RECESSION PANIC MEGAPOST: Bad economy threads go here! Forum

[CE2JD]

I have no idea why anyone who doesn't have an absolute obsession and love for the law and being a lawyer would go to a shitty law school. I'm sick and tired of hearing the typical "well LOL there's nothing else I can do with my degree." BULLSHIT. There are so many career options for people who don't even have college degrees that anyone WITH a college degree who says they HAVE to go to law school in order to get a job should be regarded as an idiot. Anyone with a halfway decent work ethic can make it in a whole slew of careers. Just ask all the WWII vets that are still alive who came back from war with no education, got jobs and built this country for all you entitled, lazy assholes. I am talking about guys who got jobs as plumbers, electricians, construction workers, clerks, salesman, etc. Use your fucking minds people, you can get a job selling any number of things and still make out better than the ignorant lemmings that get sucked into TTT law schools.


/rant

[im_blue]

I'm not sure if this was already posted elsewhere, but Cornell has posted their employment data for Class of '09. AFAIK this is the only hiring data that has been released for this year's T14 graduates.

Out of 195 graduates:
181 known employed (93%)
165 working in "very large firm (>100)" or clerkship (85%)

--LinkRemoved--

This year-by-year comparison indicates that the number of unemployed graduates has risen from a typical number of 3 to 14 this year.
--LinkRemoved--

It seems like the bottom hasn't exactly fallen out of Cornell's placement ITE, has it? Or will the bloodbath happen for the Class of 2010?

[rayiner]

The Cornell stats are very interesting, but also a bit misleading. Look at the "legal research" employment stat. It jumps from 2 last year to 6 this year.

If you just add up private practice + government + PI + clerkships + military, this year has an 89% employment rate, compared to 97% last year. Not terrible, but then again, C/O 2009 did OCI during the boom. C/O 2010 stats will be really telling, because they'll account for all the no-offers this year's summer class will be getting.

[stateofbeasley]

I have no idea why anyone who doesn't have an absolute obsession and love for the law and being a lawyer would go to a shitty law school.

/rant

Greed, pure and simple, drove the law school bubble.

The TTT law schools published misleading job stats with "average" starting salaries near the six-figure range. People figured they could go to law school and easily find a job that paid a decent salary, or maybe hit it big in biglaw and make $135,000 a year like they read in newspapers.

Now the word is out: expensive, private TTT law schools are mostly a scam. Attend them at your own financial peril.

[CE2JD]

This website will be useful when we're all fighting for the same toilet law jobs after biglaw implodes:

http://toiletlaw.com/

[thesealocust]

Edit: n/m

[soullesswonder]

The Cornell stats are very interesting, but also a bit misleading. Look at the "legal research" employment stat. It jumps from 2 last year to 6 this year.

If you just add up private practice + government + PI + clerkships + military, this year has an 89% employment rate, compared to 97% last year. Not terrible, but then again, C/O 2009 did OCI during the boom. C/O 2010 stats will be really telling, because they'll account for all the no-offers this year's summer class will be getting.

Well, everything I've read hovers around a magic '10%' number. Law work down about 10%, unemployment around 10%, etc. Seeing about 10% (little less) of Cornell 'fall through the cracks' in this god-forsaken economy makes sense. It makes the prospect of attending a top law school riskier, but hardly makes it objectively risky.

Given Cornell's dependence on the NYC market and it's lower T14 status, I'm hoping/expecting that it will take the biggest hit within the T14.

[RVP11]

The Cornell stats are very interesting, but also a bit misleading. Look at the "legal research" employment stat. It jumps from 2 last year to 6 this year.

If you just add up private practice + government + PI + clerkships + military, this year has an 89% employment rate, compared to 97% last year. Not terrible, but then again, C/O 2009 did OCI during the boom. C/O 2010 stats will be really telling, because they'll account for all the no-offers this year's summer class will be getting.

Well, everything I've read hovers around a magic '10%' number. Law work down about 10%, unemployment around 10%, etc. Seeing about 10% (little less) of Cornell 'fall through the cracks' in this god-forsaken economy makes sense. It makes the prospect of attending a top law school riskier, but hardly makes it objectively risky.

I think the key for everyone going T14 is simple: have a MFing non-BigLaw backup plan that can allow you to pay off your loans.

[soullesswonder]

The Cornell stats are very interesting, but also a bit misleading. Look at the "legal research" employment stat. It jumps from 2 last year to 6 this year.

If you just add up private practice + government + PI + clerkships + military, this year has an 89% employment rate, compared to 97% last year. Not terrible, but then again, C/O 2009 did OCI during the boom. C/O 2010 stats will be really telling, because they'll account for all the no-offers this year's summer class will be getting.

Well, everything I've read hovers around a magic '10%' number. Law work down about 10%, unemployment around 10%, etc. Seeing about 10% (little less) of Cornell 'fall through the cracks' in this god-forsaken economy makes sense. It makes the prospect of attending a top law school riskier, but hardly makes it objectively risky.

I think the key for everyone going T14 is simple: have a MFing non-BigLaw backup plan that can allow you to pay off your loans.

and for those not in the T14....steal that "MFing non-Biglaw" as your first option.

[legends159]

the key for everyone is to cast a wide net and to do your research of which firms are shaky at the moment and avoid them if you have the grades for other options.

Now is not the time to pigeonhole yourself into one market. The key is to be flexible in this economy instead of dead weight.

[RVP11]

and for those not in the T14....hope that Starbuck's is still in business

[zero1]

and for those not in the T14....hope that Starbuck's is still in business

UT? Texas is probably (edit: typo) the best place to be right now.

[rayiner]

The Cornell stats are very interesting, but also a bit misleading. Look at the "legal research" employment stat. It jumps from 2 last year to 6 this year.

If you just add up private practice + government + PI + clerkships + military, this year has an 89% employment rate, compared to 97% last year. Not terrible, but then again, C/O 2009 did OCI during the boom. C/O 2010 stats will be really telling, because they'll account for all the no-offers this year's summer class will be getting.

Well, everything I've read hovers around a magic '10%' number. Law work down about 10%, unemployment around 10%, etc. Seeing about 10% (little less) of Cornell 'fall through the cracks' in this god-forsaken economy makes sense. It makes the prospect of attending a top law school riskier, but hardly makes it objectively risky.

The problem here is that the hiring curve is basically the derivative of the "associate count" curve, which is itself proportional to the demand curve. Demand going down 10% doesn't sound catastrophic, but what it means is that firms can basically hire not a single person from class of 201x and still maintain their associate counts where they want them to be.

Hiring overall will be down a heck of a lot more than 10%, even within the T14.

[rayiner]

The Cornell stats are very interesting, but also a bit misleading. Look at the "legal research" employment stat. It jumps from 2 last year to 6 this year.

If you just add up private practice + government + PI + clerkships + military, this year has an 89% employment rate, compared to 97% last year. Not terrible, but then again, C/O 2009 did OCI during the boom. C/O 2010 stats will be really telling, because they'll account for all the no-offers this year's summer class will be getting.

Well, everything I've read hovers around a magic '10%' number. Law work down about 10%, unemployment around 10%, etc. Seeing about 10% (little less) of Cornell 'fall through the cracks' in this god-forsaken economy makes sense. It makes the prospect of attending a top law school riskier, but hardly makes it objectively risky.

I think the key for everyone going T14 is simple: have a MFing non-BigLaw backup plan that can allow you to pay off your loans.

I think everyone going T14 should just pretend like they're going to a T30 (in a good economy). Try hard to stay in that top 1/3 and for god's sake don't dip below median.

[legends159]

I think everyone going T14 should just pretend like they're going to a T30 (in a good economy). Try hard to stay in that top 1/3 and for god's sake don't dip below median.

half the class has to

[RVP11]

I think everyone going T14 should just pretend like they're going to a T30 (in a good economy). Try hard to stay in that top 1/3 and for god's sake don't dip below median.

So "do your best", then? That's not exactly novel.

Call me crazy but, given the market I'm aiming for, I won't be killing myself if I end up below median. None of the firms in my hometown are V50 and many are not even NLJ250. Also, I don't have their hiring matrices and I don't know all of their criteria. It's quite possible below median with regional ties beats above median without.

I'm just going to do as well as I can do.

[steve_nash]

.

[rayiner]

I think everyone going T14 should just pretend like they're going to a T30 (in a good economy). Try hard to stay in that top 1/3 and for god's sake don't dip below median.

So "do your best", then? That's not exactly novel.

Call me crazy but, given the market I'm aiming for, I won't be killing myself if I end up below median. None of the firms in my hometown are V50 and many are not even NLJ250. Also, I don't have their hiring matrices and I don't know all of their criteria. It's quite possible below median with regional ties beats above median without.

I'm just going to do as well as I can do.

I mean, there are levels of "do your best". I doubt people at T14s before the bust were pulling an Arrow to get the highest grades possible.

[CE2JD]

I think everyone going T14 should just pretend like they're going to a T30 (in a good economy). Try hard to stay in that top 1/3 and for god's sake don't dip below median.

So "do your best", then? That's not exactly novel.

Call me crazy but, given the market I'm aiming for, I won't be killing myself if I end up below median. None of the firms in my hometown are V50 and many are not even NLJ250. Also, I don't have their hiring matrices and I don't know all of their criteria. It's quite possible below median with regional ties beats above median without.

I'm just going to do as well as I can do.

I mean, there are levels of "do your best". I doubt people at T14s before the bust were pulling an Arrow to get the highest grades possible.

Uhhhh... you know what type of people go to T14s, right?



gunners

[rayiner]

I don't know how many T14 people were gunning hardcore back when the cut-off for biglaw was "do you have a pulse". However, now that "below-median at UVA = death", I think the softball games might get a bit tense...

[RVP11]

I don't know how many T14 people were gunning hardcore back when the cut-off for biglaw was "do you have a pulse". However, now that "below-median at UVA = death", I think the softball games might get a bit tense...

Most people at most schools (even T14s) don't come on TLS with the kind of frequency that we do - as busy as the UVA Class of 2012 thread is, there are maybe a dozen of us at most who are true TLS addicts. I doubt things will change much when we get to school. People know the economy is bad, but I don't think it will transform everyone into a supra-gunner.

And while Arrow's suggestions are nice, some of them are not very applicable to success at top schools (LEEWS, substantive law prep).

[rayiner]

LOLerious post on ATL today:

Don't buy into the "good news" that the rate of lay-offs is slowing. The fact is that lay-offs are continuing. The rate of lay-offs must inevitably slow as we approach an asymptote. But the asymptote is reached (and lay-offs stop) when all lawyers are billing at least 1900 hrs/year. We are nowhere near that point as there are still a significant number of underutilized attorneys in the system. Anyone who thinks that firms are going to start hiring again (except to fill the rare niche spot) is delusional. What we are going through is a major reset. I predict that the number of new hires over the next 10 years will stabilize to equal 1/2 of actual lawyer retirements/deaths. This is equal to about 20 percent of the number of new grads being churned out at ABA approved law schools. If you are in law school (and either not at a T20 and/or not in the top 10%), I suggest you start rethinking your career goals. At age 22-26, you are still young enough to do something in engineering/science.

Didn't anybody tell him that all the scientists/engineers were jumping ship to go to law school to avoid the outsourcing of their jobs?

[zero1]

I don't know how many T14 people were gunning hardcore back when the cut-off for biglaw was "do you have a pulse". However, now that "below-median at UVA = death", I think the softball games might get a bit tense...

Wow...what a frightening prospect.

[CE2JD]

LOLerious post on ATL today:

Don't buy into the "good news" that the rate of lay-offs is slowing. The fact is that lay-offs are continuing. The rate of lay-offs must inevitably slow as we approach an asymptote. But the asymptote is reached (and lay-offs stop) when all lawyers are billing at least 1900 hrs/year. We are nowhere near that point as there are still a significant number of underutilized attorneys in the system. Anyone who thinks that firms are going to start hiring again (except to fill the rare niche spot) is delusional. What we are going through is a major reset. I predict that the number of new hires over the next 10 years will stabilize to equal 1/2 of actual lawyer retirements/deaths. This is equal to about 20 percent of the number of new grads being churned out at ABA approved law schools. If you are in law school (and either not at a T20 and/or not in the top 10%), I suggest you start rethinking your career goals. At age 22-26, you are still young enough to do something in engineering/science.

Didn't anybody tell him that all the scientists/engineers were jumping ship to go to law school to avoid the outsourcing of their jobs?

LOL. Most lawyers would piss and moan even worse if they had to actually come up with original ideas and apply them in an engineering job. This is why they were all humanities majors in the first place, right?

[rayiner]

I don't know how many T14 people were gunning hardcore back when the cut-off for biglaw was "do you have a pulse". However, now that "below-median at UVA = death", I think the softball games might get a bit tense...

Wow...what a frightening prospect.

It's grim. When you access your below-median grades, the LawWeb software causes a fatal electric shock to be delivered through your keyboard, saving you the pain and humiliation of going through OCI.