please chance me! 2.96/173/nonURM/lame softs

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wolfgang
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please chance me! 2.96/173/nonURM/lame softs

Postby wolfgang » Tue Jul 30, 2013 9:05 pm

2.97 lsdas gpa, decent university (think Baylor, Drexel, University of San Diego), psych major.

167/173/170 lsat scores. so no more retakes sadly.

spotty work experience, worked lame jobs all through undergrad, like 30/hrs a week range, but there were some gaps and it's not super great WE. it definitely wasn't the like 2-years of full time that NU looks for. 3 years out of undergrad.

Have a M.A. from a State school. earned like a 3.6x gpa in masters program.

Some lab work at Duke with a grad student there, about a year of experience in the lab. not full time work but still a soft, albeit a poor one. and that's pretty much it for softs.

I'm wondering if I got a shot at a t-14? t-20? Not too interested in going below the top 20, my gpa isn't competitive enough for a scholly and some of those employment numbers are scary...

I'm locked out of hysccn for sure, locked out of boalt, but what about the rest? I'm hoping that the fall in applicants and 170+ lsat scores might give me a hail mary shot at some of the middle/lower t-14s.

If possible, can we divide them up into the "splitter friendly" options (which are basically NU RD and UVA ED) and chance me for those?

And then, what about my chances at MVPDNCG, all regular decision? basically, I'm wondering if NU or UVA-ED are my only non-negligible shots, or if it would be smart to not ed anywhere and see what kind of scholarships shake out from lower ranked schools.

What about the rest of the t-20? More interested in ucla/usc, but would like to hear them all if you got 'em

thanks TLS!

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jbagelboy
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Re: please chance me! 2.96/173/nonURM/lame softs

Postby jbagelboy » Tue Jul 30, 2013 10:17 pm

I think several lower T14s will bite.

Probably not Duke or Michigan. Penn is unlikely. Others are fair game

Anyway, best of luck. I wouldnt ED if I were you.

wolfgang
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Re: please chance me! 2.96/173/nonURM/lame softs

Postby wolfgang » Tue Jul 30, 2013 11:11 pm

Hi jbagelboy:

thank you for your reply.

Looks like cornell has one of the higher 25th gpa's, you (or anyone) think I have a shot there?

What about UCLA/USC/Utexas?

thank you!!!




Edit: also looks like UVA has higher (i.e. as compared to gulc, nu, etc) gpa ranges as well. Are you considering them one that might bite? Or are you just saying you wouldn't ED because I don't even have a shot there ED so it'd be a waste.

Do you (anyone) think I have a shot at Penn ed? thanks

bimmer11
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Re: please chance me! 2.96/173/nonURM/lame softs

Postby bimmer11 » Tue Jul 30, 2013 11:36 pm

I'm fairly new here but I've been lurking for awhile. I don't mean to speak for jbagelboy but I think he meant don't ED because you forgo your chance a decent $$ and admits from other schools. Having a 173 LSAT even with your GPA could prove to be fairly lucrative. As far as UT goes, they seem to have a little GPA leniency for residents but looking through LSN shows OOS low GPA apps getting turned down.

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jbagelboy
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Re: please chance me! 2.96/173/nonURM/lame softs

Postby jbagelboy » Tue Jul 30, 2013 11:43 pm

wolfgang wrote:Hi jbagelboy:

thank you for your reply.

Looks like cornell has one of the higher 25th gpa's, you (or anyone) think I have a shot there?

What about UCLA/USC/Utexas?

thank you!!!




Edit: also looks like UVA has higher (i.e. as compared to gulc, nu, etc) gpa ranges as well. Are you considering them one that might bite? Or are you just saying you wouldn't ED because I don't even have a shot there ED so it'd be a waste.

Do you (anyone) think I have a shot at Penn ed? thanks


Cornell, GULC, UVA, NU are all in play here.

I dont think an ED Penn will work out. They wont dip below 3.0 ever, and the lowest on LSN with only one outlier is 3.15. If you want to ED a top school, UVA is the way to go. I think Penn may be worth an application RD (because next cycle could be crazier than this one)

You are not locked out of T13. The above poster discussed UT.. Unfortunately, UCLA/USC tend not to be very splitter friendly. Among the T30 schools, UMN & GW w/ $ are good bets for splitters.

californiabeauar
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Re: please chance me! 2.96/173/nonURM/lame softs

Postby californiabeauar » Wed Jul 31, 2013 1:38 am

T-10 won't touch that GPA. Maybe Cornell or GT. Def can crack some T-20. You should have picked an easier major. Oh wait.....

wolfgang
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Re: please chance me! 2.96/173/nonURM/lame softs

Postby wolfgang » Wed Jul 31, 2013 1:47 am

hmmm.... when i look at lsn, it shows that someone with a 3.01 got penn who was not an urm, whereas the lowest non-urm to get into cornell was like 3.26

am I missing something?

thanks!

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Winston1984
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Re: please chance me! 2.96/173/nonURM/lame softs

Postby Winston1984 » Wed Jul 31, 2013 1:49 am

californiabeauar wrote:T-10 won't touch that GPA. Maybe Cornell or GT. Def can crack some T-20. You should have picked an easier major. Oh wait.....


He's just looking for advice. No need to be a dick.

bimmer11
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Re: please chance me! 2.96/173/nonURM/lame softs

Postby bimmer11 » Wed Jul 31, 2013 2:03 am

wolfgang wrote:hmmm.... when i look at lsn, it shows that someone with a 3.01 got penn who was not an urm, whereas the lowest non-urm to get into cornell was like 3.26

am I missing something?

thanks!


Several schools such as Penn have GPA floors and 3.0 seems to be a common number for T6-10 schools (exception Berkley). Just a quick search of LSN shows the last 3 cycles and no sub 3.0s got admitted.

wolfgang
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Re: please chance me! 2.96/173/nonURM/lame softs

Postby wolfgang » Wed Jul 31, 2013 2:26 am

I see. yeah, I'm aware of the gpa floors, and i think i was just misinterpreting the data in a funny way.

At first glance, it seems that penn would be "more" splitter friendly because the cornell "floor" seems to be higher. Of course, this is only based on this year's data, AND it's due to the assumption that cornell has a floor (which I thought it did... and I thought it was above 3.0 for all practical purposes), AND its just bad statistics in general. That being said, the root of my question was more that, if we were both looking at the same set of data, it seems unlikely that he would have phrased it in just that way. Mostly I am just checking to make sure we are referring to the same data and I'm not somehow mistaken.

I was just making sure I'm on the same page as everyone else. I've been doing tons and tons of research, visiting forums, etc. Clearly, since I have 3 lsat scores, I have been doing research since at least last cycle (although in reality, it's been more than a year) and maybe I'm just slower than everyone else to adapt to the huge change in the academic landscape, what with the drop in applicants, or maybe I just suck at interpreting data, but if I was just looking at data I would consider myself locked out of the entire t-14 and most of the t-20.

To hear that I have a shot at cornell, uva, or gulc kind of blows my mind because the data doesn't support that conclusion in my (often wrong) mind. But people on TLS give out this advice all the time, and considering how contentious this crowd is (and I mean that affectionately), how many stats whiz kids are lurking around, and just how honest to the point of being discouraging and possibly taking it too far everyone seems to be, the fact that nobody flat-out contradicts this advice is heartening.


Maybe I'm doing it wrong, but to move away from lsn for a second, mylsn.info shows no hope of cornell, very little hope at uva, and a small (like, 30% or less) at gulc.

I'm not saying anyone is wrong, I'm starting from the assumption that I'm wrong and asking how others (who are most likely brighter than myself) are interpreting the data to arrive at the conclusion that, say, cornell is an option. Just based on the tiny, tiny amount of people in my range, it seems like UCLA is actually a better shot than cornell.

Where am I veering off the statistical path here? Thanks!

also: Winston1984--thanks, man. sh!t that restores my faith in humanity never goes unappreciated!

bimmer11
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Re: please chance me! 2.96/173/nonURM/lame softs

Postby bimmer11 » Wed Jul 31, 2013 2:59 am

Here's just a general outline:

When you look at mylsn make sure you are looking at the last 2 or 3 cycles, not the last 5 or more years. As you stated the game has changed significantly over the last two years and data prior to 2010 can be looked at in a different light.

As far as Cornell, I'm not sure because I have always seen a GPA floor present in the data. Since these guys have been around a lot longer than I have, I'm sure they have their reasoning. Another thing to look at is the WL, you're not always going to get an acceptance off the bat. A lot of splitters have a long wait and it has the potential to pay off in April or May if their target school is desperate for a high LSAT score.

That said, people with similar stats do have success at UVA with ED and off the WL. As for GULC, a quick look at LSN shows several sub 3.0s getting admitted. I would also expand your choices to include some T-30s as was mentioned above. With your LSAT you have a decent chance at $$, so weight debt vs. T-14, etc. while making your decision.

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Clearly
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Re: please chance me! 2.96/173/nonURM/lame softs

Postby Clearly » Wed Jul 31, 2013 4:10 am

I honestly believe you'll get NU with or without work experience. This cycle indicates they have had to prioritize what they look for in an applicant, and it appears they chose the LSAT. I personally know people without 2 years of work experience with your numbers who got in, and I expect next cycle you would likely be waitlist->admit if I had to guess.

I think an ED UVA would prob work, although it depends on the applicant pool.

Outside of that its kind of a crapshoot honestly. GULC is a possibility although they have denied splitters with similar numbers, and cornell is possible but not likely in my opinion unless they are really hurting for lsats, they have a more formal gpa floor than the other 3.

Those are your likely T14 options as I see it, Penn is out imo.

wolfgang
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Re: please chance me! 2.96/173/nonURM/lame softs

Postby wolfgang » Wed Jul 31, 2013 11:38 am

yeah. I checked both mylsn and law school numbers, i was really only talking about lsn for 2012/2013 and 2011/2012.

Just based on those charts, cornell seems to me to be more selective: penn has definitely let in lower non-urms than cornell.

What this means, I have no idea, but... i guess we will see. so, when we talk about chances on these sites, what are we really talking about? When someone says "You'll probably get nu" or "cornell is unlikely", what does that mean? for example, when people look at TTT schools that "only" place 60% of their grads in legal jobs, they say "don't go to a TTT, it's unlikely that you'll work as a lawyer". And yet, if I had a 60% shot at cornell, I would hardly consider that "unlikely".

Similarly, a converse phrasing is present when people say "dont go to TTT, you'll probably never work as a lawyer". But man, if 30% is probably, that's not so good, especially not for the things that aren't so 'probably'.

I mean, I'm happy to apply to cornell if we're talking a 25% shot, maybe less. heck, I'll apply to most t-14s for a solid 1% shot.

also, not to pick on clearlynotstefan.... i know i used a lot of your phrasing in this post, it's not because i'm questioning you or your advice in particular, but rather because your post was the most recent and therefore the freshest in my mind :)

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jbagelboy
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Re: please chance me! 2.96/173/nonURM/lame softs

Postby jbagelboy » Wed Jul 31, 2013 12:47 pm

Okay. You want me to give some more specific rough estimates:

With a 2.9x/173, I see you in at NU w/ some post-grad WE at 80% (possibly after a hold/WL)
In at UVA 60% (with good why uva)
In at GULC 60% (with convincing application)
In at Cornell 20%
In at Penn 5% (still worth applying)
Michigan, Duke, NYU: <1%
Berkeley, HYSCC: 0.0%

Honestly, if I were you and I had the application $, Id hit everywhere but Berkeley and HYSCC since they would never, ever admit you. But thats because I wouldnt want that burning "what if" - Hence broader apps for splitters due to the extreme uncertainty. Some of this is projection based on how badly these schools will want that LSAT (NYU dipped really, really low this year for 171+. They could do it again although probaby not below 3.1. Its possible though.)

Dont worry so much about all this, about who says what, or which schools are some minisule percentage more likely than others

wolfgang
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Re: please chance me! 2.96/173/nonURM/lame softs

Postby wolfgang » Wed Jul 31, 2013 12:58 pm

wow!

so much more information than I was expecting. Thanks to everyone and especially jbagelboy!

Let's just hope that the cycles keep getting crazier and crazier...




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