Is now the best time to enter biglaw? Forum

[lawstudent_87]

I realize this theory is much too optimistic for TLS, but....

Will those who are entering biglaw now be at a significant advantage (relative to today) in terms of career path? I feel like we will be because the baby-boomer partners are going to be retiring in large numbers over the next decade, so it seems like it would be easier to make partner. Additionally, the currently small SA classes put us at an advantage because in 5 years from now there will likely be less "5th year associates" around than there currently are now. Thus, there will be more exit options/lateraling opportunities due to the pool of qualified applicants being smaller.

Thoughts?

[rad lulz]

No bc the biglaw model is in flux

[lawstudent_87]

No bc the biglaw model is in flux

How so?

[Cogburn87]

I realize this theory is much too optimistic for TLS, but....

Will those who are entering biglaw now be at a significant advantage (relative to today) in terms of career path? I feel like we will be because the baby-boomer partners are going to be retiring in large numbers over the next decade, so it seems like it would be easier to make partner. Additionally, the currently small SA classes put us at an advantage because in 5 years from now there will likely be less "5th year associates" around than there currently are now. Thus, there will be more exit options/lateraling opportunities due to the pool of qualified applicants being smaller.

Thoughts?

lol

[t-14orbust]

60s were good

[JusticeJackson]

.

[TooOld4This]

Short answer no.

Longer answer. Yes, there is the potential that there will be an uptick in work such that firms find themselves understaffed and scrambling. It happens periodically. Much of the late 1990s salary spike was driven because demand for legal services quickly outstripped supply of qualified attorneys. Law firms tend to be reactionary in their hiring, so they get caught on both the upswing and the downswing. Fifth years and lower in BigLaw could benefit from this. Or we could be in a stagnation like the one that existed from the early 1980s until the late 1990s. Not only that, but the way clients consume legal services is changing and some functions are becoming increasingly computer based. Each of these factors suggest a big boom is not likely.

So, if you are in BigLaw, sure think positive. There has been a contraction in hiring. Firms seem to be operating closer to capacity now. You can't easily plug a 1st year into a 5th year slot. BUT, there is nothing about this that makes it a good idea to decide to go into law right now. The number of students far outpaces demand. Debt levels are going up. The chances of a good outcome (let alone a great one) make the cost of rolling the dice usually the wrong move.

[thesealocust]

Litigation vs. anything else (corporate, tax, regulatory, etc.) is also huge. Litigation is changing a hell of a lot more than transactional.

Somehow outsourcing signature pages to India hasn't become a thing yet.

[09042014]

Litigation vs. anything else (corporate, tax, regulatory, etc.) is also huge. Litigation is changing a hell of a lot more than transactional.

Somehow outsourcing signature pages to India hasn't become a thing yet.

Outsourcing hurts your chances of getting a lit job, but only low level junior work has gotten outsourced. And its not really india that is the problem it's predictive coding.

Once you get the job, it's probably better that its been outsourced.

Doc review isn't really legal work.

[Dafaq]

IMO. Yes. Especially in Litigation

[sikemenow]

Litigation vs. anything else (corporate, tax, regulatory, etc.) is also huge. Litigation is changing a hell of a lot more than transactional.

Somehow outsourcing signature pages to India hasn't become a thing yet.

Care to expand on this? Anybody else feel free to pitch in as well.

[thesealocust]

Litigation vs. anything else (corporate, tax, regulatory, etc.) is also huge. Litigation is changing a hell of a lot more than transactional.

Somehow outsourcing signature pages to India hasn't become a thing yet.

Care to expand on this? Anybody else feel free to pitch in as well.

My market impression is that there's a big supply/demand imbalance between litigation and not-litigation. As litigation jobs disappears, litigators don't, and so you have more senior people fighting over fewer jobs when it comes time to lateral, fewer partnership openings, etc.

I'm not saying everything is great in not-litigation, but I get the distinct impression that it's harder to move around as a litigator now than in not-litigation.

[jbagelboy]

No bc the biglaw model is in flux

How so?

Not sure if this is what rad was alluding to specifically, but there's a structural problem with having 100+ firms all billing at obscenely high rates such that only massive corporations in a select set of industries (primarily revolving around finance and tech) can afford to pay for their services. It means firms have new pressure to scramble for work and market themselves to the same basic set of clients within the F500 that wasn't as crucial to the enterprise pre-crash and some people say it's not sustainable. For example, in the 1990's/early 2000's all the accounting firms were merged or swallowed up into a handful of major players, and there's speculation law firms could head in the same direction; this is only fueled by all the major merger talk passing through the airwaves every so often. Not sure about this theory but it's floated from time to time.

So it's suggested that to be super-safe in big law, go to a very top firm with a stable clientele that isn't likely to fold or merge within the next 10-15 years (which not only severely limits partnership opportunities but also typically involves shaving off a portion of the associate class). If you're coming into one of these firms, it could be a "good" time to be in big law. Otherwise you could argue there's pervasive risk in this economy.

On the other hand, there remains a pretty high demand for legal services at sub-market pricing from smaller companies that can't afford the major player rates. So there's a real disconnect between the supply of legal services offered at firms targeted by young attorneys and the demand. But this might be optimistic too.

[09042014]

The problem is that there isn't really a lit of demand for sub market rate service. You've go to go way cheaper. Firms that try to split the difference are being hit hardest. Clients want either the cheapest or the best.

[jbagelboy]

The problem is that there isn't really a lit of demand for sub market rate service. You've go to go way cheaper. Firms that try to split the difference are being hit hardest. Clients want either the cheapest or the best.

I don't mean like $300 I mean like $75. there are companies that actually desperately need legal services but can't afford it

[Nomo]

Its so hard to answer this question.

Smaller class sizes could mean that you're less likely to get pushed out in year 5. But, its hard to say whether it will have an effect on your ability to become a partner, especially an equity partner. The rules seem to be that you only get to equity partner if you can bring in real business; and its really hard for a 10 or 12th year attorney to bring in business at the rates biglaw charges. As for mass retirement/deaths of baby boomer lawyers, we have no idea when that's coming. And when it does come its possible that it means massive instability, rather than promotions for everyone. When a rainmaking partner retires its hardly a guarantee that his firm will continue to get his old business - they could go with anyone. Which is one reason why retirement of the baby boomers could lead to a major shakeups, with a number of botiques, midlaw, and new firms rising to the top when the dust settles.

[NotMyRealName09]

I realize this theory is much too optimistic for TLS, but....

Will those who are entering biglaw now be at a significant advantage (relative to today) in terms of career path? I feel like we will be because the baby-boomer partners are going to be retiring in large numbers over the next decade, so it seems like it would be easier to make partner. Additionally, the currently small SA classes put us at an advantage because in 5 years from now there will likely be less "5th year associates" around than there currently are now. Thus, there will be more exit options/lateraling opportunities due to the pool of qualified applicants being smaller.

Thoughts?

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