sublime wrote:I may have misinterpreted, but it sounded like playing the average game is applying to a bunch of schools where you don't have a good chance of either being accepted at, or being accepted at a reasonable cost, and hoping that by the virtue of averages, or luck, or something I don't understand, you will randomly get an unlikely result somewhere.
Rolls of dice are independent.
Well, it's not completely crazy. If you have a 10% shot at each of two schools, and your chances are independent, you have a 19% chance of getting into at least one of them.
What's actually going on is that law school admissions aren't
independent, assuming you're getting your chances off of myLSN. They aren't weighted die rolls based on your numbers, they're also affected by softs, etc. And softs that will let you get into one school that you have a 10% chance at are also softs that will let you get into another school that you have a 10% shot at.
So, I'd guess that if myLSN gives you a 10% shot at two schools, you probably have something like a 13% shot at getting into at least one of them, and the returns to applying to a bunch more are rapidly diminishing.