The Lsat Airbender wrote:Splurgles23 wrote:I understand law school can produce upset people who didn't end up living the lives they wanted to and so play the MMQB game, but the whole "it's objectively a bad investment" notion is outdated ATL-type cookie-cutter nonsense.
It's objectively a bad investment. The ROI on law-school tuition is dogshit, especially once the opportunity cost of not working (and advancing in another career) is taken into account, and the top 13 or so schools are commendable in that, by going to one of them, you can usually
break even over a multi-decade timespan. Putting $200-300k in a brokerage account, or even something silly like gold bullion, is a much safer bet than the vast majority of law schools.
If you disagree, I'd love to see your math.
simplified math for a T14 proving break-even:
Assumptions:
Nobody ends up in sh*tlaw, everyone has a somewhat decent outcome
Scenario 1) Let's say the average person going to a T14 could easily snag a job making $100k without going to law school, and gets $10k raises every year.
Scenario 2) COI of $75k; Three-quarter of the class gets today's NYC scale (plus bonus)
Scenario 3) two-third switch to in-house or a very good govt job after 4 years, making $200k/year with $10k raises. (this accounts for the 16% attrition rate in biglaw)
Scenario 4) the other quarter of the class makes $100k/year with $10k raises
decent govt jobs, midlaw, boutiques, etc.
Year - Cashflow 1 - Cashflow 2 - Cashflow 3 - Cashflow 4
01 - $0,100,000 = -$0,075,000 = -$0,075,000 = -$0,075,000
02 - $0,210,000 = -$0,150,000 = -$0,150,000 = -$0,150,000
03 - $0,330,000 = -$0,225,000 = -$0,225,000 = -$0,225,000
04 - $0,460,000 = -$0,020,000 = -$0,020,000 = -$0,125,000
05 - $0,600,000 = +$0,205,000 = +$0,205,000 = -$0,015,000
06 - $0,750,000 = +$0,475,000 = +$0,475,000 = +$0,135,000
07 - $0,910,000 = +$0,795,000 = +$0,795,000 = +$0,275,000
08 - $1,080,000 = +$1,155,000 = +$0,995,000 = +$0,425,000
09 - $1,260,000 = +$1,550,000 = +$1,205,000 = +$0,585,000
10 - $1,450,000 = +$1,975,000 = +$1,425,000 = +$0,755,000
11 - $1,650,000 = +$2,410,000 = +$1,655,000 = +$0,935,000
Weighted average of scenarios 2-4 = $1,663,750. Not including time-value of money, going to a T14 is only marginally better than skipping law school altogether.
If you keep going, and make a reasonable estimation for partners, it'll probably even out the time-value of money. For those who do make partner, particularly equity partner at the top few firms, yeah, it'll absolutely be worthwhile. For the vast majority, it'll at best be a wash.