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I was putting different combos into mylsn and it looks like no matter the numbers, over half the people accepted are getting scholarships (e.g. 171/3.8, 4 of 9 accepted, but 3 of 4 get scholarship averaging $40k).

NYU has combos where there are 20 admits and two get a scholarship, but it seems like Chicago says "If you get in, you're getting something" (usually around 30k).

Is my sample size too small? Are there thoughts on this? It looks like Chicago is essentially just using a 40k tuition.

According to LSAC, only ~60% of students get any money.

ED students don't generally get money (though there are exceptions). Other than that, last year at least most people got something. If you get in and their initial offer is $0 I would definitely appeal, your odds are probably good.