Applicants down another 9.1% from last year--Update 12/12 Forum

[Tiago Splitter]

http://spiveyconsulting.com/blog/first- ... ion-cycle/

Apps down big from the 165-180 crowd.

Applicants are down 9.1% and applications are down 10.5% from 2014.

As of December 12th, 2014.

[Rigo]

Interesting how the 160-164 crowd is barely down at all compared to the other categories.
RETAKE KIDS!

[Moneytrees]

That's a pretty huge drop.

[Lions1913]

...

[RCSOB657]

5 Dec
Spivey Consulting @SpiveyConsult

Fifty-two schools show an increase in applications, while 146 show a decline and 3 show no change.

Are those 52 lower, middle, or upper end schools?

[mvp99]

Hopefully, this decline coupled with some federal loan requirement will make 150 schools end operations in the next 10 years

[A. Nony Mouse]

What's to say this data is reliable?

Spivey usually gets it from the source or from some reliable connection to the source - he's certainly generally reliable.

[Lions1913]

[..

[A. Nony Mouse]

What's to say this data is reliable?

Spivey usually gets it from the source or from some reliable connection to the source - he's certainly generally reliable.

I trust that's true. I'd just love to see the data for myself so I can mine it a bit.

You could ask Spivey directly - he has a thread here in the professionals forum.

[Tiago Splitter]

Hopefully, this decline coupled with some federal loan requirement will make 150 schools end operations in the next 10 years

We don't need schools to go away, just fewer students. If anything I'd prefer that all schools stay open so the competition for students remains fierce.

[PeanutsNJam]

Does this mean more T-14's will be willing to dip below 3.0's to get 170+'s? NW is the only T14 that somewhat regularly accepts sub 3.0's right. If the other schools want to maintain their medians, don't they have to start being more open to splitters?

[Okie25]

http://www.lsac.org/lsacresources/data/ ... ear-volume

Updated stats!

[pylon]

Applicants are down 9.1% and applications are down 10.5% from 2014.

As of December 12th, 2014.

[Rigo]

It's interesting that this time last year, only 28% of the the final applicant count had applied.
Applying in January certainly isn't "late" anymore.

[pylon]

It's interesting that this time last year, only 28% of the the final applicant count had applied.
Applying in January certainly isn't "late" anymore.

On TLS, one gets the impression that January is so late that you're better off just waiting a cycle. I had no idea the majority of applications come in after December.

[pylon]

Also interesting to note that on average, each applicant applies to ~6.4 schools (88,926 applications submitted by 13,816 applicants).

[RCSOB657]

I'm almost stressing out because I've only got 5 of 6 admits I'm expecting, but only 3 scholarship packets. One reason I'm glad Dirigo linked that negotiations thread was it showing the glaring need for patience. Crunch time for most post app decisions isn't until March.

I'm likely going to apply to more stretch schools in late January, but like stated in another thread it would be easier for students to send out more apps if the $28 reports weren't $28.

[suppy183]

It's interesting that this time last year, only 28% of the the final applicant count had applied.
Applying in January certainly isn't "late" anymore.

On TLS, one gets the impression that January is so late that you're better off just waiting a cycle. I had no idea the majority of applications come in after December.

If you look at the proportion of 170+ applicants (as a proxy for "T14" applicants) who've applied as of whenever Spivey posted those applicant stats broken down by LSAT range, it's more like 50% of the final total. I can see why a January app would be late for the purposes of most people on this site.

[PeanutsNJam]

The pessimist in me is saying that the aggregate data probably doesn't say much about what's directly relevant to TLS (T1 and up schools, T14). I wouldn't be surprised if T14 apps didn't drop at all. A majority of the data is probably random people not applying to TT/TTT/TTTT anymore. Which is great for them I guess but it doesn't change things for us.

Plus T14 deadlines are usually early Feb, so January is late. TTTT deadline is like May or something, so yeah apply to those whenever with whatever score. I don't think it's helpful to aggregate such extremes.

[t-14orbust]

Anyone predicting t14 medians to drop again? HYS?

[hill1334]

The pessimist in me is saying that the aggregate data probably doesn't say much about what's directly relevant to TLS (T1 and up schools, T14). I wouldn't be surprised if T14 apps didn't drop at all. A majority of the data is probably random people not applying to TT/TTT/TTTT anymore. Which is great for them I guess but it doesn't change things for us.

Plus T14 deadlines are usually early Feb, so January is late. TTTT deadline is like May or something, so yeah apply to those whenever with whatever score. I don't think it's helpful to aggregate such extremes.

While there may be some truth to what you are saying, I still think this is promising news for people applying to the T14. According to the info on Spivey, applications from the 165-180 crowd are actually down the most (approximately 15% across the board)(http://spiveyconsulting.com/blog/first- ... ion-cycle/). Most people in the 165-180 LSAT range won't be applying to TT/TTT/TTTT schools in the first place, so I don't think it is actually accurate to say that "[a] majority of the data is probably random people not applying to TT/TTT/TTTT anymore."

[Hutz_and_Goodman]

For people going to biglaw, the precipitous drop in 165-180 applicants is good news (job security, salary leverage) because associates at these firms come almost exclusively from this group.

[Tiago Splitter]

The pessimist in me is saying that the aggregate data probably doesn't say much about what's directly relevant to TLS (T1 and up schools, T14). I wouldn't be surprised if T14 apps didn't drop at all. A majority of the data is probably random people not applying to TT/TTT/TTTT anymore. Which is great for them I guess but it doesn't change things for us.

The people with high scores just aren't there though. There could be more 3.5/165 types applying to the T14 to make up the gap, but that's still a great thing for people with typical T14 numbers.

[pylon]

Anyone predicting t14 medians to drop again? HYS?

If we're talking about just LSAT medians, then I don't think they drop (maybe a point or two but nothing major). However I do think at some point they'll have to sacrifice their GPA medians if they want the LSAT scores. We've seen it happening in recent years, but my guess is they dip lower and lower as these 170+ LSATs become more rare.

[Tiago Splitter]

Anyone predicting t14 medians to drop again? HYS?

If we're talking about just LSAT medians, then I don't think they drop (maybe a point or two but nothing major). However I do think at some point they'll have to sacrifice their GPA medians if they want the LSAT scores. We've seen it happening in recent years, but my guess is they dip lower and lower as these 170+ LSATs become more rare.

A point is actually pretty major. Harvard has been locked into the 173 forever. Stanford just went from 170 to 172 because they can so it seems nothing important will happen at YS.