URM Splitter Chances at HYS?

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lnicole13
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URM Splitter Chances at HYS?

Postby lnicole13 » Fri Aug 23, 2013 3:56 am

Hey guys, new here and I'd really appreciate any feedback on my chances at HYS and Berkeley

3.39 GPA at top 25 school
URM (Mexican American)
LSAT: 175 (retaking in October on the chance I can add a couple points)
Decent softs, nothing outstanding. I had to work full time all four years so I didn't have a lot of extra time
Good LORs, but probably not "best student I've encountered" material
Excellent personal statement (I've been told)

SLS and Berkeley are the dreams, but I'm worried my GPA is going to knock me out of the running. Is it even worth applying? If not, any suggestions as to the range I should be looking at as far as reaches go? Obviously I'll apply to safeties but I'd like to add a few reaches without wasting time/energy on schools I have no shot at. Thanks!
Last edited by lnicole13 on Fri Aug 23, 2013 4:08 am, edited 1 time in total.

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bizzybone1313
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Re: URM Splitter Chances at HYS?

Postby bizzybone1313 » Fri Aug 23, 2013 4:04 am

Good luck.

Redfactor
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Re: URM Splitter Chances at HYS?

Postby Redfactor » Fri Aug 23, 2013 4:07 am

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Last edited by Redfactor on Wed Aug 28, 2013 1:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Clearly
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Re: URM Splitter Chances at HYS?

Postby Clearly » Fri Aug 23, 2013 4:20 am

DO NOT RETAKE.

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pupshaw
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Re: URM Splitter Chances at HYS?

Postby pupshaw » Fri Aug 23, 2013 9:26 am

I'm not as well-versed in URM admissions as others on this board, but I would think you would have at least a pretty good shot at HYS, and I'd be pretty surprised if you don't get at least one of HYS + B.

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Cicero76
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Re: URM Splitter Chances at HYS?

Postby Cicero76 » Fri Aug 23, 2013 12:57 pm

As a non-African American URM, that GPA is too low for YS. It may be too low for harvard, but it's worth a shot.

You'd also be absolutely insane to retake.

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ArtistOfManliness
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Re: URM Splitter Chances at HYS?

Postby ArtistOfManliness » Fri Aug 23, 2013 12:58 pm

Cicero76 wrote:As a non-African American URM, that GPA is too low for YS. It may be too low for harvard, but it's worth a shot.

You'd also be absolutely insane to retake.

UnderrateOverachieve
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Re: URM Splitter Chances at HYS?

Postby UnderrateOverachieve » Fri Aug 23, 2013 1:19 pm

Whenever this topic comes up it is inevitably pointed out that there is just insufficient MA data points. Just apply broadly and have fun.

062914123
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Re: URM Splitter Chances at HYS?

Postby 062914123 » Fri Aug 23, 2013 1:23 pm

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Last edited by 062914123 on Mon Jun 30, 2014 3:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Ti Malice
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Re: URM Splitter Chances at HYS?

Postby Ti Malice » Fri Aug 23, 2013 2:09 pm

Redfactor wrote:I bet nobody posts a 75% mark of 176. Just too few test takers.


Yale will, but her GPA almost certainly knocks her out of contention there anyway.

OP, you should apply everywhere -- even Yale and Stanford. You will be a long-shot there because of your GPA, but it's still worth applying. You quite likely have either the best or second-best LSAT score among MA applicants this year. You should have a pretty good shot at Harvard and a very strong shot almost everywhere else (maybe not Berkeley because of the GPA). But your numbers are good enough that you should blanket the T14.

Oh, and there's no point in retaking.

aboutmydaylight wrote:If anyone's curious, for MA's the numbers are as follows:

Mean: 147.79
SD: 8.82
Number = 1853

Mean + 1SD = 156.61 (294-295)
Mean + 1.5SD = 161.02 (124-125)
Mean + 2SD = 165.43 (42-43)
Mean + 2.5SD = 169.84 (11-12)
Mean + 3SD = 174.25 (1-2)

Numbers are smaller because there's less MA's than AA's that apply. All approximations of course. I don't have the data on how many MA enroll/are accepted to the T-14 but iirc about 30 MA's enroll in HYS annually. Assuming everything's correct, that would correspond to an LSAT of 166-167 to be among the top 30 MA's that took the test. I have a (perhaps unfounded) presumption that MA's don't get even close to the pass that AA's get when it comes to GPA though. You'd probably still have to near 3.7 to be competitive with the lower end of those scores.

Redfactor
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Re: URM Splitter Chances at HYS?

Postby Redfactor » Fri Aug 23, 2013 3:48 pm

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Last edited by Redfactor on Wed Aug 28, 2013 1:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.

lnicole13
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Re: URM Splitter Chances at HYS?

Postby lnicole13 » Fri Aug 23, 2013 6:34 pm

Thanks for the responses guys! And the honesty. Just so I'm clear about what you're saying...once you get a score past the school's 75% mark, it doesn't matter what it is? I.e, if the school has a 75% mark of 175, the difference between 175 and 180 is trivial?

The only reason I'm considering retaking is because, judging from practice tests, I definitely have the potential to score 179/180. I was a little off my game on the first one, so I think the worst I could do is score similarly, which would make it a wash?

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t-14orbust
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Re: URM Splitter Chances at HYS?

Postby t-14orbust » Fri Aug 23, 2013 7:01 pm

lnicole13 wrote:Thanks for the responses guys! And the honesty. Just so I'm clear about what you're saying...once you get a score past the school's 75% mark, it doesn't matter what it is? I.e, if the school has a 75% mark of 175, the difference between 175 and 180 is trivial?

The only reason I'm considering retaking is because, judging from practice tests, I definitely have the potential to score 179/180. I was a little off my game on the first one, so I think the worst I could do is score similarly, which would make it a wash?


Don't retake, it's just not worth it. Your chances would increase marginally at best, if at all. Also, as you probably know, there is a significant amount of luck involved when it comes to scoring in the high 99th%. Here's an example:

http://www.testmasters.net/Lsat/Perfection

Don't be that 173/174 lol. Besides, there are plenty of better uses of your time.

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twenty
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Re: URM Splitter Chances at HYS?

Postby twenty » Fri Aug 23, 2013 10:05 pm

Grats on being one of two of the highest scoring Mexican Americans in the country.

You're probably not getting H/S, but they're definitely both worth the app fee.

Ti Malice
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Re: URM Splitter Chances at HYS?

Postby Ti Malice » Fri Aug 23, 2013 11:30 pm

Redfactor wrote:
Ti Malice wrote:
Redfactor wrote:I bet nobody posts a 75% mark of 176. Just too few test takers.


Yale will, but her GPA almost certainly knocks her out of contention there anyway.


I figure with the dearth of high scorers matriculating, I wouldn't be surprised if even Yale drops their 75% to 175. Maybe you know something I don't?

Either way, OP is in an excellent position to have solid options from multiple T14s.


It could happen, but it wouldn't be because Yale could not have prevented it from happening. If Yale wants to maintain their 176, they will do so without breaking a sweat. Someone here recently did a nice statistical analysis showing that YLS could very easily have a 175 median even in the current environment if they were to switch to a more numbers-oriented admissions process. You would sort of suspect that anyway, given Yale's yield and the proportion of people above both medians that they reject.

twentypercentmore wrote:You're probably not getting H/S, but they're definitely both worth the app fee.


You mean Y/S, right?

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twenty
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Re: URM Splitter Chances at HYS?

Postby twenty » Sat Aug 24, 2013 12:25 am

Ti Malice wrote:
twentypercentmore wrote:You're probably not getting H/S, but they're definitely both worth the app fee.


You mean Y/S, right?


Nope, pretty sure I mean H/S.

OP wouldn't even be a "lock" as an AA with better numbers.

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ManoftheHour
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Re: URM Splitter Chances at HYS?

Postby ManoftheHour » Sat Aug 24, 2013 12:51 am

bee wrote:
Clearly wrote:DO NOT RETAKE.

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ManoftheHour
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Re: URM Splitter Chances at HYS?

Postby ManoftheHour » Sat Aug 24, 2013 12:52 am

Clearly wrote:DO NOT RETAKE.

Wow. One of the rare cases in which TCR runs counter to what your avatar says.

Ti Malice
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Re: URM Splitter Chances at HYS?

Postby Ti Malice » Sat Aug 24, 2013 12:59 am

twentypercentmore wrote:
Ti Malice wrote:
twentypercentmore wrote:You're probably not getting H/S, but they're definitely both worth the app fee.


You mean Y/S, right?


Nope, pretty sure I mean H/S.

OP wouldn't even be a "lock" as an AA with better numbers.


I figured you were mentioning the schools you considered the least likely to admit her, but perhaps you don't think Yale is even worth the app fee.

In any case, I would never say that Harvard is a lock, but her odds should be quite a bit better than what that limited data indicates. In the first place, winding up on a WL as active as Harvard's as a Mexican-American with those numbers is not the worst place to be. More important, with HLS's GPA floor continuing to drop each year, her GPA will look much closer to next year's lowest-GPA non-URM admits than to those from two, three, and four years ago.




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