MistakenGenius wrote:
A lot can happen in 10 or 15 years. They might make 100k, or they might have left law. So I can't agree or disagree with you on that. I follow LST, so I absolutely agree with you that they have a +50% chance of making it out of Tulsa. They have a 58% chance of getting a legal job. That's another reason for the full ride. Even with my criteria (full ride, etc...), 42% of those students would leave Tulsa 50k in debt with nothing to show for it. Many others will be working those lower paying jobs we mentioned. That's why they need to go with as low a debt as possible and have realistic expectations.
Tulsa is such a small school. Just think, if just ten of your classmates at TU had <148 <3.0 gpa, would you be competing with these ten students? What if just five of your classmates went to law school because they wanted to impress their dad or ex girlfriend, but then realized that the law completely sucked and none of them even signed up for the bar exam. Would you be competing with these five students? What about the ones that actually sign up for the bar exam but because of a lack of motivation they don't study and fail? They have a zero percent chance of contributing to the employment score because they failed the bar… you competing with those kiddos too? Also, what about students that transfer out of TU because they had top grades, there goes four or five you aren't competing with.
Genius, if only some of this takes place, and I submit to you I'm only talking about real life taking place here, then your chances of employment at TU, by your own (LST) calculus, go from 58% to what? 80%? I mean, the class size is 80 something… so ten students who are objectively dumb, ten students who could give zero shits and have no plan, and three transfers gets you to -23 students.
That would really change the calculus, wouldn't it? ( To be completely fair, there would be some play in the other direction too. Students that are so well connected they could have a 148 LSAT and still get a job. However, I submit to you that those students, those who would otherwise be unqualified but found employment based on connections, would not come close to making up for all the students who transferred, didn't take bar, were dumb w/o connections, etc. )
My own school's LST number swung from 50% to 70% in one year. Did the school radically change in quality in one year, or did the individual make up of the student bodies from the class of 2012 to the class of 2013 have the variety you would expect from human beings living on planet earth?