3.1/174 (retake), Decent Chance at NYU or just ED Penn?

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delarge3
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Re: 3.1/174 (retake), Decent Chance at NYU or just ED Penn?

Postby delarge3 » Sat Jan 05, 2013 5:13 pm

cahwc12 wrote:
LRGhost wrote:
Tiago Splitter wrote:
LRGhost wrote:If it's only a 30% drop in 17x from Dec compared to Oct, that doesn't mean much. Need to know Feb, June, Oct, Dec of 2012 compared to 2011 to make any sort of guess about this cycle compared to last.

It's a 30% drop in the number of applicants applying with 170s compared to the data collection point (early December) of last year.


Well dang, that's a lot of people.


Yeah, and that means to me at least, that if NYU (or any other top school) hopes to both avoid cutting class size and maintain median LSAT score, then a 99% LSAT score just got about 50% more valuable. Personally I think splitters are going to do very well this cycle. Unfortunately for splitters, most of that success might well come in the form of admittance off WL. Each of these schools is going to want to believe they are special snowflakes and they'll weather the storm, so we'll probably see as many WL as last year even with the decline in apps.



I wonder why the consensus is that they will be willing to let the GPA medians drop a ton for the sake of the LSAT medians. They both affect USNWR ratings. I know LSAT medians are more important, but I think schools are expecting this drop in 170+ applicants and will allow a 1-pt drop of LSAT medians if necessary to maintain class sizes.

Data about drop (for those who hate following link after link): http://www.lsac.org/lsacresources/data/ ... volume.asp

LRGhost
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Re: 3.1/174 (retake), Decent Chance at NYU or just ED Penn?

Postby LRGhost » Sat Jan 05, 2013 5:22 pm

Because last cycle, they mostly kept LSAT medians but with less people applying still, LSAT is more valuable for ranking so it makes sense to care more about maintaining that than GPA.

delarge3
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Re: 3.1/174 (retake), Decent Chance at NYU or just ED Penn?

Postby delarge3 » Sat Jan 05, 2013 5:49 pm

LRGhost wrote:Because last cycle, they mostly kept LSAT medians but with less people applying still, LSAT is more valuable for ranking so it makes sense to care more about maintaining that than GPA.


I don't know how this math will hold up, guess we'll see soon enough.

I think the WL hypothesis is a good one (cold war style holdouts)- but ultimately we're going to see 1-pt drops for anything under Chicago (maybe with the exception of Berkeley, which is already relatively low), and maybe 1-pt/2-pt drops for T15-T30.

They were there once, they can be there again...

LRGhost
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Re: 3.1/174 (retake), Decent Chance at NYU or just ED Penn?

Postby LRGhost » Sat Jan 05, 2013 10:50 pm

delarge3 wrote:
LRGhost wrote:Because last cycle, they mostly kept LSAT medians but with less people applying still, LSAT is more valuable for ranking so it makes sense to care more about maintaining that than GPA.


I don't know how this math will hold up, guess we'll see soon enough.

I think the WL hypothesis is a good one (cold war style holdouts)- but ultimately we're going to see 1-pt drops for anything under Chicago (maybe with the exception of Berkeley, which is already relatively low), and maybe 1-pt/2-pt drops for T15-T30.

They were there once, they can be there again...


I think the T15 down will suffer more losses as T14s strive to grab all the 17xs. It happened a little bit this past cycle and I think it'll be heavier this one.

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Nickg415
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Re: 3.1/174 (retake), Decent Chance at NYU or just ED Penn?

Postby Nickg415 » Mon Jan 07, 2013 2:52 pm

If ED2 gives the same type of boost that ED1 gave I think you can get Penn. I was 3.19/170 and got accepted pretty quickly. Since your LSAT is so much higher and GPA just a bit lower I don't think your chances are any worst. If anything I would say they are better. Just be sure to write a killer supplemental essay and PS.

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Tiago Splitter
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Re: 3.1/174 (retake), Decent Chance at NYU or just ED Penn?

Postby Tiago Splitter » Mon Jan 07, 2013 4:17 pm

Nickg415 wrote:I was 3.19/170 and got accepted pretty quickly.

Damn. That's pretty huge.

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suralin
better than you
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Re: 3.1/174 (retake), Decent Chance at NYU or just ED Penn?

Postby suralin » Mon Jan 07, 2013 8:21 pm

Tiago Splitter wrote:
Nickg415 wrote:I was 3.19/170 and got accepted pretty quickly.

Damn. That's pretty huge.


:D

LRGhost
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Re: 3.1/174 (retake), Decent Chance at NYU or just ED Penn?

Postby LRGhost » Mon Jan 07, 2013 9:40 pm

FWIW and since today was the last day anyway, I decided to roll the dice. I'd like to live in NYC sometime while I'm still youngish and I'd kick myself forever if I didn't give myself a chance. I feel confident at getting at least a couple admits in the T14. I know I'll face WLs but I can handle that.




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