3.1/174 (retake), Decent Chance at NYU or just ED Penn?

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LRGhost
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3.1/174 (retake), Decent Chance at NYU or just ED Penn?

Postby LRGhost » Fri Jan 04, 2013 6:53 pm

First gen college grad, LGBT non-URM minority. I feel like I have a decent shot at Penn but I feel like an ED is maybe a lock? Looking at the last cycle for NYU, it seems like I'll probably get WL'ed. I have public interest work in my background and I'm sending a 'Why NYU' essay next week to address that as part of my desire for NYU. I will also be able to get another LoR from a boss from that work. NYU is my first choice but I don't want to RD both and wind up with neither. Is that likely to happen? Are we looking at a better cycle again?

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Rahviveh
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Re: 3.1/174 (retake), Decent Chance at NYU or just ED Penn?

Postby Rahviveh » Fri Jan 04, 2013 7:11 pm

I don't like your chances at either honestly, ED or not. You may want to consider ED UVA. If you have full-time WE, NW and GULC RD are good possibilities.

LRGhost
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Re: 3.1/174 (retake), Decent Chance at NYU or just ED Penn?

Postby LRGhost » Fri Jan 04, 2013 7:13 pm

ChampagnePapi wrote:I don't like your chances at either honestly, ED or not. You may want to consider ED UVA. If you have full-time WE, NW and GULC RD are good possibilities.


Wow, that bad? I thought I was decently set for Penn non-ED. I'm firing off apps to GULC and NW tonight. Do you think I'm out of RD V as well?

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Rahviveh
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Re: 3.1/174 (retake), Decent Chance at NYU or just ED Penn?

Postby Rahviveh » Fri Jan 04, 2013 7:16 pm

LRGhost wrote:
ChampagnePapi wrote:I don't like your chances at either honestly, ED or not. You may want to consider ED UVA. If you have full-time WE, NW and GULC RD are good possibilities.


Wow, that bad? I thought I was decently set for Penn non-ED. I'm firing off apps to GULC and NW tonight. Do you think I'm out of RD V as well?


You'll probably be waitlist bound. Your best shot at these schools is getting off a waitlist in the summer when they need to pad their LSAT median. But I think you got a good shot at NW and GULC RD, just get your app in ASAP.

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Re: 3.1/174 (retake), Decent Chance at NYU or just ED Penn?

Postby LRGhost » Fri Jan 04, 2013 7:20 pm

ChampagnePapi wrote:
LRGhost wrote:
ChampagnePapi wrote:I don't like your chances at either honestly, ED or not. You may want to consider ED UVA. If you have full-time WE, NW and GULC RD are good possibilities.


Wow, that bad? I thought I was decently set for Penn non-ED. I'm firing off apps to GULC and NW tonight. Do you think I'm out of RD V as well?


You'll probably be waitlist bound. Your best shot at these schools is getting off a waitlist in the summer when they need to pad their LSAT median. But I think you got a good shot at NW and GULC RD, just get your app in ASAP.


I'm comfortable riding the WL at Penn and NYU RD if I'm in at V or GULC or something. I expect that, honestly, and figure it's the uphill battle then of seeing if there's anything else I can do.

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Rahviveh
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Re: 3.1/174 (retake), Decent Chance at NYU or just ED Penn?

Postby Rahviveh » Fri Jan 04, 2013 7:22 pm

LRGhost wrote:
ChampagnePapi wrote:
LRGhost wrote:
ChampagnePapi wrote:I don't like your chances at either honestly, ED or not. You may want to consider ED UVA. If you have full-time WE, NW and GULC RD are good possibilities.


Wow, that bad? I thought I was decently set for Penn non-ED. I'm firing off apps to GULC and NW tonight. Do you think I'm out of RD V as well?


You'll probably be waitlist bound. Your best shot at these schools is getting off a waitlist in the summer when they need to pad their LSAT median. But I think you got a good shot at NW and GULC RD, just get your app in ASAP.


I'm comfortable riding the WL at Penn and NYU RD if I'm in at V or GULC or something. I expect that, honestly, and figure it's the uphill battle then of seeing if there's anything else I can do.


You got a great score on a retake so you've done the best you could! Just wait it out. I think you have a better odds EDing UVA than Penn, but if you're okay with NW and GULC then I would ED Penn to at least show them how interested you are, then wait it out in the summer.

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Doorkeeper
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Re: 3.1/174 (retake), Decent Chance at NYU or just ED Penn?

Postby Doorkeeper » Fri Jan 04, 2013 7:24 pm

There is a very low sample size for people with your numbers, but you have about a 35% chance at Penn and 20% at NYU. Penn doesn't straight up reject people with your numbers, so chances are good that you'll be WL. You might also ride the WL at NYU. I would ED to one of them, depending on your preferences.

Other than these schools, you have a good chance at UVA, Northwestern and Georgetown (Around 50-60% at each). If you don't get accepted to any of these schools, you will be WL at them. You also have a small chance at Michigan.

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Re: 3.1/174 (retake), Decent Chance at NYU or just ED Penn?

Postby LRGhost » Fri Jan 04, 2013 7:26 pm

Doorkeeper wrote:There is a very low sample size for people with your numbers, but you have about a 35% chance at Penn and 20% at NYU. Penn doesn't straight up reject people with your numbers, so chances are good that you'll be WL. You might also ride the WL at NYU. I would ED to one of them, depending on your preferences.

Other than these schools, you have a good chance at UVA, Northwestern and Georgetown (Around 50-60% at each). If you don't get accepted to any of these schools, you will be WL at them. You also have a small chance at Michigan.


So you think I won't be straight up admitted off the Penn ED? ED has past for NYU.

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sinfiery
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Re: 3.1/174 (retake), Decent Chance at NYU or just ED Penn?

Postby sinfiery » Fri Jan 04, 2013 7:30 pm

http://lawschoolnumbers.com/saintjake
http://lawschoolnumbers.com/whiteguy9


+1 to the advice ITT
also, I'd apply to WUTSL as a safety that will offer you decent $$$.

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cahwc12
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Re: 3.1/174 (retake), Decent Chance at NYU or just ED Penn?

Postby cahwc12 » Fri Jan 04, 2013 7:45 pm

ChampagnePapi wrote:I don't like your chances at either honestly, ED or not. You may want to consider ED UVA. If you have full-time WE, NW and GULC RD are good possibilities.


Are you sure? Even in this app cycle? Dec numbers are expected to reflect a 70% drop in 99%+ takers. I'd think he's a shoe-in at most of the T-14 outside CC.

If this were any other year I'd agree, but man, the consensus was that last year would be a shitstorm--I think this year is going to be a Category 7.

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Re: 3.1/174 (retake), Decent Chance at NYU or just ED Penn?

Postby LRGhost » Fri Jan 04, 2013 7:48 pm

cahwc12 wrote:
ChampagnePapi wrote:I don't like your chances at either honestly, ED or not. You may want to consider ED UVA. If you have full-time WE, NW and GULC RD are good possibilities.


Are you sure? Even in this app cycle? Dec numbers are expected to reflect a 70% drop in 99%+ takers. I'd think he's a shoe-in at most of the T-14 outside CC.

If this were any other year I'd agree, but man, the consensus was that last year would be a shitstorm--I think this year is going to be a Category 7.


That was what I was thinking. While I'm reluctant to get shut out of N and MVP by not EDing to P or V, I wasn't entirely convinced that that would happen. Then again, maybe schools are going to do some correction from what they learned over the last cycle? I thought I was at least even money at PV RD but I could very well be wrong.

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Rahviveh
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Re: 3.1/174 (retake), Decent Chance at NYU or just ED Penn?

Postby Rahviveh » Fri Jan 04, 2013 7:52 pm

cahwc12 wrote:
ChampagnePapi wrote:I don't like your chances at either honestly, ED or not. You may want to consider ED UVA. If you have full-time WE, NW and GULC RD are good possibilities.


Are you sure? Even in this app cycle? Dec numbers are expected to reflect a 70% drop in 99%+ takers. I'd think he's a shoe-in at most of the T-14 outside CC.

If this were any other year I'd agree, but man, the consensus was that last year would be a shitstorm--I think this year is going to be a Category 7.


No. Schools were mostly able to maintain their medians last year even after a huge drop. Yes, I think 170+ splitters will have better cycles but he still has a 3.1 and its going to be mostly a crapshoot in the T14.

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cahwc12
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Re: 3.1/174 (retake), Decent Chance at NYU or just ED Penn?

Postby cahwc12 » Fri Jan 04, 2013 8:02 pm

ChampagnePapi wrote:
cahwc12 wrote:
ChampagnePapi wrote:I don't like your chances at either honestly, ED or not. You may want to consider ED UVA. If you have full-time WE, NW and GULC RD are good possibilities.


Are you sure? Even in this app cycle? Dec numbers are expected to reflect a 70% drop in 99%+ takers. I'd think he's a shoe-in at most of the T-14 outside CC.

If this were any other year I'd agree, but man, the consensus was that last year would be a shitstorm--I think this year is going to be a Category 7.


No. Schools were mostly able to maintain their medians last year even after a huge drop. Yes, I think 170+ splitters will have better cycles but he still has a 3.1 and its going to be mostly a crapshoot in the T14.


Yeah but it's not like this is a drop from 2010, it's a drop from 2011, which was a drop from 2010.

I think his >75% LSAT will be worth a lot more than his <25% LSAT will be damaging. I'll still defer to you though because you seem much more knowledgeable. If I were a betting man I'd say yes to NYU and $ at Penn.

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Re: 3.1/174 (retake), Decent Chance at NYU or just ED Penn?

Postby moonman157 » Fri Jan 04, 2013 8:34 pm

cahwc12 wrote:
ChampagnePapi wrote:I don't like your chances at either honestly, ED or not. You may want to consider ED UVA. If you have full-time WE, NW and GULC RD are good possibilities.


Are you sure? Even in this app cycle? Dec numbers are expected to reflect a 70% drop in 99%+ takers. I'd think he's a shoe-in at most of the T-14 outside CC.

If this were any other year I'd agree, but man, the consensus was that last year would be a shitstorm--I think this year is going to be a Category 7.


Genuinely wondering where you're getting this from, because I want to believe it

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Re: 3.1/174 (retake), Decent Chance at NYU or just ED Penn?

Postby Tiago Splitter » Fri Jan 04, 2013 8:55 pm

moonman157 wrote:
cahwc12 wrote:
ChampagnePapi wrote:I don't like your chances at either honestly, ED or not. You may want to consider ED UVA. If you have full-time WE, NW and GULC RD are good possibilities.


Are you sure? Even in this app cycle? Dec numbers are expected to reflect a 70% drop in 99%+ takers. I'd think he's a shoe-in at most of the T-14 outside CC.

If this were any other year I'd agree, but man, the consensus was that last year would be a shitstorm--I think this year is going to be a Category 7.


Genuinely wondering where you're getting this from, because I want to believe it

It's more like 30%, not 70%.

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moonman157
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Re: 3.1/174 (retake), Decent Chance at NYU or just ED Penn?

Postby moonman157 » Fri Jan 04, 2013 9:11 pm

Tiago Splitter wrote:
moonman157 wrote:
cahwc12 wrote:
ChampagnePapi wrote:I don't like your chances at either honestly, ED or not. You may want to consider ED UVA. If you have full-time WE, NW and GULC RD are good possibilities.


Are you sure? Even in this app cycle? Dec numbers are expected to reflect a 70% drop in 99%+ takers. I'd think he's a shoe-in at most of the T-14 outside CC.

If this were any other year I'd agree, but man, the consensus was that last year would be a shitstorm--I think this year is going to be a Category 7.


Genuinely wondering where you're getting this from, because I want to believe it

It's more like 30%, not 70%.


That's still a pretty big drop. Where are these numbers (and the number of 170+ applicants this cycle) that everyone seems to be aware of except for me lol

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Re: 3.1/174 (retake), Decent Chance at NYU or just ED Penn?

Postby LRGhost » Fri Jan 04, 2013 10:35 pm

Tiago Splitter wrote:It's more like 30%, not 70%.


Do you think the cycle will be similar to last? Some schools maintained medians but it was at the cost of numbers at the ends. Any idea how many test takers/apps there were for this cycle compared to last and 17x scorers?

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cahwc12
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Re: 3.1/174 (retake), Decent Chance at NYU or just ED Penn?

Postby cahwc12 » Fri Jan 04, 2013 10:45 pm

moonman157 wrote:
cahwc12 wrote:
ChampagnePapi wrote:I don't like your chances at either honestly, ED or not. You may want to consider ED UVA. If you have full-time WE, NW and GULC RD are good possibilities.


Are you sure? Even in this app cycle? Dec numbers are expected to reflect a 70% drop in 99%+ takers. I'd think he's a shoe-in at most of the T-14 outside CC.

If this were any other year I'd agree, but man, the consensus was that last year would be a shitstorm--I think this year is going to be a Category 7.


Genuinely wondering where you're getting this from, because I want to believe it


You're right 170+ is 30%, 175+ is much larger than that.

viewtopic.php?f=6&t=170835&start=1025#p6186199

LRGhost
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Re: 3.1/174 (retake), Decent Chance at NYU or just ED Penn?

Postby LRGhost » Fri Jan 04, 2013 11:39 pm

cahwc12 wrote:
moonman157 wrote:
cahwc12 wrote:
ChampagnePapi wrote:I don't like your chances at either honestly, ED or not. You may want to consider ED UVA. If you have full-time WE, NW and GULC RD are good possibilities.


Are you sure? Even in this app cycle? Dec numbers are expected to reflect a 70% drop in 99%+ takers. I'd think he's a shoe-in at most of the T-14 outside CC.

If this were any other year I'd agree, but man, the consensus was that last year would be a shitstorm--I think this year is going to be a Category 7.


Genuinely wondering where you're getting this from, because I want to believe it


You're right 170+ is 30%, 175+ is much larger than that.

http://top-law-schools.com/forums/viewt ... 5#p6186199


If it's only a 30% drop in 17x from Dec compared to Oct, that doesn't mean much. Need to know Feb, June, Oct, Dec of 2012 compared to 2011 to make any sort of guess about this cycle compared to last.

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Tiago Splitter
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Re: 3.1/174 (retake), Decent Chance at NYU or just ED Penn?

Postby Tiago Splitter » Sat Jan 05, 2013 12:28 am

LRGhost wrote:If it's only a 30% drop in 17x from Dec compared to Oct, that doesn't mean much. Need to know Feb, June, Oct, Dec of 2012 compared to 2011 to make any sort of guess about this cycle compared to last.

It's a 30% drop in the number of applicants applying with 170s compared to the data collection point (early December) of last year.

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Re: 3.1/174 (retake), Decent Chance at NYU or just ED Penn?

Postby LRGhost » Sat Jan 05, 2013 12:39 am

Tiago Splitter wrote:
LRGhost wrote:If it's only a 30% drop in 17x from Dec compared to Oct, that doesn't mean much. Need to know Feb, June, Oct, Dec of 2012 compared to 2011 to make any sort of guess about this cycle compared to last.

It's a 30% drop in the number of applicants applying with 170s compared to the data collection point (early December) of last year.


Well dang, that's a lot of people.

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cahwc12
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Re: 3.1/174 (retake), Decent Chance at NYU or just ED Penn?

Postby cahwc12 » Sat Jan 05, 2013 10:33 am

LRGhost wrote:
Tiago Splitter wrote:
LRGhost wrote:If it's only a 30% drop in 17x from Dec compared to Oct, that doesn't mean much. Need to know Feb, June, Oct, Dec of 2012 compared to 2011 to make any sort of guess about this cycle compared to last.

It's a 30% drop in the number of applicants applying with 170s compared to the data collection point (early December) of last year.


Well dang, that's a lot of people.


Yeah, and that means to me at least, that if NYU (or any other top school) hopes to both avoid cutting class size and maintain median LSAT score, then a 99% LSAT score just got about 50% more valuable. Personally I think splitters are going to do very well this cycle. Unfortunately for splitters, most of that success might well come in the form of admittance off WL. Each of these schools is going to want to believe they are special snowflakes and they'll weather the storm, so we'll probably see as many WL as last year even with the decline in apps.

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Re: 3.1/174 (retake), Decent Chance at NYU or just ED Penn?

Postby LRGhost » Sat Jan 05, 2013 12:05 pm

cahwc12 wrote:
LRGhost wrote:
Tiago Splitter wrote:
LRGhost wrote:If it's only a 30% drop in 17x from Dec compared to Oct, that doesn't mean much. Need to know Feb, June, Oct, Dec of 2012 compared to 2011 to make any sort of guess about this cycle compared to last.

It's a 30% drop in the number of applicants applying with 170s compared to the data collection point (early December) of last year.


Well dang, that's a lot of people.


Yeah, and that means to me at least, that if NYU (or any other top school) hopes to both avoid cutting class size and maintain median LSAT score, then a 99% LSAT score just got about 50% more valuable. Personally I think splitters are going to do very well this cycle. Unfortunately for splitters, most of that success might well come in the form of admittance off WL. Each of these schools is going to want to believe they are special snowflakes and they'll weather the storm, so we'll probably see as many WL as last year even with the decline in apps.


I think they'll cut class size by maybe 10-20 tbqh

ercmilla
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Re: 3.1/174 (retake), Decent Chance at NYU or just ED Penn?

Postby ercmilla » Sat Jan 05, 2013 5:02 pm

Does this mean next cycle will be better than this cycle? I'm a 3.21/175 that is considering waiting next cycle.

LRGhost
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Re: 3.1/174 (retake), Decent Chance at NYU or just ED Penn?

Postby LRGhost » Sat Jan 05, 2013 5:09 pm

ercmilla wrote:Does this mean next cycle will be better than this cycle? I'm a 3.21/175 that is considering waiting next cycle.


For the foreseeable future, I think every cycle will be better than last.




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