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Posted: **Sat Jan 12, 2013 11:08 pm**

As someone above every median, this thread excites me because it also means HYSCCN would need to come up with a seriosly good reason to reject me/not give me $$$.

Posted: **Sat Jan 12, 2013 11:14 pm**

I'm splitting medians for H and S and praying my Hail Mary comes through here.

Posted: **Sat Jan 12, 2013 11:16 pm**

Posted: **Sat Jan 12, 2013 11:35 pm**

This doesn't explain people being put on hold/WL at MVP, though, especially with decent LSATs. You'd think they'd be almost auto-admits. Either there will be lots of late admits or some schools are going to try to cut 15 or so people from their classes. Also, CP only says that 175+ decreased 30%. It's probably safe to say that 17x decreased some, but it may be better to be conservative and err on the side of like, 10%?

Posted: **Sat Jan 12, 2013 11:39 pm**

wert3813 wrote:
twinkletoes16 wrote:I'm splitting medians for H and S and praying my Hail Mary comes through here.
Splitting which way?

Above median LSAT for H and above 75th for S, below 25th GPA

Posted: **Sat Jan 12, 2013 11:41 pm**

Posted: **Sat Jan 12, 2013 11:45 pm**

twinkletoes16 wrote:
wert3813 wrote:
twinkletoes16 wrote:I'm splitting medians for H and S and praying my Hail Mary comes through here.
Splitting which way?
Above median LSAT, below median GPA (below 25th for H)

Well I hope you get in so you can free a spot up at NYU for a splitter

Posted: **Sat Jan 12, 2013 11:46 pm**

wert3813 wrote:
LRGhost wrote:This doesn't explain people being put on hold/WL at MVP, though, especially with decent LSATs. You'd think they'd be almost auto-admits. Either there will be lots of late admits or some schools are going to try to cut 15 or so people from their classes. Also, CP only says that 175+ decreased 30%. It's probably safe to say that 17x decreased some, but it may be better to be conservative and err on the side of like, 10%?
Sorry go to the next page. KevinP says it.

Wow. It was like two posts down. Thanks.

FWIW, a school can have a median of 170 and still have like another 20% of people 'below' it also at 170. It's not an average.

For example, if you have 12 matriculants.

Code: Select all

175
175
175  (this is the 75th number they'd use)
170
170
170  (this is median [not really but whatever])
170
170 
169  
169  (this is 25th)
165
165

Really rough and sort of inaccurate, but it's median, not average.

Posted: **Sat Jan 12, 2013 11:47 pm**

LRGhost wrote:
twinkletoes16 wrote:
wert3813 wrote:
twinkletoes16 wrote:I'm splitting medians for H and S and praying my Hail Mary comes through here.
Splitting which way?
Above median LSAT, below median GPA (below 25th for H)
Well I hope you get in so you can free a spot up at NYU for a splitter

Haha ill do my best. I'm likely going to berk unless somewhere significant gives me $ (H need-based aid?!?!?? Lol not happening)

Posted: **Sat Jan 12, 2013 11:51 pm**

Posted: **Sat Jan 12, 2013 11:54 pm**

Posted: **Sat Jan 12, 2013 11:55 pm**

wert3813 wrote:http://www.lsac.org/lsacresources/data/ ... erdata.pdf

I love how one person retook a 180. And went down, of course.

Posted: **Sat Jan 12, 2013 11:56 pm**

Posted: **Sat Jan 12, 2013 11:57 pm**

wert3813 wrote:Also, Harvard just issued their first holds and, as best as I could tell, every single person is below both medians. Not a single splitter or person above median.

Just edited my post about why I think you're under-counting the number of 170s at schools. I could be wrong, but I think this is how they do median. It's probably likely that schools are going to have a wealth of 17x 'below' the posted median. I know you added ~68, but it could be significantly more. That said, I think a number of 17xs go outside the T14 for money, location, etc.

I also think schools are going to try to decrease class sizes by 5-10%. IIRC, there were really any big drops in size at the T14 last year, but idk, at the same time, everyone is contending with the same pool and medians used to be significantly lower before and there's no inherent value to having a median at whatever number; it is a relative value. So idk.

Posted: **Sun Jan 13, 2013 12:01 am**

Posted: **Sun Jan 13, 2013 12:02 am**

wert3813 wrote:
LRGhost wrote:This doesn't explain people being put on hold/WL at MVP, though, especially with decent LSATs. You'd think they'd be almost auto-admits. Either there will be lots of late admits or some schools are going to try to cut 15 or so people from their classes. Also, CP only says that 175+ decreased 30%. It's probably safe to say that 17x decreased some, but it may be better to be conservative and err on the side of like, 10%?
I think it does.

Dings are WAY down. To me this is because, one, they aren't YPing people. And, two, there is no reason to take splitters (and by this I literally mean people who split medians however slightly) or people below median yet. Seriously, what incentive do schools have to take people early? I'm no more likely to go to MVP if they accept me in March vs. next week.

I like to think that Adcomms sat around before the December tests went out saying "the numbers will go up, right guys?" which is why everything is going slow. Though in actuality I am sure you are right.

Posted: **Sun Jan 13, 2013 12:09 am**

wert3813 wrote:
LRGhost wrote:
wert3813 wrote:
LRGhost wrote:This doesn't explain people being put on hold/WL at MVP, though, especially with decent LSATs. You'd think they'd be almost auto-admits. Either there will be lots of late admits or some schools are going to try to cut 15 or so people from their classes. Also, CP only says that 175+ decreased 30%. It's probably safe to say that 17x decreased some, but it may be better to be conservative and err on the side of like, 10%?
Sorry go to the next page. KevinP says it.
Wow. It was like two posts down. Thanks.

FWIW, a school can have a median of 170 and still have like another 20% of people 'below' it also at 170. It's not an average.

For example, if you have 12 matriculants.
Code: Select all
175
175
175  (this is the 75th number they'd use)
170
170
170  (this is median [not really but whatever])
170
170 
169  
169  (this is 25th)
165
165
Really rough and sort of inaccurate, but it's median, not average.
Right and this is a point everyone needs to understand. The calculation I did are basically (applicants) worst case scenario. It's very conceivable that T14+Vandy-Cornell, NYU, & Chicago could include another 40 or 50 170+ matriculants on top of the 2211 number I estimated for the reason you explain above.

Didn't even realize what I was saying, my bad. You were already low-balling.

Posted: **Sun Jan 13, 2013 12:12 am**

Posted: **Sun Jan 13, 2013 12:13 am**

ncc5 wrote:
wert3813 wrote:
LRGhost wrote:This doesn't explain people being put on hold/WL at MVP, though, especially with decent LSATs. You'd think they'd be almost auto-admits. Either there will be lots of late admits or some schools are going to try to cut 15 or so people from their classes. Also, CP only says that 175+ decreased 30%. It's probably safe to say that 17x decreased some, but it may be better to be conservative and err on the side of like, 10%?
I think it does.

Dings are WAY down. To me this is because, one, they aren't YPing people. And, two, there is no reason to take splitters (and by this I literally mean people who split medians however slightly) or people below median yet. Seriously, what incentive do schools have to take people early? I'm no more likely to go to MVP if they accept me in March vs. next week.
I like to think that Adcomms sat around before the December tests went out saying "the numbers will go up, right guys?" which is why everything is going slow. Though in actuality I am sure you are right.

It's probably slow because they wanted to see Dec. knowing that it was going to be at least nominally similar to last year. I guess we just have to wait and see if they have a 'solution'.

Posted: **Sun Jan 13, 2013 12:18 am**

Why is vandy in this list?

Posted: **Sun Jan 13, 2013 12:19 am**

Posted: **Sun Jan 13, 2013 12:21 am**

Posted: **Sun Jan 13, 2013 12:25 am**

wert3813 wrote:
dingbat wrote:Why is vandy in this list?
Did you read?

You include berkeley and cornell, but leave off Texas. It's nice to do the math, but, there's parts missing. How many past test takers sat out a cycle? How many 170+ers go to other schools? Will schools reduce their incoming class size? (I'm looking at you, Georgetown), etc., etc.

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