Dow is down 400 points Forum

Post by **romothesavior** » Thu Aug 04, 2011 4:10 pm

romothesavior wrote:
Morgan12Oak wrote:It is time for the correction to finally begin... which they should have let happen 3 years ago.
Please explain what the "correction" is.

Still waiting for this, Morgan.

expungemalice · Post by **expungemalice** » Thu Aug 04, 2011 4:12 pm

i believe hes referring to the market correction

rayiner · Post by **rayiner** » Thu Aug 04, 2011 4:14 pm

Morgan12Oak wrote:Obviously a drop in dow =/= drop in legal hiring but lets get real here. This isn't one drop. It's 8/9 days down with bad economic indicators. Legal hiring is not always rational either. When managing partners in NY see these declines in the stock market and the massive destruction of wealth (some of it their own), I promise you they aren't thinking rationally.

The economy is terrible.

1) Official unemployment is at ~9%, but if you look at the actual unemployment including underemployed and people who have just plain given up, it is much closer to 20%.

2) Spending Power. Where is the future spending power coming from? The vast majority of college graduates are underemployed compared to their debt and many are even facing negative amoritzation with their student loans. The student debt burdens are almost acting as a mortgage for a huge amount of our generation which will severely hamper their present and future spending power.

3) Today we passed 100% of our annual GDP in national debt. The annual interest payments on it aren't getting any smaller...

How many of these things are things we didn't know months ago? Law firm hiring partners might not have, but the bankers certainly did and they've been proceeding at the current pace knowing that information.

To see a real crash in hiring we need to know some information that we don't already. When the market crashed last time it was because Lehman and Bear went down and nobody had any idea the big impact it would have on the rest of Wall Street. There is no shoe dropping yet, just drops in investor confidence.

maxm2764 · Post by **maxm2764** » Thu Aug 04, 2011 4:18 pm

Morgan12Oak wrote:Obviously a drop in dow =/= drop in legal hiring but lets get real here. This isn't one drop. It's 8/9 days down with bad economic indicators. Legal hiring is not always rational either. When managing partners in NY see these declines in the stock market and the massive destruction of wealth (some of it their own), I promise you they aren't thinking rationally.

Obviously. Did the managing partners tell you this themselves?

Morgan12Oak wrote:
The economy is terrible.

Oh, rly?

Morgan12Oak · Post by **Morgan12Oak** » Thu Aug 04, 2011 4:22 pm

Well, the correction I'm referring to is the fact that something has to give in the economy and how the correction occurs is largely dependent on government policy. At the same time there are serious questions about how we are going to create jobs and reduce unemployment. It's not so simple anymore to do so. In the 40's it was relatively easy because you would need hard labor to increase and generate more productivity. But, in our day and age companies are so scalable on such an amazing magnitude that one additional job can handle a much larger boost in productivity. Therefore, our country can still achieve the same economic growth with a significantly less boost in employment. There's the obvious problem there of how do we help those who are left out of that equation. This is exacerbated by the fact that a significant amount of our economic growth is in the tech industries and web 2.0 where 100 people can have a multi-billion dollar company. In the past, this was unachievable simply because value had to be deriven in large part from actual labor rather. For example:

If we continue on the current path of adding another 7-8 trillion (but hey, it would have been 9-10 if we didn't pass the "spending cut bill" right?) onto our national debt over the next decade then we're going to see a massive increase in taxes and/or just a firesale of all the entitlement programs.

If we cut spending now the way we would need to or raise taxes now in order to create a "balanced budget", there's going to be those obvious effects as well.

Continuing below:

billyez · Post by **billyez** » Thu Aug 04, 2011 4:25 pm

Now is the time to buy. Wish I had the money to invest...

Morgan12Oak · Post by **Morgan12Oak** » Thu Aug 04, 2011 4:26 pm

Sorry, don't know why it cut me off. But, there's also significant worries in the housing sector as well. A lot of people are still in homes they cannot and never could have afforded. HAMP was a failure of rather epic proportions and I believe as an end result only modified maybe half a million mortgages. And I think there still remains a question about the banks balance sheets.

In any event, the money printedin the past few years will surely cause inflation, but as someone aluded to in the past, this would actually probably be a boon to a significant amount of our country.

Since most of you don't seem to care or just reject my opinions without interjecting much of your own, I'll just stop there.

NYC Law · Post by **NYC Law** » Thu Aug 04, 2011 4:27 pm

billyez wrote:Now is the time to buy. Wish I had the money to invest...

Yeah, the perfect time to buy is when all the major news websites have in large red font: "BREAKING NEWS, STOCKS PLUMMETING AMONG MAJOR GLOBAL ECONOMIC FEARS".

There's going to be a shit storm tomorrow.

billyez · Post by **billyez** » Thu Aug 04, 2011 4:32 pm

NYC Law wrote:
billyez wrote:Now is the time to buy. Wish I had the money to invest...
Yeah, the perfect time to buy is when all the major news websites have in large red font: "BREAKING NEWS, STOCKS PLUMMETING AMONG MAJOR GLOBAL ECONOMIC FEARS".

Correct.

thebookcollector · Post by **thebookcollector** » Thu Aug 04, 2011 4:38 pm

If a reduction in government spending is supposed to be a boom for the private sector...

WHY THE HELL IS THE PRIVATE SECTOR BEING SO DICKISH THIS WEEK?

maxm2764 · Post by **maxm2764** » Thu Aug 04, 2011 4:38 pm

NYC Law wrote:
billyez wrote:
Yeah, the perfect time to buy is when all the major news websites have in large red font: "BREAKING NEWS, STOCKS PLUMMETING AMONG MAJOR GLOBAL ECONOMIC FEARS".

There's going to be a shit storm tomorrow.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't that prime time to buy?

fathergoose · Post by **fathergoose** » Thu Aug 04, 2011 4:38 pm

Market is down 10%+ over the last two weeks.

Bummer.

Morgan12Oak · Post by **Morgan12Oak** » Thu Aug 04, 2011 4:39 pm

theantiscalia wrote:If a reduction in government spending is supposed to be a boom for the private sector...

WHY THE HELL IS THE PRIVATE SECTOR BEING SO DICKISH THIS WEEK?

A reduction of an increase is still an increase.

thebookcollector · Post by **thebookcollector** » Thu Aug 04, 2011 4:41 pm

Morgan12Oak wrote:
theantiscalia wrote:If a reduction in government spending is supposed to be a boom for the private sector...

WHY THE HELL IS THE PRIVATE SECTOR BEING SO DICKISH THIS WEEK?
A reduction of an increase is still an increase.

But the increase was already factored into the market, and the reduction of the increase isn't.

Your explanation sucked. Try again.

Naked Dude · Post by **Naked Dude** » Thu Aug 04, 2011 4:42 pm

Anonymous User wrote:Welcome to another ~~legal~~ hiring crash.

timbs4339 · Post by **timbs4339** » Thu Aug 04, 2011 4:42 pm

theantiscalia wrote:If a reduction in government spending is supposed to be a boom for the private sector...

WHY THE HELL IS THE PRIVATE SECTOR BEING SO DICKISH THIS WEEK?

Right now, federal government spending is hardwired into the economy at almost every level and cuts to that spending are going to be a problem in the short-term. What we need is a job-creating stimulus.

NYC Law · Post by **NYC Law** » Thu Aug 04, 2011 4:43 pm

maxm2764 wrote:
NYC Law wrote:
Yeah, the perfect time to buy is when all the major news websites have in large red font: "BREAKING NEWS, STOCKS PLUMMETING AMONG MAJOR GLOBAL ECONOMIC FEARS".

There's going to be a shit storm tomorrow.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't that prime time to buy?

Not RIGHT now, because things are probably going to get worse before they get better. Maybe in like a week. I just don't think this has bottomed out yet.

Mickey Quicknumbers · Post by **Mickey Quicknumbers** » Thu Aug 04, 2011 4:43 pm

Ugh, should have written on to bankruptcy journal.

Morgan12Oak · Post by **Morgan12Oak** » Thu Aug 04, 2011 4:44 pm

A lot of people wanted a much more drastic cut in spending than what we got. Virtually everyone wanted a much more definitive move also instead of "lets do this now and create a committee to do that in the future". It's like a 5-4 opinion versus a 9-0.

Certainty > Uncertainty for financial markets even if the uncertain scenario has the slight potential to be better. I also see no reason for you to try to be an internet tough guy

maxm2764 · Post by **maxm2764** » Thu Aug 04, 2011 4:46 pm

NYC Law wrote:
maxm2764 wrote:
NYC Law wrote:
Yeah, the perfect time to buy is when all the major news websites have in large red font: "BREAKING NEWS, STOCKS PLUMMETING AMONG MAJOR GLOBAL ECONOMIC FEARS".

There's going to be a shit storm tomorrow.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't that prime time to buy?
Not RIGHT now, because things are probably going to get worse before they get better. Maybe in like a week. I just don't think this has bottomed out yet.

Gotcha. That makes sense.

ToTransferOrNot · Post by **ToTransferOrNot** » Thu Aug 04, 2011 4:52 pm

I want to pour money into GE. A whole boatload of money, in fact.

expungemalice · Post by **expungemalice** » Thu Aug 04, 2011 4:54 pm

you do have your loan money you could invest. may be a better return on investment anyways.

ToTransferOrNot · Post by **ToTransferOrNot** » Thu Aug 04, 2011 4:58 pm

expungemalice wrote:you do have your loan money you could invest. may be a better return on investment anyways.

Nah, all I have is the leftover from my bar stipend, and that has to last me until the end of the month until I start seeing paychecks. No more loans for me, though the interest keeps kicking me in the teeth to the tune of $50 a day;)

areyouinsane · Post by **areyouinsane** » Thu Aug 04, 2011 5:06 pm

Bottom line is that this country's best days are behind it. Rather than law school, it'd be a swell idea to learn practical skills like carpentry, raising food, marksmanship, basic auto repair/mechanical skills, etc.

The disputes of the future will be settled with small arms and fists, not bales of cut n' pasted shitpaper "complaints."

Anonymous User · Post by **Anonymous User** » Thu Aug 04, 2011 5:16 pm

With all these 100% offer rates being reported, what are the odds of offers being rescinded? Start dates moved back at the very least?

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