2.97, 173, non URM - ED penn?

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jimmwaller
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2.97, 173, non URM - ED penn?

Postby jimmwaller » Sat Aug 10, 2013 3:41 pm

I'm a 2.97, 2 years out of undergrad, large state school.

Took lsat 3 times, highest was a 173.

Not a urm. Not at all :)

would love, love, love penn. Have family in philly so it would greatly mitigate my COL going there as opposed to anywhere else.

what are my chances early decision? Is there anything I can do that will increase my chances specifically for penn?

Thanks y'all

Ti Malice
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Re: 2.97, 173, non URM - ED penn?

Postby Ti Malice » Sat Aug 10, 2013 5:04 pm

Your odds aren't good with a GPA that low. There aren't many data points for people with your numbers, so the search parameters used to generate the results below are a little overbroad, but it's safe to say that Penn isn't very friendly to sub-3.0 GPAs:

Image

The one bit of good news for you is that one of the two people making up the WL data just got accepted a few hours ago. With an applicant pool contracting even further next year, perhaps Penn will decide to relax its GPA standards to maintain its 170 median.

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Monochromatic Oeuvre
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Re: 2.97, 173, non URM - ED penn?

Postby Monochromatic Oeuvre » Sat Aug 10, 2013 5:20 pm

It is almost unheard of for Penn to go below 3.1, with the exception of this guy, which should give you some comfort because he's pretty close to your numbers and was accepted ED this cycle. That said, it's hard for median manipulators to give up a guaranteed 171+ sticker payer. UVA is slightly more known for accepting an applicant of your type, but that doesn't necessarily mean Penn will.

ED to Penn come September 1; if you don't get in, ED to UVA.

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Tiago Splitter
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Re: 2.97, 173, non URM - ED penn?

Postby Tiago Splitter » Sat Aug 10, 2013 5:26 pm

Penn ED definitely seems like the right play here.

jimmwaller
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Re: 2.97, 173, non URM - ED penn?

Postby jimmwaller » Sat Aug 10, 2013 6:00 pm

Thanks for all the info, responses, and advice.

I'm definitely aware that I'm well under the numbers a typical 'penn' applicant, and below what they would have even ever considered a few years ago. I'm hoping that the contracting applicant pool will help me out, but I'm still not thinking I have a great shot. Penn is my dream school, so I'm willing to ED there and pay sticker if I think I have a shot.

The ONLY thing standing in my way is... pragmatism. Drat. I feel like I have a decent (low... but decent) shot at some of the lower t-14 (GULC, NU, etc), but I feel like I'm pretty much entirely locked out of the middle t-14 UNLESS the smaller pool of 170+ers and an ED app might give me a slight edge. So, I want to use my ED wisely. It's true that UVA gives me a better shot, but i really, really want penn.
Best case scenario? ED penn and get in.
Middle scenario? ED penn, get rejected, and then ED UVA and get in.
Worst case? ED penn, get rejected, and then ED uVA but get rejected BECAUSE by the time I hear back from penn my application will be (perhaps) months later than many others. I feel like I need to apply as early as possible, so I'm kind of hoping to choose a good balance between EDing to my reach school and EDing to a school where I have a shot so I'm not stuck scrambling for last minute ED apps. I feel like, if you're EDing anywhere in december, they KNOW you got rejected from your first choice of school :(


IS this accurate? Given this, is still EDing penn the right play? do I have enough of a shot that it makes it worthwhile?

Or do schools not look down too far on late-ish ED apps?

thanks again!!

Ti Malice
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Re: 2.97, 173, non URM - ED penn?

Postby Ti Malice » Sat Aug 10, 2013 6:32 pm

An ED app to Penn seems like the right first move to me.

Are you open to attending Northwestern? One thing important to understand is that, with the exceptions of Penn and GULC, the order of the lower T14 (which means the non-YHSCCN T14) in the USNWR rankings doesn't mean anything at all. Northwestern has a higher average BigLaw+FedClerk percentage for the last two years than UVA. Duke, Northwestern, and Cornell all have significantly better placement than Michigan recently.

So ED first to Penn and send a regular app to NU. (ED at NU isn't for you anyway; because it comes with an automatic full ride, it's meant to target CCN admits.) If you don't get into Penn by ED, decide if you like UVA enough to apply ED.

jimmwaller
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Re: 2.97, 173, non URM - ED penn?

Postby jimmwaller » Sat Aug 10, 2013 6:43 pm

Thanks everyone.

Just out of curiosity, anyone want to play devil's advocate? Tell me why an ED app to penn will completely backfire and ruin my life?

thanks again

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Monochromatic Oeuvre
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Re: 2.97, 173, non URM - ED penn?

Postby Monochromatic Oeuvre » Sat Aug 10, 2013 7:24 pm

jimmwaller wrote:Thanks everyone.

Just out of curiosity, anyone want to play devil's advocate? Tell me why an ED app to penn will completely backfire and ruin my life?

thanks again


Worst case scenario is you ED to Penn and it takes so long for them to get back to you that you can't ED to UVA, at which point you wind up at NU sticker.

To avoid that, ED on September 1.

jimmwaller
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Re: 2.97, 173, non URM - ED penn?

Postby jimmwaller » Sat Aug 10, 2013 7:42 pm

Thanks monochromatic

What's the typical penn ED turnaround time for those applying on sept. 1st? ballpark, of course.

Days? Weeks? months?

thanks!

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Nickg415
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Re: 2.97, 173, non URM - ED penn?

Postby Nickg415 » Sat Aug 10, 2013 8:11 pm

Had the same dilemma this last cycle by the time penn gets back to you UVA will have already made most of their Ed decisions. The fact of the matter is you have a better chance at UVA but I don't think penn is a no chance. I was 170/3.2 and was accepted near the end of nov. if you are heavily sold on penn write a solid why penn essay, polish you PS to perfection and send the Ed app in the second they accept them. Absolute worst case scenario is you wait another cycle and apply UVA.

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Motivator9
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Re: 2.97, 173, non URM - ED penn?

Postby Motivator9 » Sat Aug 10, 2013 10:33 pm

If I were a betting man, Id say your in off the late WL. Schools are going to be reaching next year.

jimmwaller
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Re: 2.97, 173, non URM - ED penn?

Postby jimmwaller » Sun Aug 11, 2013 12:18 pm

So, I've been reading bunch of penn threads, admissions blogs, etc.

Seems like ElTerrible78, the person behind admissionsbythenumbers (the law school stats analysis blog, really awesome site) has mentioned a few times that ed-ing to penn offers no statistical boost for splitters.
Any thoughts on this? I'm going to PM him/her right now, maybe I can get him/her to chime in here but I'm wondering if this changes the equation in anyone's eyes. I mean, it should offer a boost, right, because all else being equal (and it IS exactly equal if we're talking about the exact same applicant applying ED vs RD) they must prefer the applicant that they a) know will matriculate, and b) don't necessarily have to woo or offer financial aid to.

thoughts? advice? thanks!!

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elterrible78
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Re: 2.97, 173, non URM - ED penn?

Postby elterrible78 » Sun Aug 11, 2013 12:35 pm

jimmwaller wrote:So, I've been reading bunch of penn threads, admissions blogs, etc.

Seems like ElTerrible78, the person behind admissionsbythenumbers (the law school stats analysis blog, really awesome site) has mentioned a few times that ed-ing to penn offers no statistical boost for splitters.
Any thoughts on this? I'm going to PM him/her right now, maybe I can get him/her to chime in here but I'm wondering if this changes the equation in anyone's eyes. I mean, it should offer a boost, right, because all else being equal (and it IS exactly equal if we're talking about the exact same applicant applying ED vs RD) they must prefer the applicant that they a) know will matriculate, and b) don't necessarily have to woo or offer financial aid to.

thoughts? advice? thanks!!


Hey there. The idea that it "should" offer a boost is a world apart from the idea that it "does" offer a boost, which is precisely why I started that site...to look statistically at the stuff that often gets tossed around here as if it were the gospel truth, and is often subsequently treated as the gospel truth.

When you run the numbers on the entire applicant pool, EDing to Penn just does not provide any benefit for splitters, whether it theoretically should or not. In your specific case, 67 people on LSN have applied RD with both numbers at or below yours, and 5 were accepted. 3 people have applied ED with both numbers at or below yours, and 0 were accepted.

With that said, as long as you're willing to pay sticker and your heart is set on Penn, it can't HURT to apply ED, it probably just won't help. It'll at least get you a decision back early enough to go ahead and throw that ED application to UVA (where ED actually DOES mean something), whereas if you apply RD to Penn and then end up waiting around forever (as I did), you might either shut yourself out of the ED advantage at UVA, or apply ED to UVA, get accepted, and then get locked in there while waiting for a decision for Penn.

TL;DR version: There's no harm in applying ED to Penn, just don't expect it to help. And as part of your overall strategy, it may make perfect sense.

EDIT: Made sure I was specifically saying that there seems to be no ED advantage for splitters...this is not true of the overall candidate pool. Regular, garden variety applicants (neither splitters or non-splitters) do seem to enjoy a significant benefit from EDing.
Last edited by elterrible78 on Sun Aug 11, 2013 4:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Nickg415
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Re: 2.97, 173, non URM - ED penn?

Postby Nickg415 » Sun Aug 11, 2013 12:53 pm

elterrible78 wrote: 3 people have applied ED with both numbers at or below yours, and 0 were accepted.

With that said, as long as you're willing to pay sticker and your heart is set on Penn, it can't HURT to apply ED, it probably just won't help. It'll at least get you a decision back early enough to go ahead and throw that ED application to UVA (where ED actually DOES mean something), whereas if you apply RD to Penn and then end up waiting around forever (as I did), you might either shut yourself out of the ED advantage at UVA, or apply ED to UVA, get accepted, and then get locked in there while waiting for a decision for Penn.

TL;DR version: There's no harm in applying ED to Penn, just don't expect it to help. And as part of your overall strategy, it may make perfect sense.


3 people is hardly statistically significant. I do agree that people mistakenly view ED as a magic fix for low numbers but at the same time I believe it does provide a slight boost. If for nothing else it serves as a signaling device that would distinguish you from applicants with similar #s.

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elterrible78
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Re: 2.97, 173, non URM - ED penn?

Postby elterrible78 » Sun Aug 11, 2013 1:13 pm

Nickg415 wrote:
elterrible78 wrote: 3 people have applied ED with both numbers at or below yours, and 0 were accepted.

With that said, as long as you're willing to pay sticker and your heart is set on Penn, it can't HURT to apply ED, it probably just won't help. It'll at least get you a decision back early enough to go ahead and throw that ED application to UVA (where ED actually DOES mean something), whereas if you apply RD to Penn and then end up waiting around forever (as I did), you might either shut yourself out of the ED advantage at UVA, or apply ED to UVA, get accepted, and then get locked in there while waiting for a decision for Penn.

TL;DR version: There's no harm in applying ED to Penn, just don't expect it to help. And as part of your overall strategy, it may make perfect sense.


3 people is hardly statistically significant. I do agree that people mistakenly view ED as a magic fix for low numbers but at the same time I believe it does provide a slight boost. If for nothing else it serves as a signaling device that would distinguish you from applicants with similar #s.


I'm well aware that three people is hardly statistically significant. My actual models that demonstrate that there is no advantage to EDing Penn use thousands of observations. I was just giving the OP the raw numbers that correspond to his situation.

I guess as long as you believe ED provides an advantage, though, it must be true. ;-)

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Tiago Splitter
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Re: 2.97, 173, non URM - ED penn?

Postby Tiago Splitter » Sun Aug 11, 2013 1:33 pm

Does applying ED to Penn help someone avoid YP? Or is that only at UVA? I know OP's numbers make Penn unlikely regardless, but I've always assumed someone with like a 3.5/175 was a sure WL at Penn but had a decent chance of acceptance through ED.

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WokeUpInACar
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Re: 2.97, 173, non URM - ED penn?

Postby WokeUpInACar » Sun Aug 11, 2013 1:43 pm

If you only look at last cycle, EDing Penn was definitely a boost for splitters. Now it could be an aberration, but it also could be a reflection of declining apps and hold true next cycle as well.

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Monochromatic Oeuvre
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Re: 2.97, 173, non URM - ED penn?

Postby Monochromatic Oeuvre » Sun Aug 11, 2013 2:16 pm

elterrible78 wrote:I'm well aware that three people is hardly statistically significant. My actual models that demonstrate that there is no advantage to EDing Penn use thousands of observations. I was just giving the OP the raw numbers that correspond to his situation.

I guess as long as you believe ED provides an advantage, though, it must be true. ;-)


I'm not suggesting the advantage to Penn ED is substantial (I think it's likely that there's not enough evidence to make strong claims either way), but I think the suggestion that it is demonstrable that there is no advantage to ED at Penn is not supported by the data.

Image

compared with

Image

and

Image

compared with

Image

Usual caveats apply, but I think the idea that Penn ED improves a marginal applicant's chances was not pulled out of thin air.

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Nickg415
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Re: 2.97, 173, non URM - ED penn?

Postby Nickg415 » Sun Aug 11, 2013 2:47 pm

elterrible78 wrote:
I guess as long as you believe ED provides an advantage, though, it must be true. ;-)


hahaha wouldn't that be nice if everything we believe in were true? If that were the case then the results of your model would be more than a belief as well ;)

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Nickg415
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Re: 2.97, 173, non URM - ED penn?

Postby Nickg415 » Sun Aug 11, 2013 2:58 pm

OP here is someone with your numbers from last cycle. Its anecdotal but shows that you can definitely get it. She had work experience but she also applied near the end of the cycle (non ED) and it led to a WL/accept: http://lawschoolnumbers.com/rgsm1987

jimmwaller
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Re: 2.97, 173, non URM - ED penn?

Postby jimmwaller » Sun Aug 11, 2013 3:11 pm

Yeah, I think that's the one who got in "a few hours ago" that was mentioned.

Definitely gives me hope, but when you have like 1-2 data points, you start going, "well... they might have had incredible softs or huge ties to the area/school or a really great GPA addendum or something"

I mean, it might be worth an ED app just so I can hear back sooner rather than later, unless they bump me.

Darn those LSAC gpa calculations :) if they only just didn't count retaken classes...

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elterrible78
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Re: 2.97, 173, non URM - ED penn?

Postby elterrible78 » Sun Aug 11, 2013 3:28 pm

Nickg415 wrote:
elterrible78 wrote:
I guess as long as you believe ED provides an advantage, though, it must be true. ;-)


hahaha wouldn't that be nice if everything we believe in were true? If that were the case then the results of your model would be more than a belief as well ;)


Well, in a very Cartesian sense, I guess we know very little. But in practical terms, I'll take results backed with hard numbers all day, every day over results based on "this theoretically makes sense."

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Re: 2.97, 173, non URM - ED penn?

Postby NYstate » Sun Aug 11, 2013 3:30 pm

Why are you sure you want Penn? You will be giving up your chance to see where else you get in and what scholarships you might get.

Just tuition and fees will be about $55,000 next year. Even if you pay nothing for room and board you are looking at a minimum of $165,000.

Is an ED app worth it?

If you don't get in anywhere you want to go, you can apply ED the following year.

Applications are going to continue to drop. Why ED?

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elterrible78
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Re: 2.97, 173, non URM - ED penn?

Postby elterrible78 » Sun Aug 11, 2013 3:33 pm

Monochromatic Oeuvre wrote:
elterrible78 wrote:I'm well aware that three people is hardly statistically significant. My actual models that demonstrate that there is no advantage to EDing Penn use thousands of observations. I was just giving the OP the raw numbers that correspond to his situation.

I guess as long as you believe ED provides an advantage, though, it must be true. ;-)


I'm not suggesting the advantage to Penn ED is substantial (I think it's likely that there's not enough evidence to make strong claims either way), but I think the suggestion that it is demonstrable that there is no advantage to ED at Penn is not supported by the data.

Image

compared with

Image

and

Image

compared with

Image

Usual caveats apply, but I think the idea that Penn ED improves a marginal applicant's chances was not pulled out of thin air.


There are a couple problems with this, actually. One is that the GPA ranges are enormous, and another is that aside from numbers (which are only very loosely controlled for), the only other factor controlled for is URM status. Based on my analysis (which controls much more strictly for numbers, as well as for URM and nontrad status, gender, ED vs RD, and timing of the application), there actually IS a very significant boost for splitters who apply as early as possible, which might (along with the whole GPA thing) be accounting for the differences in those charts.

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WokeUpInACar
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Re: 2.97, 173, non URM - ED penn?

Postby WokeUpInACar » Sun Aug 11, 2013 3:34 pm

Ehhh, he isn't going to get substantial $ from any school lower than WUSTL anyway. I think for sub 3.0 splitters EDing is a fine choice as long as they understand the implications of paying sticker.

ETA: I would absolutely ED Penn in OP's shoes.




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