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BC vs BU with NY Biglaw as an end goal

Posted: Fri Jun 23, 2017 11:36 am
by CoGar
Assuming I'm offered around the same $ at each, which would you all think gives me the best chance to land NYC Biglaw gig? From everything I see they seems almost interchangeable, with some websites hyping up one or the other for whatever reason.

Fordham or GW are my first choices but BC and BU arent far behind - Thanks!

Re: BC vs BU with NY Biglaw as an end goal

Posted: Fri Jun 23, 2017 11:38 am
by cavalier1138
How much money are you actually being offered at all these schools? Equal scholarships are meaningless if you're still going to be paying $200k.

Without any of that information, you can cross GW off the list.

Re: BC vs BU with NY Biglaw as an end goal

Posted: Fri Jun 23, 2017 11:41 am
by Winter is Coming
Agree with the above. Fordham probably makes more sense just to be in the city for networking (but % are probably around the same). But Biglaw or bust from these schools without a huge scholarship is a really bad idea.

Re: BC vs BU with NY Biglaw as an end goal

Posted: Fri Jun 23, 2017 11:53 am
by CoGar
cavalier1138 wrote:How much money are you actually being offered at all these schools? Equal scholarships are meaningless if you're still going to be paying $200k.

Without any of that information, you can cross GW off the list.
This post was more of just a feeler and to get some opinions based off what I think my numbers will get me (3.28/165) - not applying for a cycle or two. Although based on what I've come across on my.lsn, I don't see myself getting more than 30k/year from these schools.

Also why so quick to eliminate GW?

Re: BC vs BU with NY Biglaw as an end goal

Posted: Fri Jun 23, 2017 11:56 am
by UVA2B
CoGar wrote:
cavalier1138 wrote:How much money are you actually being offered at all these schools? Equal scholarships are meaningless if you're still going to be paying $200k.

Without any of that information, you can cross GW off the list.
This post was more of just a feeler and to get some opinions based off what I think my numbers will get me (3.28/165) - not applying for a cycle or two. Although based on what I've come across on my.lsn, I don't see myself getting more than 30k/year from these schools.

Also why so quick to eliminate GW?
GWU with your numbers will be insanely expensive and doesn't give you very good chances of reaching your goal. ~40% of GWU go into Biglaw period, and if you end up at median, you're already fighting a losing battle. On top of that, GWU places a good number of that 40% in DC, making the numbers look even worse for NYC. The same reasoning goes for any of these schools though. Don't spend hundreds of thousands of dollars for less than a coin flip's chance of reaching your goal.

ETA: Especially when you can retake the LSAT and give yourself much better options for your goals

Re: BC vs BU with NY Biglaw as an end goal

Posted: Fri Jun 23, 2017 12:03 pm
by CoGar
UVA2B wrote:
CoGar wrote:
cavalier1138 wrote:How much money are you actually being offered at all these schools? Equal scholarships are meaningless if you're still going to be paying $200k.

Without any of that information, you can cross GW off the list.
This post was more of just a feeler and to get some opinions based off what I think my numbers will get me (3.28/165) - not applying for a cycle or two. Although based on what I've come across on my.lsn, I don't see myself getting more than 30k/year from these schools.

Also why so quick to eliminate GW?
GWU with your numbers will be insanely expensive and doesn't give you very good chances of reaching your goal. ~40% of GWU go into Biglaw period, and if you end up at median, you're already fighting a losing battle. On top of that, GWU places a good number of that 40% in DC, making the numbers look even worse for NYC. The same reasoning goes for any of these schools though. Don't spend hundreds of thousands of dollars for less than a coin flip's chance of reaching your goal.
Isn't that assuming that every student there is shooting for Biglaw though? GW attracts alot of PI and gov't so couldn't it be said that 40% is quite a bit higher for those who want it. Just trying to get some insight as I'm in there early stages of deciding all this - not trying to be confrontational haha. Thanks again

Re: BC vs BU with NY Biglaw as an end goal

Posted: Fri Jun 23, 2017 12:06 pm
by UVA2B
CoGar wrote:
UVA2B wrote:
CoGar wrote:
cavalier1138 wrote:How much money are you actually being offered at all these schools? Equal scholarships are meaningless if you're still going to be paying $200k.

Without any of that information, you can cross GW off the list.
This post was more of just a feeler and to get some opinions based off what I think my numbers will get me (3.28/165) - not applying for a cycle or two. Although based on what I've come across on my.lsn, I don't see myself getting more than 30k/year from these schools.

Also why so quick to eliminate GW?
GWU with your numbers will be insanely expensive and doesn't give you very good chances of reaching your goal. ~40% of GWU go into Biglaw period, and if you end up at median, you're already fighting a losing battle. On top of that, GWU places a good number of that 40% in DC, making the numbers look even worse for NYC. The same reasoning goes for any of these schools though. Don't spend hundreds of thousands of dollars for less than a coin flip's chance of reaching your goal.
Isn't that assuming that every student there is shooting for Biglaw though? GW attracts alot of PI and gov't so couldn't it be said that 40% is quite a bit higher for those who want it. Just trying to get some insight as I'm in there early stages of deciding all this - not trying to be confrontational haha. Thanks again
That's a really big and risky assumption. Even if you assume all of the ~20% who go into government or PI were dead-set on going that route from the start, you're now talking 50% of the remainder of the class that presumably wanted desirable employment and didn't get it. Because no one is paying six figures in tuition and COL to end up drowning in debt and scrounging for document review work that pays $15/hr.

GWU is not very good at getting you to your stated goals. But you know what would be good at getting you to your goals? T13 once you retake the LSAT.

Re: BC vs BU with NY Biglaw as an end goal

Posted: Fri Jun 23, 2017 12:07 pm
by CoGar
UVA2B wrote:
ETA: Especially when you can retake the LSAT and give yourself much better options for your goals
Knew that was coming but I'm fairly certain I've max out when it comes to this - could maybe squeeze out 1 or 2 more points but working 50+ hours a week, I've put the LSAT grind behind me

Re: BC vs BU with NY Biglaw as an end goal

Posted: Fri Jun 23, 2017 12:12 pm
by cavalier1138
CoGar wrote:
UVA2B wrote:
ETA: Especially when you can retake the LSAT and give yourself much better options for your goals
Knew that was coming but I'm fairly certain I've max out when it comes to this - could maybe squeeze out 1 or 2 more points but working 50+ hours a week, I've put the LSAT grind behind me
Do you have a goal that isn't NYC biglaw? Because you're going to need one of those.

Re: BC vs BU with NY Biglaw as an end goal

Posted: Fri Jun 23, 2017 12:12 pm
by UVA2B
CoGar wrote:
UVA2B wrote:
ETA: Especially when you can retake the LSAT and give yourself much better options for your goals
Knew that was coming but I'm fairly certain I've max out when it comes to this - could maybe squeeze out 1 or 2 more points but working 50+ hours a week, I've put the LSAT grind behind me
Ok, even if we work under the assumption that you've maxed out your LSAT potential, then Fordham should probably be your target. It's still not great for getting you into NYC Biglaw, but it's definitely the safest to assume that the ~35-40% getting Biglaw are doing it in NYC. I guess you can apply to GWU, BC, BU, etc. for scholarship negotiation purposes, but you'll either need to be pretty comfortable with the possibility of not achieving your goals or ready to change what those goals are. It doesn't mean you won't get NYC Biglaw, but you should be mentally prepared for that likelihood, since it's realistic that through no fault of your own you could fail.

Re: BC vs BU with NY Biglaw as an end goal

Posted: Fri Jun 23, 2017 12:16 pm
by Deserving Porcupine
That gpa is going to be a huge liability, and will probably keep you from getting much $$ unless you get that lsat up a point or two.

Re: BC vs BU with NY Biglaw as an end goal

Posted: Fri Jun 23, 2017 12:58 pm
by RParadela
UVA2B wrote:
CoGar wrote:
UVA2B wrote:
CoGar wrote:
cavalier1138 wrote:How much money are you actually being offered at all these schools? Equal scholarships are meaningless if you're still going to be paying $200k.

Without any of that information, you can cross GW off the list.
This post was more of just a feeler and to get some opinions based off what I think my numbers will get me (3.28/165) - not applying for a cycle or two. Although based on what I've come across on my.lsn, I don't see myself getting more than 30k/year from these schools.

Also why so quick to eliminate GW?
GWU with your numbers will be insanely expensive and doesn't give you very good chances of reaching your goal. ~40% of GWU go into Biglaw period, and if you end up at median, you're already fighting a losing battle. On top of that, GWU places a good number of that 40% in DC, making the numbers look even worse for NYC. The same reasoning goes for any of these schools though. Don't spend hundreds of thousands of dollars for less than a coin flip's chance of reaching your goal.
Isn't that assuming that every student there is shooting for Biglaw though? GW attracts alot of PI and gov't so couldn't it be said that 40% is quite a bit higher for those who want it. Just trying to get some insight as I'm in there early stages of deciding all this - not trying to be confrontational haha. Thanks again
That's a really big and risky assumption. Even if you assume all of the ~20% who go into government or PI were dead-set on going that route from the start, you're now talking 50% of the remainder of the class that presumably wanted desirable employment and didn't get it. Because no one is paying six figures in tuition and COL to end up drowning in debt and scrounging for document review work that pays $15/hr.

GWU is not very good at getting you to your stated goals. But you know what would be good at getting you to your goals? T13 once you retake the LSAT.
Do you really think that there's THAT much of a precipitous drop off between BigLaw and whatever options you have if you don't land BigLaw? Not speaking specifically for GW, but just generally

Re: BC vs BU with NY Biglaw as an end goal

Posted: Fri Jun 23, 2017 1:00 pm
by UVA2B
RParadela wrote:
UVA2B wrote:
CoGar wrote:
UVA2B wrote:
CoGar wrote:
cavalier1138 wrote:How much money are you actually being offered at all these schools? Equal scholarships are meaningless if you're still going to be paying $200k.

Without any of that information, you can cross GW off the list.
This post was more of just a feeler and to get some opinions based off what I think my numbers will get me (3.28/165) - not applying for a cycle or two. Although based on what I've come across on my.lsn, I don't see myself getting more than 30k/year from these schools.

Also why so quick to eliminate GW?
GWU with your numbers will be insanely expensive and doesn't give you very good chances of reaching your goal. ~40% of GWU go into Biglaw period, and if you end up at median, you're already fighting a losing battle. On top of that, GWU places a good number of that 40% in DC, making the numbers look even worse for NYC. The same reasoning goes for any of these schools though. Don't spend hundreds of thousands of dollars for less than a coin flip's chance of reaching your goal.
Isn't that assuming that every student there is shooting for Biglaw though? GW attracts alot of PI and gov't so couldn't it be said that 40% is quite a bit higher for those who want it. Just trying to get some insight as I'm in there early stages of deciding all this - not trying to be confrontational haha. Thanks again
That's a really big and risky assumption. Even if you assume all of the ~20% who go into government or PI were dead-set on going that route from the start, you're now talking 50% of the remainder of the class that presumably wanted desirable employment and didn't get it. Because no one is paying six figures in tuition and COL to end up drowning in debt and scrounging for document review work that pays $15/hr.

GWU is not very good at getting you to your stated goals. But you know what would be good at getting you to your goals? T13 once you retake the LSAT.
Do you really think that there's THAT much of a precipitous drop off between BigLaw and whatever options you have if you don't land BigLaw? Not speaking specifically for GW, but just generally
Of course not, that was hyperbolic to illustrate a point. It doesn't have quite the same punch when you say "paying six figures in tuition and COL to possibly end up with a job that starts at $45k/year with questionable prospects of that salary growing."

Re: BC vs BU with NY Biglaw as an end goal

Posted: Fri Jun 23, 2017 1:06 pm
by CoGar
UVA2B wrote:
RParadela wrote:
UVA2B wrote:
CoGar wrote:
UVA2B wrote:
CoGar wrote:
cavalier1138 wrote:How much money are you actually being offered at all these schools? Equal scholarships are meaningless if you're still going to be paying $200k.

Without any of that information, you can cross GW off the list.
This post was more of just a feeler and to get some opinions based off what I think my numbers will get me (3.28/165) - not applying for a cycle or two. Although based on what I've come across on my.lsn, I don't see myself getting more than 30k/year from these schools.

Also why so quick to eliminate GW?
GWU with your numbers will be insanely expensive and doesn't give you very good chances of reaching your goal. ~40% of GWU go into Biglaw period, and if you end up at median, you're already fighting a losing battle. On top of that, GWU places a good number of that 40% in DC, making the numbers look even worse for NYC. The same reasoning goes for any of these schools though. Don't spend hundreds of thousands of dollars for less than a coin flip's chance of reaching your goal.
Isn't that assuming that every student there is shooting for Biglaw though? GW attracts alot of PI and gov't so couldn't it be said that 40% is quite a bit higher for those who want it. Just trying to get some insight as I'm in there early stages of deciding all this - not trying to be confrontational haha. Thanks again
That's a really big and risky assumption. Even if you assume all of the ~20% who go into government or PI were dead-set on going that route from the start, you're now talking 50% of the remainder of the class that presumably wanted desirable employment and didn't get it. Because no one is paying six figures in tuition and COL to end up drowning in debt and scrounging for document review work that pays $15/hr.

GWU is not very good at getting you to your stated goals. But you know what would be good at getting you to your goals? T13 once you retake the LSAT.
Do you really think that there's THAT much of a precipitous drop off between BigLaw and whatever options you have if you don't land BigLaw? Not speaking specifically for GW, but just generally
Of course not, that was hyperbolic to illustrate a point. It doesn't have quite the same punch when you say "paying six figures in tuition and COL to possibly end up with a job that starts at $45k/year with questionable prospects of that salary growing."
What private sector jobs pays 45k/year?! Even in Florida (where I'm originally from and see low starting pay) firms with 15-30 attorneys give first year associates somewhere in the 55-65 range. Most if not all of the top 350 firms in the country 100k give or take a few grand for first years and you're sure to land one of those coming from Fordham/BU/BC/GW with even the slightest effort - am I wrong?

Re: BC vs BU with NY Biglaw as an end goal

Posted: Fri Jun 23, 2017 1:13 pm
by RParadela
I agree with the first sentiment, but disagree with the second. You definitely aren't guaranteed an AMLaw350 coming from a T30

Re: BC vs BU with NY Biglaw as an end goal

Posted: Fri Jun 23, 2017 1:14 pm
by cavalier1138
CoGar wrote:What private sector jobs pays 45k/year?! Even in Florida (where I'm originally from and see low starting pay) firms with 15-30 attorneys give first year associates somewhere in the 55-65 range. Most if not all of the top 350 firms in the country 100k give or take a few grand for first years and you're sure to land one of those coming from Fordham/BU/BC/GW with even the slightest effort - am I wrong?
Yes, you are wrong on many fronts.

Salaries for new attorneys at smaller firms range between $45k and $65k. It sounds like Florida firms are on the higher end of that scale. And no, biglaw is not achievable from these schools with the "slightest effort". The most optimistic view of biglaw chances from those schools would give you a 50/50 shot. But in reality, you need to be above median to have a chance (or top third to have more security).

Re: BC vs BU with NY Biglaw as an end goal

Posted: Fri Jun 23, 2017 2:16 pm
by UVA2B
cavalier1138 wrote:
CoGar wrote:What private sector jobs pays 45k/year?! Even in Florida (where I'm originally from and see low starting pay) firms with 15-30 attorneys give first year associates somewhere in the 55-65 range. Most if not all of the top 350 firms in the country 100k give or take a few grand for first years and you're sure to land one of those coming from Fordham/BU/BC/GW with even the slightest effort - am I wrong?
Yes, you are wrong on many fronts.

Salaries for new attorneys at smaller firms range between $45k and $65k. It sounds like Florida firms are on the higher end of that scale. And no, biglaw is not achievable from these schools with the "slightest effort". The most optimistic view of biglaw chances from those schools would give you a 50/50 shot. But in reality, you need to be above median to have a chance (or top third to have more security).
To piggyback off of this, even if you use Amlaw 350 (or whatever the maximum number Amlaw goes to), the smaller the firm gets, the less positions they'll be hiring. So looking at a firm with 15-30 attorneys, which is still bigger than a lot of law offices, they may only hire one new associate a year, and sometimes not even that.

I know it seems like your goals are totally achievable and you won't have a problem knocking down a six figure salary easily from a place like GWU because you are employing a bit of confirmation bias and moxie that you'll be one of their students to come down with a good outcome, but the harsh reality is that the legal market is generally saturated where even graduates from T13 will occasionally struggle to find work, T20 will regularly have grads who struggle, and T30 will have a decent percentage of grads who struggle (this is without discussing the generally regional reach of any schools outside the T13+GULC). There is no shortage of median T30 grads in the market, and to automatically assume you'll be the median graduate who has everything work out is, as I mentioned earlier, risky. You can do make that gamble if you'd like, but realize that it is a gamble and you don't always win when you gamble. It's not that it's impossible to get the desirable outcome when you go to a place like GWU (or Fordham, BC, BU, or wherever), it's just that you should approach this rationally. That when you see 40% of students getting Biglaw, you automatically assume you'll be able to do what it takes to be in that 40%, but there is no way of knowing that as a 0L. It's very possible you could be, but it's at best equally likely you won't be. As long as you recognize that and realize the import of that fact, then you're at least aware of the actual decision you're making.

Re: BC vs BU with NY Biglaw as an end goal

Posted: Fri Jun 23, 2017 3:14 pm
by CoGar
UVA2B wrote:
cavalier1138 wrote:
CoGar wrote:What private sector jobs pays 45k/year?! Even in Florida (where I'm originally from and see low starting pay) firms with 15-30 attorneys give first year associates somewhere in the 55-65 range. Most if not all of the top 350 firms in the country 100k give or take a few grand for first years and you're sure to land one of those coming from Fordham/BU/BC/GW with even the slightest effort - am I wrong?
Yes, you are wrong on many fronts.

Salaries for new attorneys at smaller firms range between $45k and $65k. It sounds like Florida firms are on the higher end of that scale. And no, biglaw is not achievable from these schools with the "slightest effort". The most optimistic view of biglaw chances from those schools would give you a 50/50 shot. But in reality, you need to be above median to have a chance (or top third to have more security).
To piggyback off of this, even if you use Amlaw 350 (or whatever the maximum number Amlaw goes to), the smaller the firm gets, the less positions they'll be hiring. So looking at a firm with 15-30 attorneys, which is still bigger than a lot of law offices, they may only hire one new associate a year, and sometimes not even that.

I know it seems like your goals are totally achievable and you won't have a problem knocking down a six figure salary easily from a place like GWU because you are employing a bit of confirmation bias and moxie that you'll be one of their students to come down with a good outcome, but the harsh reality is that the legal market is generally saturated where even graduates from T13 will occasionally struggle to find work, T20 will regularly have grads who struggle, and T30 will have a decent percentage of grads who struggle (this is without discussing the generally regional reach of any schools outside the T13+GULC). There is no shortage of median T30 grads in the market, and to automatically assume you'll be the median graduate who has everything work out is, as I mentioned earlier, risky. You can do make that gamble if you'd like, but realize that it is a gamble and you don't always win when you gamble. It's not that it's impossible to get the desirable outcome when you go to a place like GWU (or Fordham, BC, BU, or wherever), it's just that you should approach this rationally. That when you see 40% of students getting Biglaw, you automatically assume you'll be able to do what it takes to be in that 40%, but there is no way of knowing that as a 0L. It's very possible you could be, but it's at best equally likely you won't be. As long as you recognize that and realize the import of that fact, then you're at least aware of the actual decision you're making.
I really appreciate all the info and for putting me in my place - its good to know what I'm getting myself into and how I'm going to have to work my ass off to break in to the big leagues

Re: BC vs BU with NY Biglaw as an end goal

Posted: Fri Jun 23, 2017 3:46 pm
by Winter is Coming
Obligatory: "Be careful, 1L grades aren't always tightly correlated with amount of hard work."

Re: BC vs BU with NY Biglaw as an end goal

Posted: Fri Jun 23, 2017 5:02 pm
by existentialcrisis
UVA2B wrote:
GWU with your numbers will be insanely expensive and doesn't give you very good chances of reaching your goal. ~40% of GWU go into Biglaw period, and if you end up at median, you're already fighting a losing battle. On top of that, GWU places a good number of that 40% in DC, making the numbers look even worse for NYC. The same reasoning goes for any of these schools though. Don't spend hundreds of thousands of dollars for less than a coin flip's chance of reaching your goal.

ETA: Especially when you can retake the LSAT and give yourself much better options for your goals
This.

I also think there's a bunch of reasons not to think about that 40% figure in a vacuum.

1. (I think) GW has a pretty solid IP contingency, and those people are much more biglaw secure.

2. Employment stats obviously have a lot to do with the economy, which you can't always count on. The class of 2016 (the most recent employment data) did OCI in fall of 2014.
RParadela wrote: Do you really think that there's THAT much of a precipitous drop off between BigLaw and whatever options you have if you don't land BigLaw? Not speaking specifically for GW, but just generally
Generally yes. Look up the bimodal salary distribution.

Re: BC vs BU with NY Biglaw as an end goal

Posted: Fri Jun 23, 2017 5:28 pm
by cavalier1138
CoGar wrote:I really appreciate all the info and for putting me in my place - its good to know what I'm getting myself into and how I'm going to have to work my ass off to break in to the big leagues
As mentioned, hard work doesn't guarantee the grades you'll need to get biglaw from these schools. What will you do if you can't get biglaw?

Re: BC vs BU with NY Biglaw as an end goal

Posted: Fri Jun 23, 2017 5:29 pm
by Mullens
CoGar wrote:Assuming I'm offered around the same $ at each, which would you all think gives me the best chance to land NYC Biglaw gig? From everything I see they seems almost interchangeable, with some websites hyping up one or the other for whatever reason.

Fordham or GW are my first choices but BC and BU arent far behind - Thanks!
I'm gonna level with you here: failing to retake the LSAT would be the biggest financial mistake of your life. It sounds hyperbolic but hear me out.

Right now, you're likely looking at $150,000+ of debt for like a 33% chance of achieving your goal. That's not great.

If you retake and improve your score, either you're looking at a maximum of like $60,000 at the same schools or you could end up at a school with a 75% chance of achieving your goal and the same amount of debt.

Hell, you could end up with both. A much greater chance of biglaw and less debt. That's what happened to me. I had a 165 from my senior year of college and took two years off for work experience and to retake. I improved my score and just graduated debt-free from a T-14 thanks to scholarships and savings. I'm looking at a way different future than if I had applied and attended law school with a 165.

Re: BC vs BU with NY Biglaw as an end goal

Posted: Fri Jun 23, 2017 11:14 pm
by CoGar
cavalier1138 wrote:
CoGar wrote:I really appreciate all the info and for putting me in my place - its good to know what I'm getting myself into and how I'm going to have to work my ass off to break in to the big leagues
As mentioned, hard work doesn't guarantee the grades you'll need to get biglaw from these schools. What will you do if you can't get biglaw?
If I can't achieve biglaw I see a strong contingency being litigation at a midsized firm or even a crim law route. Still very much in the air

Re: BC vs BU with NY Biglaw as an end goal

Posted: Fri Jun 23, 2017 11:31 pm
by existentialcrisis
CoGar wrote:
cavalier1138 wrote:
CoGar wrote:I really appreciate all the info and for putting me in my place - its good to know what I'm getting myself into and how I'm going to have to work my ass off to break in to the big leagues
As mentioned, hard work doesn't guarantee the grades you'll need to get biglaw from these schools. What will you do if you can't get biglaw?
If I can't achieve biglaw I see a strong contingency being litigation at a midsized firm or even a crim law route. Still very much in the air
Mid-size firms basically either don't hire out of law school or are essentially just as competitive as biglaw.

Re: BC vs BU with NY Biglaw as an end goal

Posted: Fri Jun 23, 2017 11:33 pm
by UVA2B
CoGar wrote:
cavalier1138 wrote:
CoGar wrote:I really appreciate all the info and for putting me in my place - its good to know what I'm getting myself into and how I'm going to have to work my ass off to break in to the big leagues
As mentioned, hard work doesn't guarantee the grades you'll need to get biglaw from these schools. What will you do if you can't get biglaw?
If I can't achieve biglaw I see a strong contingency being litigation at a midsized firm or even a crim law route. Still very much in the air
What do you mean by strong contingency? And by crim law route, do you mean a public defender or an ADA in a lesser competitive district?

I mean this deferentially, but you seem to really believe good jobs are falling off of trees to anyone who is willing to do the work necessary in law school. That's just not how it works exactly. If you work hard, you might be in a position to get a desirable job, but this is an issue of necessary, not sufficient. Everyone will be working hard, and everyone will be of generally equal intelligence to you. So you should be assuming from the outset that you're not in any way special. So if you're an optimist, believe you have some shot of Biglaw but would be okay with $50k/year modest small law/government work. If you're a realist who understands the impact of six figure debt, assume you're more likely not going to get big money and might have to struggle to pay off the debt you're about to incur.

Seriously, confirmation bias is a thing you should worry about, and I mean that kindly. Things could work out for you. But there is a very real chance they won't. You should care way more about the not working out part than the optimistically working out part.