Mylsn Chances?

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yot11
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Mylsn Chances?

Postby yot11 » Mon Jun 24, 2013 12:50 pm

I was looking through mylsn numbers and I was wondering why sometimes a higher lsat score will apparently reduce your chances of admission? In this case it's Yale's chances decreasing from a 33% to a 25% when the lsat range is increased from a 174-176 to a 176-178. I understand that due to the small sample size there's bound to be fluctuation but compounded with the (fairly significantly) higher lsat score, I don't quite understand the discrepancy.

http://myLSN.info/dbzex5_1-14.jpg

http://myLSN.info/awlk2a_1-14.jpg

P.S. Sorry about the links, I guess I'm allowed to post images yet

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Presidentjlh
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Re: Mylsn Chances?

Postby Presidentjlh » Mon Jun 24, 2013 1:00 pm

The only answer is Yale admissions are trippy, yo.

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JamMasterJ
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Re: Mylsn Chances?

Postby JamMasterJ » Mon Jun 24, 2013 1:06 pm

because it''s based on the people in that range, and when you have like 10 people to compare, you're gonna get funny results, especially with Y

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jbagelboy
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Re: Mylsn Chances?

Postby jbagelboy » Mon Jun 24, 2013 1:20 pm

as others have noted, its a product of 1) basic statistics, increasing sample size at Yale = more rejections
2) Yield Protection at UVA and down

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Monochromatic Oeuvre
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Re: Mylsn Chances?

Postby Monochromatic Oeuvre » Mon Jun 24, 2013 6:18 pm

Sample size is tiny. The discrepancy is well within the margin of error for any school, much less Yale, where admissions might as well be done with a magic 8-ball.

As mentioned, the only possible way a higher LSAT lowers your chance of being accepted is when you're being YPed, but that only happens on a large scale at MVP.

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mvonh001
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Re: Mylsn Chances?

Postby mvonh001 » Sun Jun 30, 2013 9:32 am

Monochromatic Oeuvre wrote:Sample size is tiny. The discrepancy is well within the margin of error for any school, much less Yale, where admissions might as well be done with a magic 8-ball.

As mentioned, the only possible way a higher LSAT lowers your chance of being accepted is when you're being YPed, but that only happens on a large scale at MVP.


How do you combat the YP? Write a good why Penn or why UVA essay? Or do you need to apply ED to make it if you are borderline (median lsat, below median gpa)?

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bernaldiaz
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Re: Mylsn Chances?

Postby bernaldiaz » Sun Jun 30, 2013 9:46 am

mvonh001 wrote:
Monochromatic Oeuvre wrote:Sample size is tiny. The discrepancy is well within the margin of error for any school, much less Yale, where admissions might as well be done with a magic 8-ball.

As mentioned, the only possible way a higher LSAT lowers your chance of being accepted is when you're being YPed, but that only happens on a large scale at MVP.


How do you combat the YP? Write a good why Penn or why UVA essay? Or do you need to apply ED to make it if you are borderline (median lsat, below median gpa)?


I didn't get YP'd anywhere and I was well within YP range. I wrote why essays for UVA, UPenn, Duke, and Michigan, and was proactive with the admissions people at times (for example, I hadn't heard from Penn for like 4 months and I sent an email re-expressing interest and got in within a couple days after that).

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mvonh001
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Re: Mylsn Chances?

Postby mvonh001 » Sun Jun 30, 2013 1:32 pm

bernaldiaz wrote:
mvonh001 wrote:
Monochromatic Oeuvre wrote:Sample size is tiny. The discrepancy is well within the margin of error for any school, much less Yale, where admissions might as well be done with a magic 8-ball.

As mentioned, the only possible way a higher LSAT lowers your chance of being accepted is when you're being YPed, but that only happens on a large scale at MVP.


How do you combat the YP? Write a good why Penn or why UVA essay? Or do you need to apply ED to make it if you are borderline (median lsat, below median gpa)?


I didn't get YP'd anywhere and I was well within YP range. I wrote why essays for UVA, UPenn, Duke, and Michigan, and was proactive with the admissions people at times (for example, I hadn't heard from Penn for like 4 months and I sent an email re-expressing interest and got in within a couple days after that).


Great but what about people who are at median LSAT and below median GPA? would you just recommend sending the why letters as opposed to ED?

homie1515
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Re: Mylsn Chances?

Postby homie1515 » Sun Jun 30, 2013 2:14 pm

mvonh001 wrote:
bernaldiaz wrote:
mvonh001 wrote:
Monochromatic Oeuvre wrote:Sample size is tiny. The discrepancy is well within the margin of error for any school, much less Yale, where admissions might as well be done with a magic 8-ball.

As mentioned, the only possible way a higher LSAT lowers your chance of being accepted is when you're being YPed, but that only happens on a large scale at MVP.


How do you combat the YP? Write a good why Penn or why UVA essay? Or do you need to apply ED to make it if you are borderline (median lsat, below median gpa)?


I didn't get YP'd anywhere and I was well within YP range. I wrote why essays for UVA, UPenn, Duke, and Michigan, and was proactive with the admissions people at times (for example, I hadn't heard from Penn for like 4 months and I sent an email re-expressing interest and got in within a couple days after that).


Great but what about people who are at median LSAT and below median 25% GPA? would you just recommend sending the why letters as opposed to ED?


This ^^, what are we to do?

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Tiago Splitter
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Re: Mylsn Chances?

Postby Tiago Splitter » Sun Jun 30, 2013 2:50 pm

homie1515 wrote:
mvonh001 wrote:Great but what about people who are at median LSAT and below median 25% GPA? would you just recommend sending the why letters as opposed to ED?


This ^^, what are we to do?

It's really not yield protection with those numbers.

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mvonh001
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Re: Mylsn Chances?

Postby mvonh001 » Sun Jun 30, 2013 3:02 pm

Tiago Splitter wrote:
homie1515 wrote:
mvonh001 wrote:Great but what about people who are at median LSAT and below median 25% GPA? would you just recommend sending the why letters as opposed to ED?


This ^^, what are we to do?

It's really not yield protection with those numbers.


I know its not yield protection, but from what i understand they put a lot of borderline people on WL, do they do this just so we can confirm our interest? Or for other reasons?

ETA: Specifically UVA and Penn.

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Tiago Splitter
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Re: Mylsn Chances?

Postby Tiago Splitter » Sun Jun 30, 2013 3:27 pm

mvonh001 wrote:
Tiago Splitter wrote:
homie1515 wrote:
mvonh001 wrote:Great but what about people who are at median LSAT and below median 25% GPA? would you just recommend sending the why letters as opposed to ED?


This ^^, what are we to do?

It's really not yield protection with those numbers.


I know its not yield protection, but from what i understand they put a lot of borderline people on WL, do they do this just so we can confirm our interest? Or for other reasons?

ETA: Specifically UVA and Penn.

You pretty much just have to either ED or roll the dice with Why Essays. Paradoxically, retaking and improving will hurt you at those schools, especially Penn. But if you are at like a 3.4/170 you have decent odds with an RD app.

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mvonh001
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Re: Mylsn Chances?

Postby mvonh001 » Sun Jun 30, 2013 3:29 pm

what about 3.37/170?

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t-14orbust
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Re: Mylsn Chances?

Postby t-14orbust » Sun Jun 30, 2013 3:31 pm


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Tiago Splitter
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Re: Mylsn Chances?

Postby Tiago Splitter » Sun Jun 30, 2013 3:32 pm

mvonh001 wrote:what about 3.37/170?

LSN says decent shot. Probably in with ED. With those numbers ED Penn is a reasonable choice.

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Tiago Splitter
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Re: Mylsn Chances?

Postby Tiago Splitter » Sun Jun 30, 2013 3:34 pm



Even better:
Image

Image

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mvonh001
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Re: Mylsn Chances?

Postby mvonh001 » Sun Jun 30, 2013 4:28 pm

Tiago Splitter wrote:
mvonh001 wrote:what about 3.37/170?

LSN says decent shot. Probably in with ED. With those numbers ED Penn is a reasonable choice.


Unfortunately I WONT have that GPA until decembers grades come in and I think that is too late for Penn's ED. right now i have a 3.31

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Tiago Splitter
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Re: Mylsn Chances?

Postby Tiago Splitter » Sun Jun 30, 2013 4:36 pm

mvonh001 wrote:
Tiago Splitter wrote:
mvonh001 wrote:what about 3.37/170?

LSN says decent shot. Probably in with ED. With those numbers ED Penn is a reasonable choice.


Unfortunately I WONT have that GPA until decembers grades come in and I think that is too late for Penn's ED. right now i have a 3.31

Don't know if it will make much of a difference. But if it doesn't work out you can always re-apply the following year. Should be over a 3.4 by then if you keep grinding.

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Monochromatic Oeuvre
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Re: Mylsn Chances?

Postby Monochromatic Oeuvre » Sun Jun 30, 2013 4:50 pm

A 3.31/170 has a good chance of getting in to UVA if he EDs, and probably a decent chance at Penn too.

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mvonh001
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Re: Mylsn Chances?

Postby mvonh001 » Sun Jun 30, 2013 5:09 pm

Monochromatic Oeuvre wrote:A 3.31/170 has a good chance of getting in to UVA if he EDs, and probably a decent chance at Penn too.


Thanks... good to know...

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bernaldiaz
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Re: Mylsn Chances?

Postby bernaldiaz » Mon Jul 01, 2013 1:40 am

Tiago Splitter wrote:
homie1515 wrote:
mvonh001 wrote:Great but what about people who are at median LSAT and below median 25% GPA? would you just recommend sending the why letters as opposed to ED?


This ^^, what are we to do?

It's really not yield protection with those numbers.


Yeah at that point they're not trying to figure out whether you actually want them, but rather if they actually want you.

Ti Malice
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Re: Mylsn Chances?

Postby Ti Malice » Mon Jul 01, 2013 3:50 am

yot11 wrote:I was looking through mylsn numbers and I was wondering why sometimes a higher lsat score will apparently reduce your chances of admission? In this case it's Yale's chances decreasing from a 33% to a 25% when the lsat range is increased from a 174-176 to a 176-178. I understand that due to the small sample size there's bound to be fluctuation but compounded with the (fairly significantly) higher lsat score, I don't quite understand the discrepancy.

http://myLSN.info/dbzex5_1-14.jpg

http://myLSN.info/awlk2a_1-14.jpg

P.S. Sorry about the links, I guess I'm allowed to post images yet


That sample size is minuscule for Yale. In the latter case, just one changed outcome shifts the odds 6.25%. By the way, for YLS and SLS, you really don't need to restrict your search to the last three cycles. With their tiny class sizes, and the fact that they're at the top in desirability, the overall decline in applicants doesn't mean that much when applying to either one.




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