RECESSION PANIC MEGAPOST: Bad economy threads go here! Forum

[toaster2]

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[Dick Whitman]

The grass may look greener over there, but China has a good number of economic issues itself.

How many people are queuing up to immigrate from the US to China? (Presumably similar to the numbers of liberals/conservatives who moved to Canada/Paraguay after W/Obama was elected.)

[toaster2]

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[RVP11]

The grass may look greener over there, but China has a good number of economic issues itself.

How many people are queuing up to immigrate from the US to China? (Presumably similar to the numbers of liberals/conservatives who moved to Canada/Paraguay after W/Obama was elected.)

China is a total disaster. Their commercial real estate and stock markets have been hit very hard over the past year. Upwards of 25 million have lost jobs. They face serious constraints on certain raw materials necessary for increasing the standard of living of the average Chinese. As they develop their communications infrastructure and their citizens globalize, the communist government will find itself increasingly unable to continue the status quo. Because of the one child policy, they are facing a demographic disaster, with and entire generation overpopulated with men. I can't imagine that tens of millions of poor farmers/factory workers who can't even entertain the notion of a family bodes well for stability.

Sounds like there will be a huge demand for (female) sex robots. Put a dent in the human prostitution industry.

[airlineraddict]

One could make the argument that the United States is clearly no longer the financial god of the world, that China will replace us.

Please provide evidence showing that we have lost ground in the "financial department" compared to our peers.

Please learn to read. I never made the claim. I said "one could argue." I'm considering multiple avenues of arguments here.

Since Obama seems anti-bubble, he will pop any super-accelerated recovery based on some new bubble.

I didn't realize the president had ready access to "bubble popping measures."

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0409/21393.html

[toaster2]

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[stab master arson]

Since Obama seems anti-bubble, he will pop any super-accelerated recovery based on some new bubble.

I didn't realize the president had ready access to "bubble popping measures."

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0409/21393.html

Hooray for central planning!

[hiro86]

The grass may look greener over there, but China has a good number of economic issues itself.

How many people are queuing up to immigrate from the US to China? (Presumably similar to the numbers of liberals/conservatives who moved to Canada/Paraguay after W/Obama was elected.)

China is a total disaster. Their commercial real estate and stock markets have been hit very hard over the past year. Upwards of 25 million have lost jobs. They face serious constraints on certain raw materials necessary for increasing the standard of living of the average Chinese. As they develop their communications infrastructure and their citizens globalize, the communist government will find itself increasingly unable to continue the status quo. Because of the one child policy, they are facing a demographic disaster, with and entire generation overpopulated with men. I can't imagine that tens of millions of poor farmers/factory workers who can't even entertain the notion of a family bodes well for stability.

Sounds like there will be a huge demand for (female) sex robots. Put a dent in the human prostitution industry.

No need, they will probably just invade some country and steal all of their women.

[airlineraddict]

As the dollar is weakens, oil prices are going to hike. People and other oil dependent parties are in for a shocker. I sure hope airlines, at the very least, hedged their fuel contracts to the two-month-ago levels.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/139921- ... rice-spike
http://seekingalpha.com/article/139840- ... ice-stupid
http://seekingalpha.com/article/139718- ... e-mckinsey

[airlineraddict]

On the bright side, Chrysler is already looking to emerge from bankruptcy. I had to do a double-take when I saw this. I had become accustomed to a United Airlines-esque restructuring, spanning something like a decade(?).

Edit: And now, as my pea-sized brain connects the above two posts. Chrysler might be forced to re-enter bankruptcy as oil prices worsen.

[Rsrcht]

[quote=toaster2]Do do you believe that avenue of argument? Because if you don't, I don't understand why you mentioned it and continued to discuss its implications.[/quote]

Do future lawyers have to necessarily believe the arguments they make anonymously online, or IRL for that matter? Perhaps it is for the sake of intellectual curiosity, or of usefulness. Politicians make arguments they don't believe in all of the time for the sake of the argument's usefulness. But to be fair, an argument requires some supporting evidence to be made, otherwise it is just a statement, not necessarily of fact. So in determining whether one could or could not make such an argument, evidence would still have to be provided.

[airlineraddict]

Pretty sure toaster is a cylon.

[RVP11]

zOMG midlaw exists: --LinkRemoved--

(Concept taken from another poster, but yeah...)
Discussion here: http://www.top-law-schools.com/forums/v ... 10&t=73551

I give a frownie face to this. Hopefully I won't have to deal with other T14 kids flooding my desired market because they read ATL and can make up phony relatives to establish "regional ties". I feel like the spited kid who liked the unpopular band before they got cool.

[Cleareyes]

zOMG midlaw exists: --LinkRemoved--

(Concept taken from another poster, but yeah...)
Discussion here: http://www.top-law-schools.com/forums/v ... 10&t=73551

--ImageRemoved--

[Kohinoor]

zOMG midlaw exists: --LinkRemoved--

(Concept taken from another poster, but yeah...)
Discussion here: http://www.top-law-schools.com/forums/v ... 10&t=73551

I give a frownie face to this. Hopefully I won't have to deal with other T14 kids flooding my desired market because they read ATL and can make up phony relatives to establish "regional ties". I feel like the spited kid who liked the unpopular band before they got cool.

Most won't give up their elitist coastal living.

Better dead in NY than alive in Seattle.

[Antipodean]

LOL. The only way I'd spend more than a week in NYC is if I were dead.

I don't think it takes an entire week for a body to float down the Hudson.

[Rsrcht]

LOL. The only way I'd spend more than a week in NYC is if I were dead.

I don't think it takes an entire week for a body to float down the Hudson.

It might with cement shoes.

[imchuckbass58]

Well, to add some specualtive fuel to the fire:

--LinkRemoved--

Summary: Mayer Brown pulled out of the Chicago IP fair (biggest IP job fair in the country). CLS interview schedules down 22% (offers likely down more, since they'll be more selective in those schedules as well). Someone in the comments is claiming OCI at Michigan down huge, but who knows how reliable that is.

[RVP11]

Well, to add some specualtive fuel to the fire:

--LinkRemoved--

Summary: Mayer Brown pulled out of the Chicago IP fair (biggest IP job fair in the country). CLS interview schedules down 22% (offers likely down more, since they'll be more selective in those schedules as well). Someone in the comments is claiming OCI at Michigan down huge, but who knows how reliable that is.

Considering we don't know which firms constitute that 22% number, it's hard to say what that exactly translates to.

For example, 4 firms/offices in my home town decided to stop doing OCI at UVA this year, out of a total 7 that used to. These 7 firms together have only hired 3 UVA grads in the past 3 years. It's likely they're no longer traveling to OCI at UVA because of lack of interest among students and the need to cut the costs of travel. But 4 fewer firms interviewing at UVA will have no effect on total hiring % at the school.

[imchuckbass58]

Well, to add some specualtive fuel to the fire:

--LinkRemoved--

Summary: Mayer Brown pulled out of the Chicago IP fair (biggest IP job fair in the country). CLS interview schedules down 22% (offers likely down more, since they'll be more selective in those schedules as well). Someone in the comments is claiming OCI at Michigan down huge, but who knows how reliable that is.

Considering we don't know which firms constitute that 22% number, it's hard to say what that exactly translates to.

For example, 4 firms/offices in my home town decided to stop doing OCI at UVA this year, out of a total 7 that used to. These 7 firms together have only hired 3 UVA grads in the past 3 years. It's likely they're no longer traveling to OCI at UVA because of lack of interest among students and the need to cut the costs of travel. But 4 fewer firms interviewing at UVA will have no effect on total hiring % at the school.

I see your point and agree it's generally valid, however I'd point out that the 22% reduction is not in the # of firms interviewing, but rather the number of schedules (i.e. interview slots)

[rayiner]

Well, to add some specualtive fuel to the fire:

--LinkRemoved--

Summary: Mayer Brown pulled out of the Chicago IP fair (biggest IP job fair in the country). CLS interview schedules down 22% (offers likely down more, since they'll be more selective in those schedules as well). Someone in the comments is claiming OCI at Michigan down huge, but who knows how reliable that is.

F--k. Et tu IP?

[rayiner]

I think there is one bit of misinformation floating about: "law firms hire for their needs 3 years out." The analysis I did of the last recession shows that this wasn't the case then, and it probably won't be the case now. The economy tanked in 2001 and 2002, and the total hiring was lowest for C/O 2003 and and C/O 2004. It was C/O 2005 that felt the effects of the recovery that happened in 2003. In other words, C/O 2012 is getting reamed unless the economy picks back up around OCI time next year.

[RVP11]

I think there is one bit of misinformation floating about: "law firms hire for their needs 3 years out." The analysis I did of the last recession shows that this wasn't the case then, and it probably won't be the case now. The economy tanked in 2001 and 2002, and the total hiring was lowest for C/O 2003 and and C/O 2004. It was C/O 2005 that felt the effects of the recovery that happened in 2003. In other words, C/O 2012 is getting reamed unless the economy picks back up around OCI time next year.

In an ideal world (where you could accurately predict your needs in 3 years) I think employers would hire that way, but people don't understand that a firm has to be able to afford to pay those SAs in the meantime.

[rayiner]

EVERYBODY is frightened; it's what happens in a crap economy like this. Just because you're 2Ls doesn't mean you deserve serious consideration. The mid-level associates that are being laid off are the meat and potatoes of the legal industry and in doing so the partners are screwing themselves in the long run. Who cares about law students? They're fungible and know nothing about the actual practice of law.

I like this reply in that ATL thread.

[lawfool]

For a supposedly risk averse profession, many law firms seem to be horribly mismanaged for the inevitable business cycle.

Firms have small reserves and pay out nearly all profits to partners AFAIK. That so few firms have gone under is a testament that things haven't gotten depression level bad.

Things are all relative. Relative to 2007, 2012 is likely going to get reamed. Compared to 2004, things could be considered the same.

EDIT: Biggest change could be V10 pulling away from everyone else. Nearly every other professional service industry has a top-10 group of firms that account for 30-80% of business. In law, the V10 accounts for 4%.