any salary movement or even that law school is a good idea, but to my knowledge they haven't stopped hiring (yet).
I've been looking at the AmLaw 200 financials for the past ten years, plus the industry outlook reports (Georgetown, Citi/Hildebrandt, and Altman Weil). There is literally no positive outlook from anyone.
youre getting way too deep in the weeds here. it only took a decade for the legal industry to recover from a recession that most fields recovered from in twice as fast.

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Re: NY to 190k??(possibly led by Paul Weiss)

Post by TLSModBot » Sun Jan 31, 2016 11:59 pm

JohannDeMann wrote:
Capitol_Idea wrote:
Monochromatic Oeuvre wrote:
Capitol_Idea wrote:Yeah there is massive oversupply of law students and we're looking at decreasing need for new lawyers (in BigLaw, at least) for a number of reasons.

Basically except for a small number of elite firms who can get by on prestige and a number of innovative (read: leaner and more efficient so not paying tons of new lawyers huge salaries) smaller firms, everyone else is looking at some serious lean times ahead.
How do you figure? C/o '16 had more hires than any since '07.

Not that there will be any salary movement or even that law school is a good idea, but to my knowledge they haven't stopped hiring (yet).
I've been looking at the AmLaw 200 financials for the past ten years, plus the industry outlook reports (Georgetown, Citi/Hildebrandt, and Altman Weil). There is literally no positive outlook from anyone.
youre getting way too deep in the weeds here. it only took a decade for the legal industry to recover from a recession that most fields recovered from in twice as fast.
I'm doing it for a paper but it is actually interesting. The 'recovery' is kind of a false one.

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Re: NY to 190k??(possibly led by Paul Weiss)

Post by Johann » Mon Feb 01, 2016 12:07 am

Capitol_Idea wrote:
JohannDeMann wrote:
Capitol_Idea wrote:
Monochromatic Oeuvre wrote:
Capitol_Idea wrote:Yeah there is massive oversupply of law students and we're looking at decreasing need for new lawyers (in BigLaw, at least) for a number of reasons.

Basically except for a small number of elite firms who can get by on prestige and a number of innovative (read: leaner and more efficient so not paying tons of new lawyers huge salaries) smaller firms, everyone else is looking at some serious lean times ahead.
How do you figure? C/o '16 had more hires than any since '07.

Not that there will be any salary movement or even that law school is a good idea, but to my knowledge they haven't stopped hiring (yet).
I've been looking at the AmLaw 200 financials for the past ten years, plus the industry outlook reports (Georgetown, Citi/Hildebrandt, and Altman Weil). There is literally no positive outlook from anyone.
youre getting way too deep in the weeds here. it only took a decade for the legal industry to recover from a recession that most fields recovered from in twice as fast.
I'm doing it for a paper but it is actually interesting. The 'recovery' is kind of a false one.
i agree with you. i was making fun of this argument that just happened:

Cap: law is an industry in decline
Idiot: But 2007 had more hires than 2016!!!

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Re: NY to 190k??(possibly led by Paul Weiss)

Post by Monochromatic Oeuvre » Mon Feb 01, 2016 1:42 am

"The industry is declining" ≠ "There is a decreasing need for new lawyers"

Firms might be stagnant for another decade for all I know, but it's not as though they're not hiring anyone.

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Re: NY to 190k??(possibly led by Paul Weiss)

Post by UnicornHunter » Mon Feb 01, 2016 2:09 am

WestOfTheRest wrote:
http://www.abajournal.com/news/article/lsat_profiles_of_current_law_students_signal_more_troubles_ahead_has_low_po/?utm_source=maestro&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=weekly_email wrote: The decline in bar-exam scores and bar-pass rates is likely to continue through 2018, given the LSAT profiles of current law students, according to a law professor who has examined the data.

However, a turnaround could be ahead for those graduating after that date, says Jerry Organ, a law professor at the University of St. Thomas School of Law in Minneapolis. Organ looks at the latest LSAT data and draws his conclusions in a post at the Legal Whiteboard. Above the Law notes his findings.

The percentage of entering law students with LSAT scores at or above 160 was 32 percent in 2015, down from 33.5 percent in 2014, 33.4 percent in 2013, 36.3 percent in 2012, 39 percent in 2011 and 40.8 percent in 2010.

Meanwhile, the percentage of entering students with scores below 150 was 23.8 percent in 2015, up from 23 percent in 2014, 22.5 percent in 2013, 19.3 percent in 2012, 15.7 percent in 2011 and 14.2 percent in 2010.

Those figures show that current law grads who will graduate through 2018 had lower LSAT profiles as entering law students than the previous two graduating classes, which have already posted lower median scores on the multistate bar exam and lower bar-pass rates.

Organ anticipates a continued decline through 2018 in median bar exam scores and bar-pass rates—unless there are increases in attrition, significant improvement in academic support programs, or improved bar prep efforts by graduates.

On a positive note, Organ notes that the number and quality of law school applicants, as measured by LSAT and undergraduate grades, appear to be on the upswing this year. “If these trends continue,” he writes, “the fall 2015 entering class may represent the ‘bottom,’ ” he writes.
Another reason to increase salaries over the long term. This article also fails to mention the decline in applicants, which is probably amplifying this issue.

Not necessarily a reason to raise salaries today, but it does create some pressure.
By fails to mention did you mean devotes an entire paragraph to?

Anyway, it's not like the top schools have had to cut their class sizes at all, so the pool of people the firms that might raise salaries draw from is the exact same size (tippy top of regional schools + t14).

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Re: NY to 190k??(possibly led by Paul Weiss)

Post by Johann » Mon Feb 01, 2016 2:22 am

apologies:
Cap: there is a decreasing need for new lawyers
Idiot: But 2007 had more new hires than 2016!!!

you can try to lawyer/word it how you want. but trying to spin having more entry level positions in an industry 10 years ago as a positive is only something a lawyer would do. there are 10 million more jobs (7%) in the US today than in 2007. the S&P500 is up almost 500 points (35%). lawyer new hires are down. that's concerning.

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Re: NY to 190k??(possibly led by Paul Weiss)

Post by WestOfTheRest » Mon Feb 01, 2016 2:34 am

TheUnicornHunter wrote:
By fails to mention did you mean devotes an entire paragraph to?

Anyway, it's not like the top schools have had to cut their class sizes at all, so the pool of people the firms that might raise salaries draw from is the exact same size (tippy top of regional schools + t14).
Top schools will never have to cut their class sizes. The question isn't whether top schools are cutting class size, but whether the entering class is as qualified as previous entering classes. The answer based on test scores and medians at top schools appears to be no.

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Re: NY to 190k??(possibly led by Paul Weiss)

Post by El Pollito » Mon Feb 01, 2016 2:36 am

WestOfTheRest wrote:
TheUnicornHunter wrote:
By fails to mention did you mean devotes an entire paragraph to?

Anyway, it's not like the top schools have had to cut their class sizes at all, so the pool of people the firms that might raise salaries draw from is the exact same size (tippy top of regional schools + t14).
Top schools will never have to cut their class sizes. The question isn't whether top schools are cutting class size, but whether the entering class is as qualified as previous entering classes. The answer based on test scores and medians at top schools appears to be no.
they already have what are you talking about

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Re: NY to 190k??(possibly led by Paul Weiss)

Post by UnicornHunter » Mon Feb 01, 2016 3:11 am

El Pollito wrote:
WestOfTheRest wrote:
TheUnicornHunter wrote:
By fails to mention did you mean devotes an entire paragraph to?

Anyway, it's not like the top schools have had to cut their class sizes at all, so the pool of people the firms that might raise salaries draw from is the exact same size (tippy top of regional schools + t14).
Top schools will never have to cut their class sizes. The question isn't whether top schools are cutting class size, but whether the entering class is as qualified as previous entering classes. The answer based on test scores and medians at top schools appears to be no.
they already have what are you talking about
Really? I didn't think any of the top schools had cut their class sizes, but maybe I'm wrong on that.

anyway, I think the idea that firms are going to raise salaries because median LSAT scores are dropping by like a point is beyond absurd.

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Re: NY to 190k??(possibly led by Paul Weiss)

Post by Monochromatic Oeuvre » Mon Feb 01, 2016 10:05 am

JohannDeMann wrote:apologies:
Cap: there is a decreasing need for new lawyers
Idiot: But 2007 had more new hires than 2016!!!

you can try to lawyer/word it how you want. but trying to spin having more entry level positions in an industry 10 years ago as a positive is only something a lawyer would do. there are 10 million more jobs (7%) in the US today than in 2007. the S&P500 is up almost 500 points (35%). lawyer new hires are down. that's concerning.
I'm not saying it's a positive. I'm saying entry-level hiring has been increasing for a little while now*. It's not decreasing; rather, it fell off a fucking cliff in 2008 and hasn't fully recovered. You can laugh and say that's not any better--and you're right--but they mean different things for juniors, law students and 0Ls. And you don't need to conflate the two. There's no need to say "number of lawyers decreasing, sky is falling, we're all about to be fired" when "law school tuition skyrockets, Biglaw stagnation continues, associate purchasing power erodes, and nobody makes partner" gets the point across.

*Usual disclaimer: Biglaw is still probably fucked, and law school is still a bad idea for 97% of prospective students

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Re: NY to 190k??(possibly led by Paul Weiss)

Post by DELG » Mon Feb 01, 2016 11:47 am

TheUnicornHunter wrote:
El Pollito wrote:
WestOfTheRest wrote:
TheUnicornHunter wrote:
By fails to mention did you mean devotes an entire paragraph to?

Anyway, it's not like the top schools have had to cut their class sizes at all, so the pool of people the firms that might raise salaries draw from is the exact same size (tippy top of regional schools + t14).
Top schools will never have to cut their class sizes. The question isn't whether top schools are cutting class size, but whether the entering class is as qualified as previous entering classes. The answer based on test scores and medians at top schools appears to be no.
they already have what are you talking about
Really? I didn't think any of the top schools had cut their class sizes, but maybe I'm wrong on that.

anyway, I think the idea that firms are going to raise salaries because median LSAT scores are dropping by like a point is beyond absurd.
I think NU's current class is half the size of my class.

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Re: NY to 190k??(possibly led by Paul Weiss)

Post by UnicornHunter » Mon Feb 01, 2016 11:50 am

DELG wrote:
TheUnicornHunter wrote:
El Pollito wrote:
WestOfTheRest wrote:
TheUnicornHunter wrote:
By fails to mention did you mean devotes an entire paragraph to?

Anyway, it's not like the top schools have had to cut their class sizes at all, so the pool of people the firms that might raise salaries draw from is the exact same size (tippy top of regional schools + t14).
Top schools will never have to cut their class sizes. The question isn't whether top schools are cutting class size, but whether the entering class is as qualified as previous entering classes. The answer based on test scores and medians at top schools appears to be no.
they already have what are you talking about
Really? I didn't think any of the top schools had cut their class sizes, but maybe I'm wrong on that.

anyway, I think the idea that firms are going to raise salaries because median LSAT scores are dropping by like a point is beyond absurd.
I think NU's current class is half the size of my class.
That's nutso. Chicago's class sizes haven't changed, but they were on the small side to begin with.

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Re: NY to 190k??(possibly led by Paul Weiss)

Post by El Pollito » Mon Feb 01, 2016 11:51 am

CLS slashed a ton, of course after taking 100 transfers to make a 500 person class my year right before OCI.

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Re: NY to 190k??(possibly led by Paul Weiss)

Post by UnicornHunter » Mon Feb 01, 2016 11:59 am

Guess I'd better start budgeting for an extra 30k/year then.

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Re: NY to 190k??(possibly led by Paul Weiss)

Post by Tls2016 » Mon Feb 01, 2016 12:04 pm

There was just an article on Bloomberg about this, leading with Michigan cutting its class size:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... r-students

But hasnt Harvard been increasing its massive class size, or is that only for transfers and not incoming class?

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Re: NY to 190k??(possibly led by Paul Weiss)

Post by Tls2016 » Mon Feb 01, 2016 12:07 pm

TheUnicornHunter wrote:Guess I'd better start budgeting for an extra 30k/year then.
What they cut in incoming students, they make up for by getting full freight from transfers (whose stats are irrelevant for ranking.) I guess you need to look graduating class size v incoming class size. Agreed that Chicago might be an anomaly.

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Re: NY to 190k??(possibly led by Paul Weiss)

Post by UnicornHunter » Mon Feb 01, 2016 12:11 pm

Tls2016 wrote:
TheUnicornHunter wrote:Guess I'd better start budgeting for an extra 30k/year then.
What they cut in incoming students, they make up for by getting full freight from transfers (whose stats are irrelevant for ranking.) I guess you need to look graduating class size v incoming class size. Agreed that Chicago might be an anomaly.
Good call. Transfers never not fucking me.

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Re: NY to 190k??(possibly led by Paul Weiss)

Post by TLSModBot » Mon Feb 01, 2016 12:20 pm

GULC to 190 Transfers

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Re: NY to 190k??(possibly led by Paul Weiss)

Post by Tiago Splitter » Mon Feb 01, 2016 1:43 pm

JohannDeMann wrote:apologies:
Cap: there is a decreasing need for new lawyers
Idiot: But 2007 had more new hires than 2016!!!

you can try to lawyer/word it how you want. but trying to spin having more entry level positions in an industry 10 years ago as a positive is only something a lawyer would do. there are 10 million more jobs (7%) in the US today than in 2007. the S&P500 is up almost 500 points (35%). lawyer new hires are down. that's concerning.
The problem is 2007-2008 was a crazy local maximum, so it's always gonna look bad compared to those years. If we wanna play the arbitrary endpoints game we can also say that biglaw hiring has doubled over the last 20 years. As always the truth is somewhere in the middle.

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Re: NY to 190k??(possibly led by Paul Weiss)

Post by 2014 » Mon Feb 01, 2016 1:59 pm

TheUnicornHunter wrote: That's nutso. Chicago's class sizes haven't changed, but they were on the small side to begin with.
If by Chicago you mean U.Chi. then they trimmed them by 20ish for the c/o 2015 (used to be 205ish 1Ls now it's been like 180-185). I think we started taking more transfers (but not 20 more) to compensate.

If you are talking about Chicago summer class sizes I have no meaningful contributions other than to say it whooshed me since the context was NU's class size.

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