Lets compare Boalt's curve to a slightly lower ranked law school: Michigan (

jk jk peer school)
Michigan's Curve:
Grade Target % Minimum and Maximum %
A+ and A 10 % (0 to 3 % for A+; 7 to 11 % for A)
A- 15 % (13 to 17 %)
B+ 30 % (26 to 34 %)
B 25 % (21 to 29 %)
B- 10% (8 to 12 %)
C+ 7 % (5 to 9 %)
C and below 3 % (0 to 5 % for C)
C-, D+, D, E (0 to 4 % for C-, D+, D, E)
Mean 3.19 (3.13 to 3.25)
GPA values:
A+ 4.3, A 4.0, A- 3.7, B+ 3.3, B 3.0, B- 2.7,
C+ 2.3, C 2.0, C- 1.7, D+ 1.3, D 1.0, E 0.0
--LinkRemoved--
And Boalt's first year curve:
HH - 10%
H - 30%
P - 60%
http://www.law.berkeley.edu/1050.htm
So a student with the mean GPA (3.19) at Michigan's transcript probably often looks like one of two things:
1. A combination of B+s (given to the top 26-55 percent in any given class and scored as 3.3) and Bs (56th-80th percent and 3.0) to yield around the mean of 3.19. To be precise probably 4 B+s and 3 Bs is very close to mean.
2. An A- (3.7 - top 11th to 25th percent) or two, balanced out by a B- or two (2.7 and top 80th to 90th percent) percent to again yield the mean of 3.19ish.
Now looks at what each student's scores would yield on Boalt's curve.
Student #1: On Boalt's curve some of student #1's B+s (which anywhere from top 26th to 55th percent in a class) would be in the top 40% and yield an H. But a B+ is far from an HH which is represents only the top 10% (As and A+s on Michigan's curve). Some of Student #1s B+s would just be a P. All of Student #1s Bs would be a P.
So if student #1 has 3 Bs they have 3 Ps. If they have 4 B+s we can be generous and say they had enough luck to be in the top 40% 3 out of 4 of those times. So the same performance on Boalt's curve would yield 3 Hs and 4 Ps.
Student #2: probably has fairly similiar grades. Their B- is a clear P and their A- is a clear H but neither are good enough for HHs. If the rest of their transcript is dotted with B+s and Bs some of the B+s are Hs and some are Ps and all the Bs are Ps. Once again yielding probably 2-4 Hs and no HHs.
Lets look at one more average student and how they fare. If a student is literally on the 50th percent line in every single class at Michigan those are all B+s which yields a 3.3 (above median) but at Boalt those are straight Ps.
In fact that person is undistinguishable (the subpass exists at Boalt but is rarely given) from those who received a raw score in every class that at Michigan would have been the equivalent of C or even a C-. Yikes. Straight Ps sting because no one can say whether you were last in the class or very close the median (Boalt's grading explanation page on their website admits as much).
However, it is my feeling that the disparity in how hard people work in different semesters and in different classes, how flat the curve is (in terms of raw score), and how Professors grade is divergent enough that if you were the exact average student at Boalt you'd be at the 50% line sometimes, below other times, and creep above 40% and get an H sometimes. You'd likely end up with at least a couple of Hs.
All of this to me says that probably the median is 2-4 Hs and 3-5 Ps.
Do average students at Michigan have even one A or an A+ at Michigan after first year? I doubt it because to hit the mean GPA they'd have to also get basically straight Bs or a B- or two. I would guess that fewer then half (and maybe much fewer) have even 1 HH but its impossible to say becuase we don't know the shape of the distribution.
I've heard Boalt's CDO says to feel "confident" about your chances to get a firm offer and probably to have "choices" (multiple offers) at OCI you need as many Hs as Ps (and HHs count as two Hs). Given that there are 7 first year classes that says: 4 Hs and 3 Ps is comfortable; or 2 HHs, 1 H, and 4 Ps; or 1 HH, 2 Hs and 4 Ps.
But because the distribution is purposely obscure and the grading system dosen't make fine distinctions I'd guess most firms (the most elite probably want mostly HH and H) just look for a fairly even mix of Hs and Ps and then fit. Anything better is great and anything lower is challenging.
Diversity and IP hiring probably have an effect too (and Boalt probably has more of both then the average T10) and some firms probably do care about Law Review and Boalt has pure write-on so that shakes things up a bit. Probably more Boalties then an average T10 school also choose not participate in OCI (including some with excellent grades). Also probably more Boalties come off as a poor fit for biglaw then other schools (I mean its a seriously weird place

).
But all those factors aside 45% of Boalt's class of 2011 got an NLJ 250 job last year (
http://www.law.com/jsp/nlj/PubArticleNL ... 2543436520) which I believe they must have interviewed for the summer of 2009 (which was ITE) correct me if I'm wrong.
So I'd guess you probably want to be in the top 40% (which is what I'd guess equal Hs and Ps are) to have some confidence and top 60% (which I'd guess is 2Hs) to have a decent shot (though I'm sure some people get biglaw with straight Ps or 1 H).
Long rambling post aside - all this says to me that something I'd bet 3 Hs and 4 Ps is median but that because of the strangeness of the curve there is a little more risk above that and a little more opportunity below that then at peer schools and intangibles count a little more.
I'm sure there are many faulty assumptions in my stastical analysis but thats why I went into law

not math - so if you see them I'd be happy for you to point them.