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Now that the economy is on the up, can the class of 14 expect better OCI results than the past couple of classes?

Art0 wrote:Now that the economy is on the up, can the class of 14 expect better OCI results than the past couple of classes?

If the economy stays the way it is or gets better - same as the last couple but maybe a little more leeway.

If the economy gets worse - LOL FUCKED.

Art0 wrote:Now that the economy is on the up, can the class of 14 expect better OCI results than the past couple of classes?

CO 2013 hasn't even made it through OCI and callbacks, once that has happened maybe we can start thinking about what will change next year.

Art0 wrote:Now that the economy is on the up, can the class of 14 expect better OCI results than the past couple of classes?

My guess is it will be better than 08-10 BUT never again like the 80s-90s to early 2000s

Too distant in the future to be useful. That's like asking the 2007 what 2009 would be like. The models and bottles predictions fell flat?

Nobody has a clue.

/thread

Models and bottles (assuming economy keeps going on present course). Sullcrom had > 130 SAs this summer. Skadden, PW, Cleary, and DPW are edging near 100 again. Kirkland has been exploding the past two years.

The big unknown is what everyone else does. Chicago firms seem tentatively poised to start hiring again. Firms in other markets have had two lean summers, I'd imagine a decent number are in a position to think about bringing in some more flow.

The good news is we do our 2L OCI in 2012, allowing enough of a buffer in the event of the election of a President who wants to massively shrink the Federal Gov't (and the number Federal Employees/Federal Lawyers employed, which would ripple to hurt private sector employment, not to mention any economic repercussions).

aliarrow wrote:The good news is we do our 2L OCI in 2012, allowing enough of a buffer in the event of the election of a President who wants to massively shrink the Federal Gov't (and the number Federal Employees/Federal Lawyers employed, which would ripple to hurt private sector employment, not to mention any economic repercussions).

AreJay711 wrote:

aliarrow wrote:The good news is we do our 2L OCI in 2012, allowing enough of a buffer in the event of the election of a President who wants to massively shrink the Federal Gov't (and the number Federal Employees/Federal Lawyers employed, which would ripple to hurt private sector employment, not to mention any economic repercussions).

Aliarrow is never wrong.

AreJay711 wrote:

aliarrow wrote:The good news is we do our 2L OCI in 2012, allowing enough of a buffer in the event of the election of a President who wants to massively shrink the Federal Gov't (and the number Federal Employees/Federal Lawyers employed, which would ripple to hurt private sector employment, not to mention any economic repercussions).

That part is fact (reduction of Fed Employees). I didn't go into potential Economic Consequences since that's ideological and would require subjective interpretation.

This thread will be useful only as a consolidation of all armageddon pictures.

aliarrow wrote:

AreJay711 wrote:

aliarrow wrote:The good news is we do our 2L OCI in 2012, allowing enough of a buffer in the event of the election of a President who wants to massively shrink the Federal Gov't (and the number Federal Employees/Federal Lawyers employed, which would ripple to hurt private sector employment, not to mention any economic repercussions).

That part is fact (reduction of Fed Employees). I didn't go into potential Economic Consequences since that's ideological and would require subjective interpretation.

I was talking about the ripple into private sector but whatever; I don't feel like diverting this thread. Also, economic consequences are not ideological, just uncertain.

Anyway what I hope (Fallout 3 Green World Mod):

rayiner wrote:Models and bottles (assuming economy keeps going on present course). Sullcrom had > 130 SAs this summer. Skadden, PW, Cleary, and DPW are edging near 100 again. Kirkland has been exploding the past two years.

The big unknown is what everyone else does. Chicago firms seem tentatively poised to start hiring again. Firms in other markets have had two lean summers, I'd imagine a decent number are in a position to think about bringing in some more flow.

God I hope so.

rayiner wrote:Models and bottles (assuming economy keeps going on present course). Sullcrom had > 130 SAs this summer. Skadden, PW, Cleary, and DPW are edging near 100 again. Kirkland has been exploding the past two years.

Keep in mind you just named a bunch of firms that require, at a minimum, a top third class rank at a T14 school (or top half at a T6). And most of them are really looking for top 10% from T14. Also, you shouldn't include Skadden - their SA classes are still nowhere near pre-ITE level.

Yeah, the top NYC firms have recovered and are basically back to hiring the same way they did 5 years ago. The rest of the market is still WAY more competitive because class sizes are still WAY down.

So basically if you have the credentials for a V20 or similar firm (top 1/3 or better at T14 or better) then OCI will probably go swimmingly, just as it would have 5 years ago. But if your credentials are any worse then things are a lot tougher than they were 5 years ago.

RVP11 wrote:

rayiner wrote:Models and bottles (assuming economy keeps going on present course). Sullcrom had > 130 SAs this summer. Skadden, PW, Cleary, and DPW are edging near 100 again. Kirkland has been exploding the past two years.

Keep in mind you just named a bunch of firms that require, at a minimum, a top third class rank at a T14 school (or top half at a T6). And most of them are really looking for top 10% from T14. Also, you shouldn't include Skadden - their SA classes are still nowhere near pre-ITE level.

Yeah, the top NYC firms have recovered and are basically back to hiring the same way they did 5 years ago. The rest of the market is still WAY more competitive because class sizes are still WAY down.

So basically if you have the credentials for a V20 or similar firm (top 1/3 or better at T14 or better) then OCI will probably go swimmingly, just as it would have 5 years ago. But if your credentials are any worse then things are a lot tougher than they were 5 years ago.

I was being somewhat glib, but my general point was that work is picking back up. Mostly at the top right now, but rising tide and whatnot.

bdubs wrote:http://www.bakadesuyo.com/can-pessimism-be-a-good-thing

Wow.

pessimists tend to be losers on many fronts. But there is one striking exception. Pessimists fare better in law.

Possibly the best description I've seen of TLS.

RVP11 wrote: Keep in mind you just named a bunch of firms that require, at a minimum, a top third class rank at a T14 school (or top half at a T6). And most of them are really looking for top 10% from T14. Also, you shouldn't include Skadden - their SA classes are still nowhere near pre-ITE level.

So the T14 churns out some 4500 JDs per year. I guess the question is whether biglaw recruiting has recovered to the extent that there's positions for those sort of numbers?

albanach wrote:

RVP11 wrote: Keep in mind you just named a bunch of firms that require, at a minimum, a top third class rank at a T14 school (or top half at a T6). And most of them are really looking for top 10% from T14. Also, you shouldn't include Skadden - their SA classes are still nowhere near pre-ITE level.

So the T14 churns out some 4500 JDs per year. I guess the question is whether biglaw recruiting has recovered to the extent that there's positions for those sort of numbers?

Not sure what you're getting at.

RVP11 wrote:
Not sure what you're getting at.

Well, rayiner tells us of 500 or so positions at a small group of firms (that you helpfully pointed out were very difficult to get in to). Now, if the rest of the V100 had an average summer class of 40, then there'd be the possibility of a SA position for practically everyone above the bottom 1/3 at T14 schools (figuring that by far the majority of spots will be filled from those schools). That would make the recruitment situation pretty good.

If, on the other hand, there's recruitment going on at the top ten firms, but the rest remain pretty stagnant then the situation could be pretty dire.

I think we were getting at the same thing - knowing recruitment is happening at five firms is welcome news, but doesn't really tell the whole story.

albanach wrote:

RVP11 wrote:
Not sure what you're getting at.

Well, rayiner tells us of 500 or so positions at a small group of firms (that you helpfully pointed out were very difficult to get in to). Now, if the rest of the V100 had an average summer class of 40, then there'd be the possibility of a SA position for practically everyone above the bottom 1/3 at T14 schools (figuring that by far the majority of spots will be filled from those schools). That would make the recruitment situation pretty good.

If, on the other hand, there's recruitment going on at the top ten firms, but the rest remain pretty stagnant then the situation could be pretty dire.

I think we were getting at the same thing - knowing recruitment is happening at five firms is welcome news, but doesn't really tell the whole story.

Going down the V20, comparing summer '10 to summer '11:

Wachtell: 17 -> 17
Cravath: 22 -> 45
Sullivan: 73 -> 129
Skadden: 74 -> 81
Davis Polk: 79 -> 93
Simpson: 72 -> 100
Weil: 36 -> 70
Williams & Connelly: 21 -> 27
Cleary: 75 -> 93
Covington DC: 54 -> 47
Kirkland: 68 -> 130
Paul Weiss NY: 58 -> 80
Debevoise: 52 -> 56
Gibson: 108 -> 107
Latham (NY): 25 -> 47
Sidley (NY): 12 -> 26
Wilmer (DC): 27 -> 37
Jones Day (NY): 19 -> 21
Quinn: 26 -> 44
White & Case (NY): 21 -> 35
Total: 939 -> 1285 (+37%)

Now, the rest of the V100 does not look as good. But there are tentative steps. Shearman is up from 27 -> 37. OMM from 55 -> 69. Orrick SF from 2 -> 10, Orrick NY from 0 -> 17, MoFo SF from 19 -> 24. Alston & Bird Atlanta is 14 -> 28. Finnegan DC from 11 -> 16. Ropes from 76 -> 118.

2012 was tentatively better than 2011. I think 2013 will get better at least as much as 2011 -> 2012. At that point, it won't be 2007 again, but it probably won't be much worse, at least in the T14, than it was before the bubble-induced upturn.

Hopefully the upswing of V20 hiring will have an impact in markets other than NY, DC, Chicago. When I talked to an SMU career center rep, they said they'd seen considerably more T14 grads coming to the DFW market in 2009 and 2010 that normally would've taken jobs in the aforementioned markets. This obviously wasn't good news for SMU grads- I would imagine the same thing happened (at varying extents) to U of H, Emory, Vandy grads as well.