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I'm not completely the right person to start this thread, but it's getting late in the game if there will be any time for boundless speculation by people who don't actually have any more information than the rest of us.

Thing To Remember #1: Cravath will not pay a single dime more than they feel they absolutely have to.
Thing To Remember #2: Beachfront atrium renovations in Palm Beach don't pay for themselves.
Thing To Remember #3: No matter what the bonuses are, associates will complain. And within a week, they'll be back to licking the bottom of partners' shoes. And if they don't, there are hundreds of Fordham 164's who will be glad to.
Thing To Remember #4: The chart below.


Cravath-scale bonuses, first-year (pro-rated):

2000: $40k
2001: $20k
2002: $17.5k
2003: $17.5k
2004: $30k
2005: $30k
2006: $35k
2007: $45k
2008: $17.5k
2009: $7.5k
2010: $7.5k
2011: $10k (including spring)
2012: $10k
2013: $10k

Total first-year comp (real value, 2013 dollars):

2000: $165k ($224k)
2001: $145k ($191k)
2002: $142.5k ($185k)
2003: $142.5k ($181k)
2004: $155k ($191k)
2005: $155k ($185k)
2006: $180k ($209k)
2007: $205k ($231k)
2008: $177.5k ($193k)
2009: $167.5k ($182k)
2010: $167.5k ($179k)
2011: $170k ($176.5k)
2012: $170k ($173k)
2013: $170k ($170k)

Cravath PPP (real value, 2013 dollars):

2000: $2.25M ($3.05M)
2001: $2.13M ($2.81M)
2002: $1.96M ($2.54M)
2003: $2.08M ($2.64M)
2004: $2.21M ($2.73M)
2005: $2.60M ($3.11M)
2006: $3.02M ($3.50M)
2007: $3.30M ($3.72M)
2008: $2.52M ($2.73M)
2009: $2.72M ($2.96M)
2010: $3.17M ($3.40M)
2011: $3.10M ($3.22M)
2012: $3.43M ($3.49M)
2013: $3.29M ($3.29M)

Law school tution, Penn (real value, 2013 dollars):

2000: $27k ($37k)
2001: $28k ($37k)
2002: $29k ($38k)
2003: $31k ($39k)
2004: $33k ($41k)
2005: $35k ($42k)
2006: $37k ($43k)
2007: $39k ($44k)
2008: $42k ($46k)
2009: $44k ($48k)
2010: $45k ($48k)
2011: $48k ($50k)
2012: $50k ($51k)
2013: $52k ($52k)
2014: $53k ($52k)

The ship be sinking.

The lateral hiring market is extremely tight right now, which definitely increases the chances of bonuses going up (maybe to $12.5k or $15k for the Class of 2013). On the other hand, the lateral market was tight last year, too (but not so much in previous years), and bonuses didn't go up then. Also worth pointing out I suppose that Cravath had a somewhat lackluster year last year compared to their peers, but I'm not sure what their performance is expected to be like this year.

Looks like we missed the party

That chart is so depressing.

I guess that Cravath stays Cravath, but someone else will depart from the Cravath scale. Now would be a good time for STB or S&C or Skadden to try and shake up the system again.

I mean, bonuses have been flat for five years, basically, but they have always gone up eventually in the past. And I find it really hard to believe that the boomers of 1998 or 2004 or 2006-07 are less miserly than the boomers of today.

WhirledWorld wrote:That chart is so depressing.

I guess that Cravath stays Cravath, but someone else will depart from the Cravath scale. Now would be a good time for STB or S&C or Skadden to try and shake up the system again.

I mean, bonuses have been flat for five years, basically, but they have always gone up eventually in the past. And I find it really hard to believe that the boomers of 1998 or 2004 or 2006-07 are less miserly than the boomers of today.

The world changed during the 2008 recession, and people have realized it and taken advantage of it. This is one example.

STB went to 15k for 2013 today. Let's see if others follow.

Anonymous User wrote:STB went to 15k for 2013 today. Let's see if others follow.

Confirming this is the case. This was totally unexpected after STB followed Cravath last year when it was a record year for them. Seems like all the top firms have to follow suit.

Full STB scale:

2014: 15,000, prorated
2013: 15,000
2012: 25,000
2011: 40,000
2010: 55,000
2009: 70,000
2008: 85,000
2007: 100,000
2006: 100,000
2005 and above: Case-by-case

Been a very long time since the lockstep scale included six-figure bonuses.

Anonymous User wrote:

Anonymous User wrote:STB went to 15k for 2013 today. Let's see if others follow.

Confirming this is the case. This was totally unexpected after STB followed Cravath last year when it was a record year for them. Seems like all the top firms have to follow suit.

Full STB scale:

2014: 15,000, prorated
2013: 15,000
2012: 25,000
2011: 40,000
2010: 55,000
2009: 70,000
2008: 85,000
2007: 100,000
2006 and above: 100,000

Been a very long time since the lockstep scale included six-figure bonuses.

WHAT.

NO WAY.

All hail Simpson Thacher Jesus. First the bump up to 160, now this.

For comparison to last year's Cravath scale:

Anonymous User wrote:

Anonymous User wrote:STB went to 15k for 2013 today. Let's see if others follow.

Confirming this is the case. This was totally unexpected after STB followed Cravath last year when it was a record year for them. Seems like all the top firms have to follow suit.

Full STB scale:

2014: 15,000, prorated -- 10,000, prorated
2013: 15,000 -- 10,000
2012: 25,000 -- 14,000
2011: 40,000 -- 20,000
2010: 55,000 -- 27,000
2009: 70,000 -- 34,000
2008: 85,000 -- 40,000
2007: 100,000 -- 50,000
2006: 100,000 -- 60,000
2005 and above: Case-by-case -- N/A

Been a very long time since the lockstep scale included six-figure bonuses.

If true, STB more or less doubled the bonus scale (except for first years).

STB had another good year it seems like, and hired at on of summers. We've heard rumblings of how bad midlevel retention is right now.

This plausible & hopeful.

What's the source for the STB bonuses? It's seems way too early for the official bonus email to have already gone out. And without an official email what are we relying on -- the rumor mill?

BUT I WANT TO BELIEVE

yay simpson. so it's fair to conclude Cravath, DPW, S&C, Cleary ect will match?

jbagelboy wrote:yay simpson. so it's fair to conclude Cravath, DPW, S&C, Cleary ect will match?

Forget matching, I want a bidding war.

lol

I bet NY V10 match and most of the rest don't. Rich get richer scenario.

B.B. Homemaker wrote:

jbagelboy wrote:yay simpson. so it's fair to conclude Cravath, DPW, S&C, Cleary ect will match?

Forget matching, I want a bidding war.

lol

Yes, please.

What is the typical definition of "pro-rated" for stub-year first year associates that started in Sept, Oct, or Nov of 2014, e.g. is it 1/3 for Sept starters and 1/4 for Oct starters?

KirkwoodGAO wrote:What is the typical definition of "pro-rated" for stub-year first year associates that started in Sept, Oct, or Nov of 2014, e.g. is it 1/3 for Sept starters and 1/4 for Oct starters?

It's a percentage based on the exact day you started. If you started on Sept. 30, you'll get exactly 25% as you worked at the firm for exactly 1/4 of the year.

here's to hoping for a better bonus season.

and there was much rejoicing

Anonymous User wrote:I bet NY V10 match and most of the rest don't. Rich get richer scenario.

K&E associates don't need to worry about matching when they already SHATTER THE MARKET: http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thr ... 2#22115272

WhirledWorld wrote:

Anonymous User wrote:I bet NY V10 match and most of the rest don't. Rich get richer scenario.

K&E associates don't need to worry about matching when they already SHATTER THE MARKET: http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thr ... 2#22115272

a secondary question will be how kirkland, irell, ect. that pay around $15K to first years (if you count only high billing first years at k&e) but market themselves as "above market" respond.

WhirledWorld wrote:

Anonymous User wrote:I bet NY V10 match and most of the rest don't. Rich get richer scenario.

K&E associates don't need to worry about matching when they already SHATTER THE MARKET: http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thr ... 2#22115272

You realize these days that means maybe making about 2x market if you're at the top of your class year? Not really shattering...

zweitbester wrote:

WhirledWorld wrote:

Anonymous User wrote:I bet NY V10 match and most of the rest don't. Rich get richer scenario.

K&E associates don't need to worry about matching when they already SHATTER THE MARKET: http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thr ... 2#22115272

You realize these days that means maybe making about 2x market if you're at the top of your class year? Not really shattering...

I thought anon was intentionally facetious