non-URM 2.75/172. Shot at the t-14? Strong regionals?

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littleaaron
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non-URM 2.75/172. Shot at the t-14? Strong regionals?

Postby littleaaron » Thu Jul 11, 2013 8:26 pm

out of retakes.

I've done my research (lsn, various predictors, blogs, etc). Now looking for more advice, just to have more info!

Do I have a shot at the top 14? I'm well aware of the normal advice like splitter should ED virginia, or go for northwestern. Therefore, I have done a lot of research on those schools, and I am pretty well aware of my chances there. It's possible that EDing virginia and applying to NU might be my only options, but I'm have a really, really hard time getting a handle on my chances for other schools in the t-14.
This might affect my application strategy. For example, depending on my chances at another t-14 school that I might prefer over UVA, I might risk not applying ED there.

Here is my school list in order of preference (leaving out some of the t'14s I don't care as much about or think I have zero chance at, but rest assured that I will be tossing them a hail mary app nonetheless), and I guess I have 2 main questions: What are my chances at some of these schools? And, assuming that I decide that UCLA is my dream school, do I have any kind of chance there if I apply ED (i.e. is it worth it)?


Schools:
Chicago (I think I have no chance here)
Penn
Cornell
UCLA (maybe ED?)
USC
NYU
Michigan
Virginia RD
GULC
UTexas

Then, some schools I would go to with substantial scholarships:

Davis
Pepperdine
UC Irvine
Hawaii
Rutgers
American
Hastings


So, I'm trying to lay out strategy for applying, where to ED, or not to ED, etc. as well as get a handle on my chances for the above and a general chance of whether I may be able to get a scholarship to any of the second list of schools that might make attendance worth it.

Thanks in advance for all your wise advice. Y'all rock.

P.S. I definitely prefer harsh reality, and any other advice that I didn;t ask for but that may be helpful would also be appreciated. Thank you all!

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Cobretti
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Re: non-URM 2.75/172. Shot at the t-14? Strong regionals?

Postby Cobretti » Thu Jul 11, 2013 10:10 pm

littleaaron wrote:Schools:
Chicago (I think I have no chance here)
Penn
Cornell

UCLA (maybe ED?)
USC
NYU
Michigan
Virginia RD

GULC
UTexas

Image
ED Only:
Image
*The NU ED was WL->Admit

Ti Malice
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Re: non-URM 2.75/172. Shot at the t-14? Strong regionals?

Postby Ti Malice » Fri Jul 12, 2013 12:46 am

The long and the short of it is that, with your GPA, law school will almost certainly only make financial sense if you attend at T14 -- and even then you'll have to decide if you want to owe $280-290K at the start of repayment. You might also get big scholarships at WUSTL and Minnesota, but it doesn't look like you have much interest in those areas of the country, and the scholarships might not be big enough to make attending either a financially defensible decision. And the truth really is that NU, GULC, and UVA (in order from most likely to least) are the only T14 schools to which you have any realistic chance of being admitted.

littleaaron wrote:Then, some schools I would go to with substantial scholarships:
Davis
Pepperdine
UC Irvine
Hawaii
Rutgers
American
Hastings


All of these schools would cost you far, far more than any sane human being would ever be justified in paying. Non-elite schools in very competitive and desirable markets very often have horrible employment placement, because they take a backseat in employment to the entire T14 and possibly stronger local schools, all of which are sending loads of their students to compete with you.

Hastings and UC-Davis are in or near a tremendously oversaturated market and have terrible employment placement. American places worst than most TTT/TTTTs -- seriously. Hawaii has bad placement, offers minimal aid, and will only get you a job in Hawaii, if at all; and if you're not from Hawaii, it probably won't get you a job there. Pepperdine has atrocious placement and is very expensive. UC-Irvine is a new school, and no one knows for certain how it will turn out, but you can expect that its future results will bear little resemblance to those of its first class, which was tiny, which consisted entirely of full-tuition scholarship students, and which benefited from its dean calling in special favors to employers and judges. The classes are getting progressively larger, the per capita scholarship numbers are declining drastically (drawing students with lower stats), and the school has no alumni network to help its grads compete with the SoCal powers of UCLA and USC (neither of which would be worth what they would charge you, either). Both Rutgers law schools have bad placement, and you're unlikely to receive much money from either. All of which points back to the first sentence of this post.

littleaaron
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Re: non-URM 2.75/172. Shot at the t-14? Strong regionals?

Postby littleaaron » Fri Jul 12, 2013 1:06 am

@cobretti: Thanks, but that's all info that I already had. There's so few data points and i've looked at them so many times that I'm now turning to the masses for opinions, which I think i mentioned in my OP. While I do appreciate the effort, I'd be much more interested in hearing your personal opinions. I know.... somewhat unusual, and not very scientific, but I'm looking for data that I can't obtain via all those other data sites. All of this data that you posted is freely available to me, but your actual thoughts are not so that's what I'm after. But thanks for the data you did post! it will undoubtedly help somebody in the future :)

@Ti: Yes. I agree with what you are saying. Can I ask a few clarifying questions?

I'm completely opposed to paying sticker at that "second list" of schools (davis, rutgers, etc). What kind of scholarship is need to make these worthwhile, and do I have a shot at any money from these lower ranked schools?

When you are listing the t-14's I have a shot at, is that RD or ED? If RD, are you suggesting that I not ED anywhere and just apply to places RD?

What does TLS consider a realistic chance? is it the case that some of my dream schools (chicago, penn, ucla) just aren't even worth an app, or is it just a low chance, or...? At this point in my life/cycle, I consider anything over a 10% chance a 'good shot'. Is this overly optimistic, or underly optimistic? Say a school like UCLA. When you say that I don't have a shot, what percentage are you pegging that at? Certainly not questioning your thoughts, but I'm simply curious.

thanks both of yoU!

Ti Malice
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Re: non-URM 2.75/172. Shot at the t-14? Strong regionals?

Postby Ti Malice » Fri Jul 12, 2013 1:39 am

littleaaron wrote:@Ti: Yes. I agree with what you are saying. Can I ask a few clarifying questions?

I'm completely opposed to paying sticker at that "second list" of schools (davis, rutgers, etc). What kind of scholarship is need to make these worthwhile, and do I have a shot at any money from these lower ranked schools?

When you are listing the t-14's I have a shot at, is that RD or ED? If RD, are you suggesting that I not ED anywhere and just apply to places RD?

What does TLS consider a realistic chance? is it the case that some of my dream schools (chicago, penn, ucla) just aren't even worth an app, or is it just a low chance, or...? At this point in my life/cycle, I consider anything over a 10% chance a 'good shot'. Is this overly optimistic, or underly optimistic? Say a school like UCLA. When you say that I don't have a shot, what percentage are you pegging that at? Certainly not questioning your thoughts, but I'm simply curious.

thanks both of yoU!


I wouldn't suggest that anyone attend any of the schools on the second list with anything less than a full-tuition scholarship. Many of those schools are placing less than 50% of their classes into full-time, long-term, JD-required jobs within nine months of graduation. I wouldn't suggest someone attend American (less than 40% placement) unless they're actually getting paid a substantial amount to attend. These schools have far less scholarship money to offer than the elite schools, and your GPA almost certainly precludes you from being considered for the few full-ride grants they might offer or any other generous merit grant.

You would need to ED to UVA to have your best shot there. Data is very limited for super-splitters, but your chances at UVA would probably be somewhere between 25% to 40%. Your best overall chance is at NU (probably 60-75%, assuming you have work experience), and you would apply RD there. NU's ED is very competitive because, as of last year, ED admission comes with a full-tuition scholarship; accordingly, it's only intended for people with high numbers. I don't know enough about GULC to say whether applying ED gives you a strong advantage there or not. Regardless, I wouldn't apply ED to GULC, because GULC is clearly the weakest of the T14 and is absolutely not worth sticker price. Applying RD to GULC probably gives you a 25-35% chance of admission. Given the likely further contraction of the applicant pool, and the corresponding increase in value of high LSAT scores, all of these guesses at non-zero chances might understate your chances for the coming cycle.

Lastly, I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but unless you're a famous novelist or an Olympic gold medalist, you have no chance at Chicago and Penn with your GPA. If you feel that you'll always regret not having taken the chance, then you should just pay the app fees to get definitive answers. You have some chance at UCLA from the WL (probably 15-25%), but you would have to pay sticker. UCLA is currently the most expensive school to attend in the country (tuition plus cost of living), with projected debt at start of repayment for debt-financing sticker cost now topping $300K for the first time at any law school. UCLA is a good school, but that is an utterly insane price to pay for the job prospects it offers.

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Cobretti
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Re: non-URM 2.75/172. Shot at the t-14? Strong regionals?

Postby Cobretti » Fri Jul 12, 2013 2:27 am

littleaaron wrote:@cobretti: Thanks, but that's all info that I already had. There's so few data points and i've looked at them so many times that I'm now turning to the masses for opinions, which I think i mentioned in my OP. While I do appreciate the effort, I'd be much more interested in hearing your personal opinions. I know.... somewhat unusual, and not very scientific, but I'm looking for data that I can't obtain via all those other data sites. All of this data that you posted is freely available to me, but your actual thoughts are not so that's what I'm after. But thanks for the data you did post! it will undoubtedly help somebody in the future :)

The only comments I can give that aren't displayed in the data are that if you have strong WE your chances at NU increase. If you are K-JD you are looking at an outside shot of getting off the waitlist very late in the cycle at best.

As far as asking which schools you have at least a hail mary shot at, I'd apply to UVA, NU, GULC and UCLA from your list (adding NU to your list because it has to be there). Like Ti said, you do have literally 0% shot at uchi/penn, but if it helps you sleep at night feel free to send out the apps.

littleaaron
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Re: non-URM 2.75/172. Shot at the t-14? Strong regionals?

Postby littleaaron » Fri Jul 12, 2013 2:35 am

thanks for the info both of you.

Just out of curiosity, why is penn waitlisting so many people with my numbers? Is this just to have them in reserve, and then they end up filling the slots with better applicants? Or is there some advantage to Wling people that you don't intend to let in, kind of like how a school might YP but from some reason that I'm not seeing?

Am i missing some options here? What about cornell? I'm definitely in the mindset of "well, where I apply is where I have a good chance at a job, so I may be living there, AND i will definitely have to live there for three years, AND i'll do better and be happier if I love the school and the town, so where would I want to live?". I love cornell and ithica, and it's kind of this smaller town vibe that leans me towards some schools (davis, ithaca, hawaii, etc) and away from others (NU, georgetown, etc). I hope to eventually live and work in california (i'm from california, can't handle the cold so much of the east coast/north is out). It seems that my bottom choices for schools are the ones I have a shot at.

Again, just out of curiosity, taking NU, GULC, and UVA out, what's the next most likely t-14? Please note, I'm not trying to disregard your advice. I think it's solid. But I'm trying to collect data, and anything that comes out of a reliable mouth or that gets reiterated by many mouths who's reliability is unknown will carry some weight.

And, thanks again for all your responses and indulgence and just general helpfulness. It is appreciated, by me and all the other 0ls who have been in my position,

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Cobretti
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Re: non-URM 2.75/172. Shot at the t-14? Strong regionals?

Postby Cobretti » Fri Jul 12, 2013 2:43 am

littleaaron wrote:thanks for the info both of you.

Just out of curiosity, why is penn waitlisting so many people with my numbers? Is this just to have them in reserve, and then they end up filling the slots with better applicants? Or is there some advantage to Wling people that you don't intend to let in, kind of like how a school might YP but from some reason that I'm not seeing?

Am i missing some options here? What about cornell? I'm definitely in the mindset of "well, where I apply is where I have a good chance at a job, so I may be living there, AND i will definitely have to live there for three years, AND i'll do better and be happier if I love the school and the town, so where would I want to live?". I love cornell and ithica, and it's kind of this smaller town vibe that leans me towards some schools (davis, ithaca, hawaii, etc) and away from others (NU, georgetown, etc). I hope to eventually live and work in california (i'm from california, can't handle the cold so much of the east coast/north is out). It seems that my bottom choices for schools are the ones I have a shot at.

Again, just out of curiosity, taking NU, GULC, and UVA out, what's the next most likely t-14? Please note, I'm not trying to disregard your advice. I think it's solid. But I'm trying to collect data, and anything that comes out of a reliable mouth or that gets reiterated by many mouths who's reliability is unknown will carry some weight.

And, thanks again for all your responses and indulgence and just general helpfulness. It is appreciated, by me and all the other 0ls who have been in my position,

lsn data is much more reliable than anything we're saying. unless you're a special snowflake with very unique circumstances your cycle will be similar to what those numbers predict.

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Clearly
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Re: non-URM 2.75/172. Shot at the t-14? Strong regionals?

Postby Clearly » Fri Jul 12, 2013 2:45 am

Alrighty, fairly similar applicant, at least in that im a super splitter.
Cornell is out, fairly firm GPA floor.
NU is likely with work experience.
UVA is only gonna happen ED, and even then not a lock. Out RD almost certainly.
GULC is a pretty good shot although if your going to do the city thing, you should do NU anyway.
Everything else is almost certainly out in the T14.

Prob sig $$ at WUSTL

Don't know enough about UCLA to have any opinion at all on it.

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Cobretti
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Re: non-URM 2.75/172. Shot at the t-14? Strong regionals?

Postby Cobretti » Fri Jul 12, 2013 2:49 am

Clearlynotstefan wrote:Alrighty, fairly similar applicant, at least in that im a super splitter.
Cornell is out, fairly firm GPA floor.
NU is likely with work experience.
UVA is only gonna happen ED, and even then not a lock. Out RD almost certainly.
GULC is a pretty good shot although if your going to do the city thing, you should do NU anyway.
Everything else is almost certainly out in the T14.

Prob sig $$ at WUSTL

Don't know enough about UCLA to have any opinion at all on it.

note how the data backs this up perfectly

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Clearly
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Re: non-URM 2.75/172. Shot at the t-14? Strong regionals?

Postby Clearly » Fri Jul 12, 2013 2:58 am

Cobretti wrote:
Clearlynotstefan wrote:Alrighty, fairly similar applicant, at least in that im a super splitter.
Cornell is out, fairly firm GPA floor.
NU is likely with work experience.
UVA is only gonna happen ED, and even then not a lock. Out RD almost certainly.
GULC is a pretty good shot although if your going to do the city thing, you should do NU anyway.
Everything else is almost certainly out in the T14.

Prob sig $$ at WUSTL

Don't know enough about UCLA to have any opinion at all on it.

note how the data backs this up perfectly

Who'd of thunk it. Although I didn't read the whole thread till now. I didn't know we were doing a "boo data, yay anecdotes" thing.

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Cobretti
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Re: non-URM 2.75/172. Shot at the t-14? Strong regionals?

Postby Cobretti » Fri Jul 12, 2013 3:00 am

Clearlynotstefan wrote:
Cobretti wrote:
Clearlynotstefan wrote:Alrighty, fairly similar applicant, at least in that im a super splitter.
Cornell is out, fairly firm GPA floor.
NU is likely with work experience.
UVA is only gonna happen ED, and even then not a lock. Out RD almost certainly.
GULC is a pretty good shot although if your going to do the city thing, you should do NU anyway.
Everything else is almost certainly out in the T14.

Prob sig $$ at WUSTL

Don't know enough about UCLA to have any opinion at all on it.

note how the data backs this up perfectly

Who'd of thunk it. Although I didn't read the whole thread till now. I didn't know we were doing a "boo data, yay anecdotes" thing.

oh i meant that @OP. was just pointing out how the lsn data was still as good as he was going to get.

littleaaron
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Re: non-URM 2.75/172. Shot at the t-14? Strong regionals?

Postby littleaaron » Fri Jul 12, 2013 11:01 am

hm. Thanks for all the replies.
In my defense, I'm not sure why people seem confused that I'm asking for advice and not LSN data. There are a few reasons for this, and I think they're solid:

1) I already have the LSN data
2) there aren't many data points, because similar applicants are far and few between
3) It's very possible that someone here can give me information NOT available on LSN. For example, lsn data shows nobody in my pool ever getting into yale. This would reasonably lead one to conclude that yale has a hard gpa floor. However, if there was some statistical anomaly that lead to self-reporting skewing towards high caliber acceptances, there could be another reason for that. It could be the case that yale prefers sub 3.0 supersplitters, but these just aren't reporting. If enough people say "i have a brother/friend/whatever who got in to X school with X numbers", it's likely to give reason to doubt the data. Of course, I don't think this is the case. I'm just making the point that NOT overly relying on self-reported data is statistics 101. I'm posting in order to collect additional data, and since I have all the hard data, I'm turning to anecdotal evidence to see if I can get reason to doubt the reliability of the self-reported data. I think this isn't just valid, but a good idea.
4) Similar to the above, which gives a scientific/statistical reason for appreciating anecdotal data, i believe that even someone who has never heard of LSN and is just turning here for their first and only round of data collection shouldn't turn up their nose at anecdotal evidence if that's all they can get. Ought it be considered on the same level as hard numbers? no. Is it data that can still be useful in given a picture of the situation, taken with a large grain of salt? yes.
4) in a lot of ways, lsn, being self-reported, is anecdotal data. is it pretty darn reliable? i think so, but have no reason to say that i KNOW that every profile on there is accurate. This can be thought of as just expanding my LSN data set to include not just self-reported data points, but externally reported data points.
5) most importantly, why is this even a subforum if all the data can be gleaned through LSN? As a splitter, I don't get the large picture that the rest of you get. I need to collect much more data, and this forum is supposed to be a place where I can do that. In fact, isn't one of the "requirements" for posting in this forum that one be in a position where LSN just isn't that helpful? The "should I make a what are my chances thread" flow chart seems to indicate that this is more true than not.


All that being said, I do appreciate the useful feedback. And this thread isn't solely looking for anecdotal data, I'm also asking for advice, mainly concerning a reasonable application strategy. The common wisdom here seems to be to RD ucla, is there some reason why I ought not ED given the fact that I'm not looking at money either way? thanks!

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Cobretti
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Re: non-URM 2.75/172. Shot at the t-14? Strong regionals?

Postby Cobretti » Fri Jul 12, 2013 11:14 am

I guess I should have prefaced my statements with the fact that I'm a 173/3.0 splitter myself, and I'm saying in my personal experience, that LSN data is spot on. Sub 3.0 is different territory though so its only going to be rougher for you. In terms of softs making your cycle unique, I'm a veteran and my cycle played out how conventional wisdom said it would for my numbers, so you're not going to see anything different. GL though.

ETA: I'm really not sure if the UCLA ED is a significant boost or not. Some schools give a substantial boost to ED apps (UVA) while others seem to give almost no boost (CLS). Hopefully someone else can comment on that since there's no data.

dstars823
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Re: non-URM 2.75/172. Shot at the t-14? Strong regionals?

Postby dstars823 » Fri Jul 12, 2013 11:27 am

we had very similar stats but your best shot at the T14 is NU... but you may have to ride the waitlist and get accepted. It will probably be at sticker.

The midwest has a ton of Splitter friendly schools like WUSTL, Minn, Indiana who will throw you solid amounts of money, also if you arent averse to the south, Alabama and Georgia are strong regionals that will offer you close to a full ride for your stats.

littleaaron
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Re: non-URM 2.75/172. Shot at the t-14? Strong regionals?

Postby littleaaron » Fri Jul 12, 2013 11:39 am

if you both are comfortable, I'd be really, really interested to know where you both got in... and where you got rejected from :)

thanks!




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