T14 and 170+
Posted: Fri Oct 03, 2014 9:05 am
So, according to the medians thread, there were 4,286 students admitted in the T14 for class of 2016.
I'm not sure if it's always this way, but in my administration of 2012, 170 was 97th percentile. That means 3% of test takers scored 170 or higher. There were 112,515 test takers total. That leaves ~3,375 test takers who scored 170 or higher.
Considering how LSAT test administrations are decreasing, that number should also be decreasing.
Of the T14, only T6 have managed to maintain a 170 median.
The below calculations were done with numbers from the medians thread for C/O 2016, which is 1 year removed from the LSAT administration I'm discussing, so it's not perfectly matched, but we're just talking in roundabout numbers here.
We can do a lowball estimate of all the admitted students who scored under 170 by calculating from each school's median that is below 170. (the 25th of both Yale and Harvard were 170 in 2016, so they're excluded from this calculation. Obviously not everybody admitted was 170+, but this is a lowball estimate). This results in 1,164 x 0.25 + 1,334 x 0.5 + 1,021 x 0.75 = 1,724 students attending T14 with a score below 170.
At least 1,724 students were admitted to T14 with a score lower than 170, meaning at most 2,562 students are attending T14 with a score of 170+ (obviously the real number is lower than this).
3,375 test takers over 170 - 2,562 attending over 170 = 813 students not attending T14 with a score of 170+.
Now, a few things to keep in mind:
- The number of students admitted with a 170+ is an overestimation, so the number not admitted to T14 with 170+ is likely larger than 813.
- However, the number of test takers with a score over 170 is also likely an overestimation, since test takers have been declining.
- There are people who score 170+ and do not apply to law school (like me), and there are people with a 170 who were admitted and had the chance to attend T14 but chose not to. However, there are also people with a score below 170 who were admitted and had the chance to attend T14, but chose not to. For the sake of simplicity this number is ignored, but it's rather significant.
Final calculation:
2,562 students attending/3,375 students with 170+ = 0.76
So, roughly, you have a 76% chance of T14 with an LSAT of 170+. Edit: Let's just pull a standard error out of my ass, like, 20%. So your odds are between 56% and 96%, while likely being heavily dependent on where you fall in the 170-180 scale.
In the T14, if you scored below 170, there are at least ~1,724 slots open for you, out of the 4,286 available. That's about 40% of the C/O 2016 in T14. Basically half of the students have scores below 170. Take from that what you will.
For splitters like me, this is actually bad news.
My GPA is definitely in the bottom 24% of applicants with an LSAT score of 170+, so if they're dinging anybody with a 170+, it's going to be me. Oh well, still gonna apply, fingers crossed, but there you have it. Oh, if only LSAT medians were all-important.
I don't think there's enough information to make guesstimates for 99th percentile (173+), or the golden 175+, or 180s.
Again, this is all just for fun rough estimations. I'm doing this with super limited information, and would be curious what anybody with more information has to add. I'm also tired so my numbers may be way off, if anybody has corrections for me feel free.
I'm not sure if it's always this way, but in my administration of 2012, 170 was 97th percentile. That means 3% of test takers scored 170 or higher. There were 112,515 test takers total. That leaves ~3,375 test takers who scored 170 or higher.
Considering how LSAT test administrations are decreasing, that number should also be decreasing.
Of the T14, only T6 have managed to maintain a 170 median.
The below calculations were done with numbers from the medians thread for C/O 2016, which is 1 year removed from the LSAT administration I'm discussing, so it's not perfectly matched, but we're just talking in roundabout numbers here.
We can do a lowball estimate of all the admitted students who scored under 170 by calculating from each school's median that is below 170. (the 25th of both Yale and Harvard were 170 in 2016, so they're excluded from this calculation. Obviously not everybody admitted was 170+, but this is a lowball estimate). This results in 1,164 x 0.25 + 1,334 x 0.5 + 1,021 x 0.75 = 1,724 students attending T14 with a score below 170.
At least 1,724 students were admitted to T14 with a score lower than 170, meaning at most 2,562 students are attending T14 with a score of 170+ (obviously the real number is lower than this).
3,375 test takers over 170 - 2,562 attending over 170 = 813 students not attending T14 with a score of 170+.
Now, a few things to keep in mind:
- The number of students admitted with a 170+ is an overestimation, so the number not admitted to T14 with 170+ is likely larger than 813.
- However, the number of test takers with a score over 170 is also likely an overestimation, since test takers have been declining.
- There are people who score 170+ and do not apply to law school (like me), and there are people with a 170 who were admitted and had the chance to attend T14 but chose not to. However, there are also people with a score below 170 who were admitted and had the chance to attend T14, but chose not to. For the sake of simplicity this number is ignored, but it's rather significant.
Final calculation:
2,562 students attending/3,375 students with 170+ = 0.76
So, roughly, you have a 76% chance of T14 with an LSAT of 170+. Edit: Let's just pull a standard error out of my ass, like, 20%. So your odds are between 56% and 96%, while likely being heavily dependent on where you fall in the 170-180 scale.
In the T14, if you scored below 170, there are at least ~1,724 slots open for you, out of the 4,286 available. That's about 40% of the C/O 2016 in T14. Basically half of the students have scores below 170. Take from that what you will.
For splitters like me, this is actually bad news.
My GPA is definitely in the bottom 24% of applicants with an LSAT score of 170+, so if they're dinging anybody with a 170+, it's going to be me. Oh well, still gonna apply, fingers crossed, but there you have it. Oh, if only LSAT medians were all-important.
I don't think there's enough information to make guesstimates for 99th percentile (173+), or the golden 175+, or 180s.
Again, this is all just for fun rough estimations. I'm doing this with super limited information, and would be curious what anybody with more information has to add. I'm also tired so my numbers may be way off, if anybody has corrections for me feel free.