Odds of getting one of 3 T14 waitlists Forum

[moonshooting]

Currently waitlisted at Penn, UVA, and Georgetown. Trying to estimate the probability of getting into one, and any insight from the forum would be great. My current guesstimate is an independent probability of 5% for acceptance at each which translates into a 14.26% chance of getting at least one and a 0.01% chance of all three. Thoughts or disagreement appreciated!

[Wubbles]

Your odds depend on your stats

[cavalier1138]

Your odds depend on your stats

Yeah. Kind of hard to comment on your "analysis" if we don't know what it's based on.

[moonshooting]

Your odds depend on your stats

I'm operating under a loose assumption that all waitlist candidates are held at roughly equal value to each respective school. This is obviously not literally true... but from a forecasters perspective (us) without a clear theory of how waitlist candidates are chosen this seems like a logical assumption. Do we have strong reasons to think that schools go strictly by any single variable (LSAT, GPA, personal statement, or likelihood of attendance) or by a well-defined formula that combines multiple statistics? If, not it is impossible to judge individual case probability based on respective stats. I am asking for a generic probability of a T14 waitlist acceptance. My assertion is that this probability is 5%.

[The Lsat Airbender]

Your odds depend on your stats

I'm operating under a loose assumption that all waitlist candidates are held at roughly equal value to each respective school. This is obviously not literally true...

It's not even close to true. Schools select from their waitlist based on what needs arise in May-August as people deposit or withdraw. That could be above-median LSAT scores one year, URMs the next, etc.

[moonshooting]

Your odds depend on your stats

I'm operating under a loose assumption that all waitlist candidates are held at roughly equal value to each respective school. This is obviously not literally true...

It's not even close to true. Schools select from their waitlist based on what needs arise in May-August as people deposit or withdraw. That could be above-median LSAT scores one year, URMs the next, etc.

Of course, it's not. You're missing the point tho. If we can't know those school's needs before they arise then we must limit our forecast to broad assumptions. This is a basic principle of forecasting. For example, our best guess for the weather in NYC for May is not some analysis of current weather or known variables that may come into play but rather a rough sketch given by historical averages. Despite the fact that historical averages are extremely prone to error they are the best means of forecasting long-range weather. I argue that the same applies to waitlist acceptances. Any attempt to differentiate the odds requires a more sophisticated model of how waitlist acceptances work... which as you have just stated are dependent on future events and info.

[cavalier1138]

Sounds like you've got a handle on the statistics. Best of luck.

[moonshooting]

Sounds like you've got a handle on the statistics. Best of luck.

I dunno is it a crime to ask for a generic probability/guess?

[cavalier1138]

Sounds like you've got a handle on the statistics. Best of luck.

I dunno is it a crime to ask for a generic probability/guess?

1. Law students and lawyers are notoriously bad at math.

2. No real point in asking for a guess, unless you have specific information that could help inform the guessing.

[moonshooting]

Sounds like you've got a handle on the statistics. Best of luck.

I dunno is it a crime to ask for a generic probability/guess?

1. Law students and lawyers are notoriously bad at math.

2. No real point in asking for a guess, unless you have specific information that could help inform the guessing.

Asking what the probability of an event occurring isn't rocket science. Also, this site is literally a collection of guesses about how things work. If guessing is pointless, then you might as well say all of us being on this forum is pointless.

[UVA2B]

This is so dumb.

If your LSAT or GPA are above the school’s median targets, which are easily estimated pretty accurately, you’re at higher odds of getting off the waitlist. If you’re above neither, you’re probably a soft rejection they never intend to move to the accepted pool.

Stop reading tea leaves and either do what it takes to get accepted to the schools you think will help you reach your goals (which is likely sitting out and retaking the LSAT), or adjust your goals and target schools that will serve those goals.

Trying to statistically determine your chances of getting off a WL is a pointless exercise, and determining how statistically likely it is you get off all three is even worse.

Stop wasting your time.

[nixy]

Sounds like you've got a handle on the statistics. Best of luck.

I dunno is it a crime to ask for a generic probability/guess?

No, but it’s not going to be worth anything and most people don’t want to waste time/get anyone’s hopes up unrealistically.

[moonshooting]

This is so dumb.

If your LSAT or GPA are above the school’s median targets, which are easily estimated pretty accurately, you’re at higher odds of getting off the waitlist. If you’re above neither, you’re probably a soft rejection they never intend to move to the accepted pool.

Stop reading tea leaves and either do what it takes to get accepted to the schools you think will help you reach your goals (which is likely sitting out and retaking the LSAT), or adjust your goals and target schools that will serve those goals.

Trying to statistically determine your chances of getting off a WL is a pointless exercise, and determining how statistically likely it is you get off all three is even worse.

Stop wasting your time.

Useful info on soft rejections and above-below medians, thanks! Currently studying for a retake but just fun hypothesizing as I wait. Fully recognize the trivialness but thought some others might enjoy some the conjecture on odds. Realizing not so much...

[UVA2B]

Sounds like you've got a handle on the statistics. Best of luck.

I dunno is it a crime to ask for a generic probability/guess?

1. Law students and lawyers are notoriously bad at math.

2. No real point in asking for a guess, unless you have specific information that could help inform the guessing.

Asking what the probability of an event occurring isn't rocket science. Also, this site is literally a collection of guesses about how things work. If guessing is pointless, then you might as well say all of us being on this forum is pointless.

It’s not rocket science, but if you don’t control the inputs, you can’t in any meaningful way expect an accurate forecast model.

This site is collective wisdom based on knowledge of a wide array of things, to include admission chances. The predictions are based on having relevant information and predicting based on that relevant information. You can’t divorce the statistics from the reality that the reason a 172/2.9 candidate gets off the WL is probably because a 173/3.7 turned down an offer for admission for an offer at another school.

Every school has target LSAT and GPA medians, and they also have target class sizes. Those numbers and statistical models drive the majority of admission decisions, scholarship decisions, and by natural extension, most WL movement.

[moonshooting]

Sounds like you've got a handle on the statistics. Best of luck.

I dunno is it a crime to ask for a generic probability/guess?

1. Law students and lawyers are notoriously bad at math.

2. No real point in asking for a guess, unless you have specific information that could help inform the guessing.

Asking what the probability of an event occurring isn't rocket science. Also, this site is literally a collection of guesses about how things work. If guessing is pointless, then you might as well say all of us being on this forum is pointless.

It’s not rocket science, but if you don’t control the inputs, you can’t in any meaningful way expect an accurate forecast model.

This site is collective wisdom based on knowledge of a wide array of things, to include admission chances. The predictions are based on having relevant information and predicting based on that relevant information. You can’t divorce the statistics from the reality that the reason a 172/2.9 candidate gets off the WL is probably because a 173/3.7 turned down an offer for admission for an offer at another school.

Every school has target LSAT and GPA medians, and they also have target class sizes. Those numbers and statistical models drive the majority of admission decisions, scholarship decisions, and by natural extension, most WL movement.

Again, useful info! The only disagreement is over whether or not an "accurate forecast model" can really even exist. Even if it can it would almost certainly lack precision. All of which leads me back to my original hypothesis that a generic number is more useful than individualized probabilities. I suppose an argument could be made that splitters and reverse splitters have better odds, but hard to say for sure. Interesting to consider tho

Didn't mean insult by saying this forum by calling it a collection of guesses. To be clear this site is a collection of highly informed guesses that are in general very accurate. The main point was that guessing in its infancy is usually very broad, and in this case, I argue it needs to be.

[UVA2B]

It can’t be an accurate forecast model if you can’t reasonably predict the changes first, which requires looking at the likelihood of admitted students to decline their offer, and separately, what gap they are creating in the overall median calculations. Take Penn, which is probably shooting for a 169-170 LSAT and 3.9ish GPA median. Their class size is approximately 240. They’ll probably accept approximately 750 applicants to obtain that yield. You can reasonably expect some/most of the remaining 500 non-attendees are at/above one or both medians, but you can’t really know whether each individual non-attendee affects that final yield.

If you want to explore the stats for admissions (which WL movement will basically track), just play with mylsn.

[The Lsat Airbender]

You straight-up can't forecast this kind of thing because, again, you don't even know many of the relevant inputs; insofar as they even record such information schools keep data like how big their waitlist is, or how many people they admitted from WL in previous years, close to the chest.

You're substantially worse off than pre-WL admissions, or even meteorology, where one has the benefit of historical data. What you asked for in the OP is like trying to arrive at a %age chance of rain tomorrow - except you don't even know where in the world we're trying to make that prediction or what time of year it is. The only reasonable inference you can make at this stage is that, as UVA points out, anyone below both medians is probably a long shot.

[Npret]

What are your stats? Did you do anything to get off the waitlist?

From your posts I have a feeling you don’t understand the highly predictable nature of numbers focused law school admissions.

LSAC is releasing data in real time this year so maybe that can help you with your time waster project here.

[moonshooting]

You straight-up can't forecast this kind of thing because, again, you don't even know many of the relevant inputs; insofar as they even record such information schools keep data like how big their waitlist is, or how many people they admitted from WL in previous years, close to the chest.

You're substantially worse off than pre-WL admissions, or even meteorology, where one has the benefit of historical data. What you asked for in the OP is like trying to arrive at a %age chance of rain tomorrow - except you don't even know where in the world we're trying to make that prediction or what time of year it is. The only reasonable inference you can make at this stage is that, as UVA points out, anyone below both medians is probably a long shot.

Jesus dude... take a chill pill. I was trying to have a little fun making a forecast. If you don't want to make one, then don't. No need to come on here and make some bs case about how it is fundamentally wrong to make forecasts/predictions on things that have a high degree of uncertainty.

[nixy]

But what purpose does it serve to try to forecast things that can’t be forecast?

[moonshooting]

What are your stats? Did you do anything to get off the waitlist?

From your posts I have a feeling you don’t understand the highly predictable nature of numbers focused law school admissions.

LSAC is releasing data in real time this year so maybe that can help you with your time waster project here.

Interesting response. Direct questions ignoring my argument followed by multiple personal insults. Do you think this is a productive way to communicate with others? Clearly, you aren't interested in having an honest discussion, so let's just stop.

[moonshooting]

But what purpose does it serve to try to forecast things that can’t be forecast?

It can very much be forecast. For some reason, everyone on TLS can't handle uncertainty in estimates. It's okay to say 20% chance with a 90% confidence margin of error of +/- 20%.

[nixy]

But what purpose does it serve to try to forecast things that can’t be forecast?

It can very much be forecast. For some reason, everyone on TLS can't handle uncertainty in estimates. It's okay to say 20% chance with a 90% confidence margin of error of +/- 20%.

Except you’re just making that up. Uncertainty is different from complete lack of reliable inputs. But if you want to put it differently: what is the purpose of forecasting things based on unreliable data?

Like if you said you were literally gambling on this I suppose I get that but otherwise it seems a pointless endeavor.

[moonshooting]

But what purpose does it serve to try to forecast things that can’t be forecast?

It can very much be forecast. For some reason, everyone on TLS can't handle uncertainty in estimates. It's okay to say 20% chance with a 90% confidence margin of error of +/- 20%.

Except you’re just making that up. Uncertainty is different from complete lack of reliable inputs. But if you want to put it differently: what is the purpose of forecasting things based on unreliable data?

Like if you said you were literally gambling on this I suppose I get that but otherwise it seems a pointless endeavor.

Look I agree I don't think the inputs are very reliable. I don't think a precise estimate can be made. In essence, everyone on TLS agrees with this. The true answer is literally unknowable... so yeah I'd say I'm taking it about a serious as gambling. I'm not making any life decisions off of this. Merely wanted a fun bit of conjecture with other informed individuals.

[FeeSimpleAbsolute]

I mean, dude, just post your stats and then people will have a better sense for the odds. It's pretty simple, and yet you seem to be avoiding providing your numbers. Bizarre.