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Is Applying RD for URM's a Gamble?

Posted: Sun Jul 14, 2013 4:03 pm
by femmefatale
Hi-
Does applying RD as opposed to ED for URM's severely reduce one's chances of getting into a T14+ school?
In my specific situation, I plan on having all of my applications submitted by late November.

I would like to know if applying in late fall will give other URM's who are applying in September/Early November a significant advantage over me?

I've heard that application cycles for URM's can be very unpredictable and I would like to know if timing plays a role in this (or if timing only adds significantly to this unpredictability if you're applying in January/February).

Re: Is Applying RD for URM's a Gamble?

Posted: Sun Jul 14, 2013 4:05 pm
by t-14orbust
LSAT and GPA?

Re: Is Applying RD for URM's a Gamble?

Posted: Sun Jul 14, 2013 4:07 pm
by John_rizzy_rawls
Applying early isn't as big a boost for URMs as it is for non-URMs. As long as you apply before January, you should be fine.

EDing is also not very beneficial for URMs with decent numbers due to unpredictability and ability to out-perform numbers, then using multiple acceptances to negotiate scholarship money.

So yeah, applying anytime in Fall, RD is usually the way to go for URMs.

Re: Is Applying RD for URM's a Gamble?

Posted: Sun Jul 14, 2013 4:07 pm
by bosmer88
While the earlier the better is always good, turning in your applications by Thanksgiving should put you a good position.

What is your LSAT and GPA?

Re: Is Applying RD for URM's a Gamble?

Posted: Sun Jul 14, 2013 5:40 pm
by femmefatale
Thanks for the quick replies!

A little bit of background:
I'm studying for the LSAT right now and am taking the exam in October (currently scoring in low 160's but am hoping to increase my score)

My GPA is "low". Graduated from a top liberal arts college with a 3.4. I had an upward trend starting second semester junior year (Received a 3.7-3.8 GPA each semester up until graduation)

Re: Is Applying RD for URM's a Gamble?

Posted: Sun Jul 14, 2013 5:45 pm
by John_rizzy_rawls
If you score above 167 with a 3.4 GPA you'll have a great cycle.

170+ and you're probably looking at H and S.

Re: Is Applying RD for URM's a Gamble?

Posted: Sun Jul 14, 2013 5:47 pm
by femmefatale
John_rizzy_rawls wrote:Applying early isn't as big a boost for URMs as it is for non-URMs. As long as you apply before January, you should be fine.

EDing is also not very beneficial for URMs with decent numbers due to unpredictability and ability to out-perform numbers, then using multiple acceptances to negotiate scholarship money.

So yeah, applying anytime in Fall, RD is usually the way to go for URMs.
Good to know. At this point, I definitely don't plan on applying ED anywhere. I just hope that my numbers are good enough to fall into the "decent" category.

Re: Is Applying RD for URM's a Gamble?

Posted: Sun Jul 14, 2013 6:24 pm
by unc0mm0n1
John_rizzy_rawls wrote:If you score above 167 with a 3.4 GPA you'll have a great cycle.

170+ and you're probably looking at H and S.
Depends on what type of URM but generally this is good advice.

Re: Is Applying RD for URM's a Gamble?

Posted: Sun Jul 14, 2013 6:48 pm
by femmefatale
unc0mm0n1 wrote:
John_rizzy_rawls wrote:If you score above 167 with a 3.4 GPA you'll have a great cycle.

170+ and you're probably looking at H and S.
Depends on what type of URM but generally this is good advice.
Ok. Well that gives me some hope.

PS - (Forgot to mention that I am an AA Female)

Re: Is Applying RD for URM's a Gamble?

Posted: Sun Jul 14, 2013 6:57 pm
by Clearly
Your original post kind of flipped between applying early, and applying early decision, which are two very different things. Your timescale is fine, just don't apply ED.

Re: Is Applying RD for URM's a Gamble?

Posted: Sun Jul 14, 2013 7:02 pm
by elterrible78
Based on my analysis of LSN data (just for URM applicants to the top-14, so data is kind of limited...take this for what it's worth).

In terms of being admitted to a school rather than rejected (leaving out waitlisted candidates whose ultimate fate is not known), controlling for LSAT score, GPA, gender, and non-trad status (as well as ED and earlier applications). The number for ED is the increase in likelihood of being accepted applying ED vs. RD. The number for applying earlier is the increase in the likelihood of being accepted for each earlier month you apply (Sep vs. Oct, Oct vs. Nov, etc.):

Columbia: ED - no impact
Applying earlier - no impact

Chicago: ED - no impact
Applying earlier - 99%

NYU: ED - no impact
Applying earlier - 32%

Penn: ED - no impact
Applying earlier - 110%

Virginia: ED - 740% (yep, that is seven hundred and forty percent)
Applying earlier - 24%

Michigan: ED - no impact
Applying earlier - 46%

Duke: ED - no impact (it's close to statistical significance, but not close enough)
Applying earlier - no impact

Northwestern: ED - no impact
Applying earlier - 45%

Georgetown: ED - no impact
Applying earlier - no impact

Re: Is Applying RD for URM's a Gamble?

Posted: Sun Jul 14, 2013 8:07 pm
by Clearly
elterrible78 wrote:Based on my analysis of LSN data (just for URM applicants to the top-14, so data is kind of limited...take this for what it's worth).

In terms of being admitted to a school rather than rejected (leaving out waitlisted candidates whose ultimate fate is not known), controlling for LSAT score, GPA, gender, and non-trad status (as well as ED and earlier applications). The number for ED is the increase in likelihood of being accepted applying ED vs. RD. The number for applying earlier is the increase in the likelihood of being accepted for each earlier month you apply (Sep vs. Oct, Oct vs. Nov, etc.):

Columbia: ED - no impact
Applying earlier - no impact

Chicago: ED - no impact
Applying earlier - 99%

NYU: ED - no impact
Applying earlier - 32%

Penn: ED - no impact
Applying earlier - 110%

Virginia: ED - 740% (yep, that is seven hundred and forty percent)
Applying earlier - 24%

Michigan: ED - no impact
Applying earlier - 46%

Duke: ED - no impact (it's close to statistical significance, but not close enough)
Applying earlier - no impact

Northwestern: ED - no impact
Applying earlier - 45%

Georgetown: ED - no impact
Applying earlier - no impact
Do you have this same concept for non-urm T14 applicants? Maybe for splitters while we're at it? lol

Re: Is Applying RD for URM's a Gamble?

Posted: Sun Jul 14, 2013 8:12 pm
by elterrible78
Clearlynotstefan wrote: Do you have this same concept for non-urm T14 applicants? Maybe for splitters while we're at it? lol
Totally...are you just looking for all non-URMs, and then splitters regardless of URM status?

Re: Is Applying RD for URM's a Gamble?

Posted: Sun Jul 14, 2013 8:18 pm
by BruceWayne
Applying ED in this economy to law school is incredibly foolish.

Re: Is Applying RD for URM's a Gamble?

Posted: Sun Jul 14, 2013 8:20 pm
by femmefatale
Clearlynotstefan wrote:Your original post kind of flipped between applying early, and applying early decision, which are two very different things. Your timescale is fine, just don't apply ED.
Thanks Stefan. Sorry for the confusion.

I am interested in how both applying ED and simply applying "early" would impact a URM's application cycle.

When applying "early" I want to know if there is a general cut off time, after which, one's chances of being admitted are significantly reduced.

You answered my question, though. I most likely will be taking your advice.

Re: Is Applying RD for URM's a Gamble?

Posted: Sun Jul 14, 2013 8:21 pm
by femmefatale
elterrible78 wrote:Based on my analysis of LSN data (just for URM applicants to the top-14, so data is kind of limited...take this for what it's worth).

In terms of being admitted to a school rather than rejected (leaving out waitlisted candidates whose ultimate fate is not known), controlling for LSAT score, GPA, gender, and non-trad status (as well as ED and earlier applications). The number for ED is the increase in likelihood of being accepted applying ED vs. RD. The number for applying earlier is the increase in the likelihood of being accepted for each earlier month you apply (Sep vs. Oct, Oct vs. Nov, etc.):

Columbia: ED - no impact
Applying earlier - no impact

Chicago: ED - no impact
Applying earlier - 99%

NYU: ED - no impact
Applying earlier - 32%

Penn: ED - no impact
Applying earlier - 110%

Virginia: ED - 740% (yep, that is seven hundred and forty percent)
Applying earlier - 24%

Michigan: ED - no impact
Applying earlier - 46%

Duke: ED - no impact (it's close to statistical significance, but not close enough)
Applying earlier - no impact

Northwestern: ED - no impact
Applying earlier - 45%

Georgetown: ED - no impact
Applying earlier - no impact
Interesting stuff. Thanks Elterible! Do you happen to have stats for HYS as well?

Re: Is Applying RD for URM's a Gamble?

Posted: Sun Jul 14, 2013 8:25 pm
by elterrible78
femmefatale wrote:
Interesting stuff. Thanks Elterible! Do you happen to have stats for HYS as well?
Well, they don't have ED, but in terms of applying a month earlier:

Yale: No impact
Harvard: 62% increase in your chances
Stanford: No impact

Hope that helps!

Re: Is Applying RD for URM's a Gamble?

Posted: Sun Jul 14, 2013 8:42 pm
by femmefatale
elterrible78 wrote:
femmefatale wrote:
Interesting stuff. Thanks Elterible! Do you happen to have stats for HYS as well?
Well, they don't have ED, but in terms of applying a month earlier:

Yale: No impact
Harvard: 62% increase in your chances
Stanford: No impact

Hope that helps!
Definitely helps. Thanks a bunch!

Re: Is Applying RD for URM's a Gamble?

Posted: Mon Jul 15, 2013 12:47 am
by DaRascal
.

Re: Is Applying RD for URM's a Gamble?

Posted: Mon Jul 15, 2013 12:49 am
by John_rizzy_rawls
Keep in mind OP is AA and you're MA/Hispanic URM, Rascal. Far different bumps.

Re: Is Applying RD for URM's a Gamble?

Posted: Mon Jul 15, 2013 12:54 am
by DaRascal
.

Re: Is Applying RD for URM's a Gamble?

Posted: Mon Jul 15, 2013 12:59 am
by John_rizzy_rawls
DaRascal wrote:
John_rizzy_rawls wrote:Keep in mind OP is AA and you're MA/Hispanic URM, Rascal. Far different bumps.
Oh completely missed that post.
Well still if she ends up below a 162 or so I think she should still seriously consider ED'ing to a T6. I don't think she should be worried about getting locked out of the T14 until she dips below 160 or 159 right?
Agreed. But if she hits 165/167/170, ED is a terrible choice and she needs to apply to the entire T14, expecting $$, T6, or HYS.