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Everyone on these forums is talking about how next cycle is going to be fantastic for applicants.

I worry that this might not be the case because of people who applied last cycle but are deciding to re-apply this cycle in hopes of getting better results.

Obviously, this, ironically, might result in everyone's chances being lower.

Here's the data I have to back up this worry:

This year, 87% of the relative number of applicants who applied this cycle have marked themselves as attending their school of choice as did last cycle on LSN.

That's a pretty substantial drop. I see three reasonable possibilities:

1) It's a random statistical fluctuation.
2) People simply haven't updated their status yet. After all, this cycle is technically not over.
3) People aren't attending the schools they were accepted to because they have either chosen to no longer attend law school or to wait a cycle.

I can't really eliminate 1, though I will tell you that the sample size is pretty large: more than 5000 applications in total.

To eliminate 2, I took LSN data and only included applications that had been updated a year or more ago, meaning that they had marked themselves as attending before this time last year. When you do that, it's up to 91% of that of last year.

Anyone have any thoughts on this? I could be misinterpreting the data by missing some sort of other possibility.

But if this actually reflects reality, I sure hope that most of these applicants are just deciding against law school in the first place rather than deciding to re-apply.

This is only including data from T14 schools.

Here's the raw data I got if you're curious:

Overall:

2010-2011 accepted: 2707
2010-2011 attending: 443
2011-2012 accepted: 3103
2011-2012 attending: 442

Adjusted for LSN profiles updated before this time last year:

2010-2011 accepted: 2624
2010-2011 attending: 412
2011-2012 accepted: 3103
2011-2012 attending: 442

LSATSCORES2012 wrote:Everyone on these forums is talking about how next cycle is going to be fantastic for applicants.

I worry that this might not be the case because of people who applied last cycle but are deciding to re-apply this cycle in hopes of getting better results.

Obviously, this, ironically, might result in everyone's chances being lower.

Here's the data I have to back up this worry:

This year, 87% of the relative number of applicants who applied this cycle have marked themselves as attending their school of choice as did last cycle on LSN.

That's a pretty substantial drop. I see three reasonable possibilities:

1) It's a random statistical fluctuation.
2) People simply haven't updated their status yet. After all, this cycle is technically not over.
3) People aren't attending the schools they were accepted to because they have either chosen to no longer attend law school or to wait a cycle.

I can't really eliminate 1, though I will tell you that the sample size is pretty large: more than 5000 applications in total.

To eliminate 2, I took LSN data and only included applications that had been updated a year or more ago, meaning that they had marked themselves as attending before this time last year. When you do that, it's up to 91% of that of last year.

Anyone have any thoughts on this? I could be misinterpreting the data by missing some sort of other possibility.

But if this actually reflects reality, I sure hope that most of these applicants are just deciding against law school in the first place rather than deciding to re-apply.

This is only including data from T14 schools.

Here's the raw data I got if you're curious:

Overall:

2010-2011 accepted: 2707
2010-2011 attending: 443
2011-2012 accepted: 3103
2011-2012 attending: 442

Adjusted for LSN profiles updated before this time last year:

2010-2011 accepted: 2624
2010-2011 attending: 412
2011-2012 accepted: 3103
2011-2012 attending: 442

Tls users represent like .08% of LS applicant including those who just browse. The fact that a handful of them will be re-applying next year will have no effect.

post assumes people read

Yeah, I think re-applicants will have a minor affect if any at all -- I would be worried about schools reacting to diminishing tuition revenues by adjusting their scholarship funding though. We need to breed a new crop of hardballers for the upcoming cycle. W/r/t the ease of admissions, it's hard to say at this point. Most people think that class sizes will be reduced, but of course what's really important is the quality/size of the applicant pool, which is yet to be determined.

justonemoregame wrote:Yeah, I think re-applicants will have a minor affect if any at all -- I would be worried about schools reacting to diminishing tuition revenues by adjusting their scholarship funding though. We need to breed a new crop of hardballers for the upcoming cycle. W/r/t the ease of admissions, it's hard to say at this point. Most people think that class sizes will be reduced, but of course what's really important is the quality/size of the applicant pool, which is yet to be determined.

Elaborate, please.

As far as whether it will be 'easier' to get into the school you want, that depends. Depends on how many LSAT takers there are for the next three administrations and how schools react to this past cycle. And whether it will be any easier to put oneself in a reasonable financial situation with regard to cost v. employment prospects depends on this as well.

And generally, I think the more people that are aware of being able to ask schools for more money, the better.

justonemoregame wrote:As far as whether it will be 'easier' to get into the school you want, that depends. Depends on how many LSAT takers there are for the next three administrations and how schools react to this past cycle. And whether it will be any easier to put oneself in a reasonable financial situation with regard to cost v. employment prospects depends on this as well.

And generally, I think the more people that are aware of being able to ask schools for more money, the better.

Got it, thanks.