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The title of the post is pretty self-explanatory. Numerically in the top 5 at a law school in the #84-100 cluster, non-EIC leadership position on Law Review, Summer Associate in Regional Big Law in the flyover circuit that I would like to clerk in. Any legit chance at a federal DC or COA?

The best predictor is to look at the best clerkships your school's students have gotten recently. Unless you have killer recs and something they don't have, ITE you aren't going to do better than them. That said, DC should be in reach if you have good recs. CoA will probably be much harder, a great published note will help, but you probably need some professor pull to get there...Good Luck!

Probably no shot at federal COA unless you have an in.

You have a non-negligible chance of getting DC interview(s) based on grades alone.

I would say you have a pretty good shot at a Fed Art III clerkship if you're willing to move, and you might even be competitive for prized districts like SDNY (depending on whether competition is as tough as it was in the last two years). Probably not going to get a COA clerkship straight out but you might be able to get one after a dist ct clerskship. Good luck!

bump, OP's situation is similar to mine and I am curious about potential odds of getting clerkship

I sort of doubt SDNY is realistic. The average SDNY District judge gets apps from 64 NYU students (with a median GPA among those accepted putting them at or near 10%).