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So I had a question, I am deciding between 2 schools as well as riding some waitlists.
1 school has offered me minimal merit aid, but significant first year need based grants
the second has offered me only merit aid.
Does anyone know how likely receiving the same or similar need based aid in the 2nd and 3rd years is?
As it stands the need aid makes school 1 slightly more affordable year 1, but if not renewed school two becomes significantly more affordable over the full three year period.

This is the question of questions of TLS. I've asked some 1Ls though and they say you pretty much get the same package 2L and 3L. I hope they're right. Can any 2Ls or 3Ls chime in? I'm begging.

This might vary/almost certainly varies from school to school. Two considerations:
1.) Do they calculate 2L and 3L need using the same formula as for 1L? If this isn't clear from their website, ask them.
2.) Are your financial numbers likely to change? For the schools I was considering, need based aid would crater my 3L year if I had a firm gig my 2L summer. Probably the best way to get an answer for your particular school is to think about things that might change your numbers (summer earnings being the most obvious answer if you're looking at biglaw-capable schools) and look up or call about their relevant policies.

I was offered significant need aid to the school I'll be attending. I spoke with the financial aid officer and she said that the same package will be offered my 2L and 3L years unless there is a "significant change" to my overall finances.