Half AA Male Chance Me. 3.5 172.

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SamuelJ.H
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Half AA Male Chance Me. 3.5 172.

Postby SamuelJ.H » Sun Apr 30, 2017 11:40 am

Hey folks, details in the description - 3.48 LSAC GPA. 172 LSAT (not retaking, ever.)

Undergrad:
Top 30 based in california (UCI)

I'm interested in Columbia and up. My clear downfall is my low gpa...

i'd appreciate second, third, etc. opinions on chances. Brutal honesty is the best medicine for hubris.

Thanks!
Last edited by SamuelJ.H on Thu Jun 01, 2017 11:51 am, edited 1 time in total.

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BasilHallward
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Re: Half AA Male Chance Me. 3.5 172.

Postby BasilHallward » Sun Apr 30, 2017 12:26 pm

SamuelJ.H wrote:Hey folks, details in the description - 3.48 LSAC GPA. 172 LSAT (not retaking, ever.)
Upward trend in GPA. Two excellent letters of recommendation, one is by a professor who mentions, something to the effect of,
'one of the most intellectually minded students i've taught in 10 years as professor', 'top 1% class', 'well versed in U.S. political thought'.
I had one essay published with that same professor on an online journal.

Heritage:
Father is black, mother white. Well-to-do family.

Undergrad:
Top 30 based in california (UCI)

I'm interested in Columbia and up. My clear downfall is my low gpa...

i'd appreciate second, third, etc. opinions on chances. Brutal honesty is the best medicine for hubris.

Thanks!


Need to bring it down a few pegs for posterity's sake. As for your chances, you'll be fine. Harvard is a coin flip's chance, in my opinion.

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Platopus
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Re: Half AA Male Chance Me. 3.5 172.

Postby Platopus » Wed May 03, 2017 6:54 pm

GPA might hold you back from HYS, CCN seem like a decent shot.

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MrJD2020
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Re: Half AA Male Chance Me. 3.5 172.

Postby MrJD2020 » Thu May 04, 2017 12:36 pm

Enjoy Harvard, Stanford, Columbia with $$$ and Yale.

You'll get in everywhere. Seriously. You're done. 172 AA male? game set match have a nice life

seriously

you're in everywhere

this thread can now be locked, no need for further discussion

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MrJD2020
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Re: Half AA Male Chance Me. 3.5 172.

Postby MrJD2020 » Thu May 04, 2017 12:37 pm

Platopus wrote:GPA might hold you back from HYS, CCN seem like a decent shot.


lol.

wrong.

the number of AA males with 3.5+ and 170+ is like forty a year, if even that.

you'd have to really f**k up to not get into at least ONE of HYS, and CCN is basically 100% certain.

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Po$eidon
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Re: Half AA Male Chance Me. 3.5 172.

Postby Po$eidon » Thu May 04, 2017 12:44 pm

MrJD2020 wrote:
Platopus wrote:GPA might hold you back from HYS, CCN seem like a decent shot.


lol.

wrong.

the number of AA males with 3.5+ and 170+ is like forty a year, if even that.

you'd have to really f**k up to not get into at least ONE of HYS, and CCN is basically 100% certain.


I feel this is true. But I'd recommend OP apply below CCN too to maximize $$$ options (UVA, Penn, Duke etc will likely throw dollar signs)

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MrJD2020
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Re: Half AA Male Chance Me. 3.5 172.

Postby MrJD2020 » Thu May 04, 2017 12:47 pm

Po$eidon wrote:
MrJD2020 wrote:
Platopus wrote:GPA might hold you back from HYS, CCN seem like a decent shot.


lol.

wrong.

the number of AA males with 3.5+ and 170+ is like forty a year, if even that.

you'd have to really f**k up to not get into at least ONE of HYS, and CCN is basically 100% certain.


I feel this is true. But I'd recommend OP apply below CCN too to maximize $$$ options (UVA, Penn, Duke etc will likely throw dollar signs)


Yes. But don't go to UVA/Penn/Duke if you get into HYSColumbia -- go to HYSColumbia, and use Chi/N/UPDM scholarship offers to negotiate better money from HYSColumbia.

Why not Chicago? Too cold.

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Po$eidon
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Re: Half AA Male Chance Me. 3.5 172.

Postby Po$eidon » Thu May 04, 2017 1:04 pm

MrJD2020 wrote:
Po$eidon wrote:
MrJD2020 wrote:
Platopus wrote:GPA might hold you back from HYS, CCN seem like a decent shot.


lol.

wrong.

the number of AA males with 3.5+ and 170+ is like forty a year, if even that.

you'd have to really f**k up to not get into at least ONE of HYS, and CCN is basically 100% certain.


I feel this is true. But I'd recommend OP apply below CCN too to maximize $$$ options (UVA, Penn, Duke etc will likely throw dollar signs)


Yes. But don't go to UVA/Penn/Duke if you get into HYSColumbia -- go to HYSColumbia, and use Chi/N/UPDM scholarship offers to negotiate better money from HYSColumbia.

Why not Chicago? Too cold.


Chicago is amazing and if I didn't have personal reasons for not wanting to move that far away I'd have taken them last year. I'd actually totally recommend Chi too as they're loose with money and the ruby is drool worthy

Tangysalt
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Re: Half AA Male Chance Me. 3.5 172.

Postby Tangysalt » Thu May 04, 2017 3:41 pm

Why do you want to go to law school?

SamuelJ.H
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Re: Half AA Male Chance Me. 3.5 172.

Postby SamuelJ.H » Fri May 05, 2017 12:43 am

Thanks guys appreciate the feedback :)

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cdotson2
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Re: Half AA Male Chance Me. 3.5 172.

Postby cdotson2 » Fri May 05, 2017 1:16 am

MrJD2020 wrote:
lol.

wrong.

the number of AA males with 3.5+ and 170+ is like forty a year, if even that.

you'd have to really f**k up to not get into at least ONE of HYS, and CCN is basically 100% certain.


You should really calm down with advice like this. You've done it in at least two threads now, and it just isn't true. You are setting up people to be disappointed. OP should definitely apply everywhere, but as many others have said he/she ins't a lock for HYS. I also disagree with anyone ever having a 100% chance of admission when applying to any semi-competitive school, and much less when you are talking about some of the best law schools in the country like CCN. OP should be confident of getting a good result in the cycle he/she applies in. However, he/she still needs to make sure to send in a perfect app and not make a mistake that gives any school a reason to reject/wait-list them.

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luckyirish13
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Re: Half AA Male Chance Me. 3.5 172.

Postby luckyirish13 » Fri May 05, 2017 2:12 am

MrJD2020 wrote:Enjoy Harvard, Stanford, Columbia with $$$ and Yale.

You'll get in everywhere. Seriously. You're done. 172 AA male? game set match have a nice life

seriously

you're in everywhere

this thread can now be locked, no need for further discussion
where is your evidence for this? More worrisome is that your username tells us you're a 0L. You literally don't have a clue what you're talking about but you're telling the OP to get his hopes up about something that might not work out.

@OP, I don't know what your chances are, but based on numbers I've seen from MyLSN and from threads on this forum, I think you have a good shot. Like other commenters have said, apply to all of them, you'll presumably get into at least one or more, then negotiate for scholarship $$$. But make sure to apply to all of the t6, and maybe even the whole t14 to maximize your odds.

cheaptilts
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Re: Half AA Male Chance Me. 3.5 172.

Postby cheaptilts » Fri May 05, 2017 2:15 am

MrJD2020 wrote:
Platopus wrote:GPA might hold you back from HYS, CCN seem like a decent shot.


lol.

wrong.

the number of AA males with 3.5+ and 170+ is like forty a year, if even that.

you'd have to really f**k up to not get into at least ONE of HYS, and CCN is basically 100% certain.

You should stop posting

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MrJD2020
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Re: Half AA Male Chance Me. 3.5 172.

Postby MrJD2020 » Fri May 05, 2017 9:30 am

cdotson2 wrote:
MrJD2020 wrote:
lol.

wrong.

the number of AA males with 3.5+ and 170+ is like forty a year, if even that.

you'd have to really f**k up to not get into at least ONE of HYS, and CCN is basically 100% certain.


You should really calm down with advice like this. You've done it in at least two threads now, and it just isn't true. You are setting up people to be disappointed. OP should definitely apply everywhere, but as many others have said he/she ins't a lock for HYS. I also disagree with anyone ever having a 100% chance of admission when applying to any semi-competitive school, and much less when you are talking about some of the best law schools in the country like CCN. OP should be confident of getting a good result in the cycle he/she applies in. However, he/she still needs to make sure to send in a perfect app and not make a mistake that gives any school a reason to reject/wait-list them.


Obviously nobody has a 100% chance, but for Christ's sake, look at LSN, look at the extremely small number of AA males with 3.5+ and 170+ and tell me it isn't highly likely he'll get in. It is a FACT that the number people with his background and his scores is VERY TINY.

OF COURSE he should apply broadly. OF COURSE he should make all parts of his application as good as possible. I'm not setting him up to be disappointed. I'm telling him that his chances are very very good, because they are. Find me one person with his scores and background who applied to HYSCCN and failed to get into any of them, and I'll never post on TLS again. It's almost impossible to find someone with his profile who didn't get into at least one of HYS.

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MrJD2020
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Re: Half AA Male Chance Me. 3.5 172.

Postby MrJD2020 » Fri May 05, 2017 9:35 am

luckyirish13 wrote:
MrJD2020 wrote:Enjoy Harvard, Stanford, Columbia with $$$ and Yale.

You'll get in everywhere. Seriously. You're done. 172 AA male? game set match have a nice life

seriously

you're in everywhere

this thread can now be locked, no need for further discussion
where is your evidence for this? More worrisome is that your username tells us you're a 0L. You literally don't have a clue what you're talking about but you're telling the OP to get his hopes up about something that might not work out.

@OP, I don't know what your chances are, but based on numbers I've seen from MyLSN and from threads on this forum, I think you have a good shot. Like other commenters have said, apply to all of them, you'll presumably get into at least one or more, then negotiate for scholarship $$$. But make sure to apply to all of the t6, and maybe even the whole t14 to maximize your odds.


Perhaps I shouldn't have said "everywhere" -- maybe he won't get into ONE of H/Y/S/C (Y is least likely but still a good shot), and he's in at Columbia and Harvard if he doesn't mess up elsewhere or have some really weird situation he hasn't mentioned.

Being an 0L doesn't mean I have no clue. Look at all of the data on the number of AA males with his scores and look at their cycles. Nothing is life is guaranteed, but getting into T3 (and certainly T6) with his background and scores is pretty damn close. He should now focus on his essays, resume and recommendations and submit as soon as he can in the fall.

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MrJD2020
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Re: Half AA Male Chance Me. 3.5 172.

Postby MrJD2020 » Fri May 05, 2017 9:38 am

OP: Look at this thread if you haven't. Really read the first post. REALLY read it. Over and over again. Key points:

Alright, so onto some conclusions:

1. A 159 should, in theory, put you approximately near the top 360 or so among black test takers (about 2 full Standard Deviations above the mean), and a 160 should put you more comfortably and confidently within that range. The T-14 will accept approximately 331 AA’s in a given year, so you’ll contend with these scores, maybe some money. If the “next three” (Vandy, UCLA, UT-Austin) are also on your list, you should be in an even better shot at getting an acceptance. Overall, this isn’t a bad place to be. If you’re an AA law school hopeful who wants a T-14, I’d recommend a 160 as the minimum standard to shoot for assuming an average (or better) GPA.

2. A 164 will put you 2.5 SDs above the mean, a level that only approximately 90 AA’s should reach annually (88 or so did this in 2009-10), assuming a normally distributed sample. You should be very well placed for a shot at the top 14 with a score like this. A glance at my enrollment numbers above will also show that the holy trinity at the top (HYS) accepted 81 black applicants most recently. This indicates that a 164 may (depending on your GPA) give you an outside shot at contending for HYS, and should certainly put you in T6 contention.

Going further, I do not have exact approximations for where scores in between 2 and 2.5SDs (161-163) would put you, but it could probably be safely inferred that there aren’t many more than 130-160 AA’s at or above 162/163. A 163 might make shooting for HYS less realistic barring an above average GPA, but it should give you a shot at a T6 and should certainly set you up for a T-14 acceptance somewhere (perhaps with some good money). A 165/166 should place you firmly in HYS contention, again depending on where the GPA is.

3. A 168 will put you 3SDs above the mean, a level that less than 20 AA test takers (around 1-1000, to be more precise-only 15 or so likely pulled this off in 2009-10) will reach annually in a normally distributed sample. HYS is probably a given here barring a very poor GPA, and one should probably expect plenty of money.


viewtopic.php?f=14&t=195443

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cdotson2
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Re: Half AA Male Chance Me. 3.5 172.

Postby cdotson2 » Fri May 05, 2017 11:21 am

MrJD2020 wrote:
Obviously nobody has a 100% chance, but for Christ's sake, look at LSN, look at the extremely small number of AA males with 3.5+ and 170+ and tell me it isn't highly likely he'll get in. It is a FACT that the number people with his background and his scores is VERY TINY.

OF COURSE he should apply broadly. OF COURSE he should make all parts of his application as good as possible. I'm not setting him up to be disappointed. I'm telling him that his chances are very very good, because they are. Find me one person with his scores and background who applied to HYSCCN and failed to get into any of them, and I'll never post on TLS again. It's almost impossible to find someone with his profile who didn't get into at least one of HYS.


The bolded part of your statement is just patently false.

http://lawschoolnumbers.com/jnwa, AA male 3.3 173, rejected at yale, Harvard, Berkley, Stanford, waitlisted at Chicago and UVA. But was accepted at Columbia and NYU. so you squeaked by on this one.

http://lawschoolnumbers.com/DontStandInMyLight it isnt clear that this is an AA aplicant, but it is marked URM. Rejected yale, harvard, waitlisted stanford, NYU, chicago, and only got into Columbia of the T6. you still barely squeaked by.

Third strike and your out. http://lawschoolnumbers.com/logicspeaks. 171, 3.45 GPA AA applicant. Waitlisted at NYU, Harvard, Columbia, Michigan, Penn, and UCLA. Please never post on TLS again.

check out this graph. While yes there is a 75% chance of getting into NYU and close to 50% chance at Columbia above that the chances are abysmal. 0 at yale less than 10% at stanford, and less than 20% at H and less than 30% at Chicago. So do you see why your advice is bad now?

Image

Harvard is also known for having a soft floor for URM GPA's that is above a 3.5.

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MrJD2020
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Re: Half AA Male Chance Me. 3.5 172.

Postby MrJD2020 » Fri May 05, 2017 11:46 am

cdotson2 wrote:
MrJD2020 wrote:
Obviously nobody has a 100% chance, but for Christ's sake, look at LSN, look at the extremely small number of AA males with 3.5+ and 170+ and tell me it isn't highly likely he'll get in. It is a FACT that the number people with his background and his scores is VERY TINY.

OF COURSE he should apply broadly. OF COURSE he should make all parts of his application as good as possible. I'm not setting him up to be disappointed. I'm telling him that his chances are very very good, because they are. Find me one person with his scores and background who applied to HYSCCN and failed to get into any of them, and I'll never post on TLS again. It's almost impossible to find someone with his profile who didn't get into at least one of HYS.


The bolded part of your statement is just patently false.

http://lawschoolnumbers.com/jnwa, AA male 3.3 173, rejected at yale, Harvard, Berkley, Stanford, waitlisted at Chicago and UVA. But was accepted at Columbia and NYU. so you squeaked by on this one.

http://lawschoolnumbers.com/DontStandInMyLight it isnt clear that this is an AA aplicant, but it is marked URM. Rejected yale, harvard, waitlisted stanford, NYU, chicago, and only got into Columbia of the T6. you still barely squeaked by.

Third strike and your out. http://lawschoolnumbers.com/logicspeaks. 171, 3.45 GPA AA applicant. Waitlisted at NYU, Harvard, Columbia, Michigan, Penn, and UCLA. Please never post on TLS again.

check out this graph. While yes there is a 75% chance of getting into NYU and close to 50% chance at Columbia above that the chances are abysmal. 0 at yale less than 10% at stanford, and less than 20% at H and less than 30% at Chicago. So do you see why your advice is bad now?

Image

Harvard is also known for having a soft floor for URM GPA's that is above a 3.5.



All right, all right, all right. Let's just agree that his chances are quite good, and he should feel quite good going into his cycle. You didn't really find anyone who claimed to be an AA male who attested that they got *rejected* (we don't necessarily know outcomes of waitlisted folks, they could have withdrawn, depriving themselves of an acceptance, or may not have updated after getting in off the waitlist) from HYSCCN with 170+, 3.5+. But I feel no need to continue fighting with you. I've said my peace on this.

OP: I mostly stand by what I said. Your chances are really good. Work on your essays a lot, apply EARLY, and good luck!
Last edited by MrJD2020 on Fri May 05, 2017 1:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.

guyindfw
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Re: Half AA Male Chance Me. 3.5 172.

Postby guyindfw » Fri May 05, 2017 12:07 pm

Good luck.

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UVA2B
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Re: Half AA Male Chance Me. 3.5 172.

Postby UVA2B » Fri May 05, 2017 12:16 pm

guyindfw wrote:Good luck.


This is a really weird shtick. Artificially inflating post count, or genuinely want to wish everyone well?

guyindfw
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Re: Half AA Male Chance Me. 3.5 172.

Postby guyindfw » Fri May 05, 2017 12:29 pm

UVA2B wrote:
guyindfw wrote:Good luck.


This is a really weird shtick. Artificially inflating post count, or genuinely want to wish everyone well?


insightful comment there! May God bless you.

http://greatergood.berkeley.edu/raising_happiness/post/better_than_sex_and_appropriate_for_kids
Last edited by guyindfw on Fri May 05, 2017 12:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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luckyirish13
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Re: Half AA Male Chance Me. 3.5 172.

Postby luckyirish13 » Fri May 05, 2017 12:31 pm

guyindfw wrote:
UVA2B wrote:
guyindfw wrote:Good luck.


This is a really weird shtick. Artificially inflating post count, or genuinely want to wish everyone well?


insightful comment there! May God bless you.
troll

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jjcorvino
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Re: Half AA Male Chance Me. 3.5 172.

Postby jjcorvino » Tue May 09, 2017 10:07 am

cdotson2 wrote:
MrJD2020 wrote:
Obviously nobody has a 100% chance, but for Christ's sake, look at LSN, look at the extremely small number of AA males with 3.5+ and 170+ and tell me it isn't highly likely he'll get in. It is a FACT that the number people with his background and his scores is VERY TINY.

OF COURSE he should apply broadly. OF COURSE he should make all parts of his application as good as possible. I'm not setting him up to be disappointed. I'm telling him that his chances are very very good, because they are. Find me one person with his scores and background who applied to HYSCCN and failed to get into any of them, and I'll never post on TLS again. It's almost impossible to find someone with his profile who didn't get into at least one of HYS.


The bolded part of your statement is just patently false.

http://lawschoolnumbers.com/jnwa, AA male 3.3 173, rejected at yale, Harvard, Berkley, Stanford, waitlisted at Chicago and UVA. But was accepted at Columbia and NYU. so you squeaked by on this one.

http://lawschoolnumbers.com/DontStandInMyLight it isnt clear that this is an AA aplicant, but it is marked URM. Rejected yale, harvard, waitlisted stanford, NYU, chicago, and only got into Columbia of the T6. you still barely squeaked by.

Third strike and your out. http://lawschoolnumbers.com/logicspeaks. 171, 3.45 GPA AA applicant. Waitlisted at NYU, Harvard, Columbia, Michigan, Penn, and UCLA. Please never post on TLS again.

check out this graph. While yes there is a 75% chance of getting into NYU and close to 50% chance at Columbia above that the chances are abysmal. 0 at yale less than 10% at stanford, and less than 20% at H and less than 30% at Chicago. So do you see why your advice is bad now?

Image

Harvard is also known for having a soft floor for URM GPA's that is above a 3.5.


I find that last part hard to believe about the GPA floor. Look at this graph of only URM applicants to Harvard over the last two years. There are two admits below 3.5

http://harvard.lawschoolnumbers.com/stats/1617

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cdotson2
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Re: Half AA Male Chance Me. 3.5 172.

Postby cdotson2 » Tue May 09, 2017 10:52 am

jjcorvino wrote:
I find that last part hard to believe about the GPA floor. Look at this graph of only URM applicants to Harvard over the last two years. There are two admits below 3.5

http://harvard.lawschoolnumbers.com/stats/1617


That is why it is known as a soft floor. They will go below it for exceptional candidates, but usually they don't.




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