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Situation
I'm looking for advice on where I should ED this coming fall. I'm a reapplicant who majorly screwed up my past cycle (applying late, not retaking, etc). With this cycle I am aiming to get into the best school I can (obviously) but I am trying to maximize my chances, which makes choosing where to ED difficult. My goals are to work in SF/NYC primarily or LA/Chi/DC secondarily (preference for the first 2 but settling for the last 3 isn't that bad).

Stats
GPA: 2.8
LSAT: 166/173/Retaking Oct 2010
Ethnicity: URM (PR)
W/E: 30 hrs/week, 1/2 year at time of application, 1.5 years at time of matriculation (mentioning this specifically for NU, if it matters)
Softs: Nothing worth mentioning, basically just random honors and part time work.

Schools
NYU: Super reach. Only really useful if I feel like shooting for the absolute stars and hoping for scholarships from lower schools.
Michigan: Semi-reach. My top realistic choice.
Virginia: Semi-reach. My second realistic choice.
Northwestern: Target (if w/e counts)? If the w/e counts then ED'ing here might also be a safe option for
GULC: Target? ED'ing here would be the safest bet but I would prefer to shoot higher if shooting higher is realistic.

Thoughts
I'm not really debt-averse so scholarships are not that big a draw, though I wouldn't want to turn down money if it was an option. Mainly I just want to get into the strongest program I can. If UVA keeps their current no deadline, 15 day policy then this allows for two ED's (though I understand ED'ing to UVA later will not be as good as doing it earlier). NU's ED policy will not allow me to double dip and ED to UVA as well. NYU seems like a long shot.

Basically I feel that NU and GULC are shooting too low for an ED. NYU seems too high. I think my best bet would be to ED to Michigan, if I don't get in then ED to UVA on Dec 15 (when M's ED decisions are rendered). This is also attractive because M's ED decisions are before several others (who notify in late Dec) and so I will be able to get my second ED to UVA in earlier than other people who are doing the same thing and that my ED to UVA will be in earlier in general.

What do you guys think? Should I just ED to NYU and then let the dust settle with the regular apps to the lower T14? Should I be more conservative and ED to NU or GULC? Are there other schools I should be considering for my ED other than those I mentioned?

Also, what does retaking in October do to my calculations? Do ED apps have a significant advantage if they go complete early as opposed to later due to the October score (which will be end of October)? Is it worth it to wait until I get my October score to send in the ED in case the score changes where I should send it (for reference, I was PT averaging 178 prior to the 173, but dominating PT's is easy)?

I know it's a lot, but any help is appreciated. Thanks all. Apologies for the wall of text and any rambling contained within.

By the looks of it, you've taken a more considered approach to your application than pretty much anyone else around. Your worries stem from your being a splitter, and there is pretty much nothing any of us can say to help you. Some on this site will tell you to ED at NW. Yet others will go with the double ED strategy (which I would recommend). I do think that a WL will come with an NYU ED for sure. The LSAT retake won't help too much, because you are already above median at all schools (well, as a high score). If schools really do average the LSATs, then a third take won't change the average much. But your cycle is very tough to predict.

One thing I would say is that you have to be prepared to get no scholarship offers from any school. Your URM status will help a bit. But the fact remains that you are not above the median for both numbers at any school you are applying to. This makes scholarships hard to come by.

Thanks, the reason I've taken such a considered approach this time is because last time I probably put the less effort than anyone else into my app.

I don't expect schools to average my LSAT scores, though I do feel if I score a 175 it is going to give me a decent boost compared to having just the 173. Anybody else's thoughts on this?

I feel like a NYU waitlist is a stretch, I would expect something along the lines of a deferral to a rejection/waitlist.

I'm wondering if people think that Mich isn't enough of a reach for ED and I should try NYU, or if Mich is too much of a reach and I should do NU or GULC.

Being a supersplitter URM makes available data hard to come by. I predict a lot of WL's in the lower T14 but with no idea whether I will get off them or not.