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Not sure where your numbers will get you? Dying to know where you stand? Come have your palms read by your fellow posters!
thomasyin2
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Postby thomasyin2 » Thu Jan 03, 2013 2:56 am

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Last edited by thomasyin2 on Fri Jan 11, 2013 4:52 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Doorkeeper
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Re: LSAT 163, 3.4 GPA, what are my chances at..

Postby Doorkeeper » Thu Jan 03, 2013 3:00 am

UC Davis- Accept/WL
UC hasting- Accept
William Mary- WL
ASU- Accept
Boston College- Reject
Boston University- Reject
GWU- Reject

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Nova
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Re: LSAT 163, 3.4 GPA, what are my chances at..

Postby Nova » Thu Jan 03, 2013 3:08 am

Schools youre at or above the LSAT median:
Decent shot at Davis/Hastings. Youll probably get into one of the two.
Historically you have a great shot at ASU. You should get in.


Schools youre below both medians:
BC/BU/WM are very unlikely.
GW is not happening.

thomasyin2
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Re: LSAT 163, 3.4 GPA, what are my chances at..

Postby thomasyin2 » Thu Jan 03, 2013 3:28 am

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Last edited by thomasyin2 on Fri Jan 11, 2013 4:53 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Iroh
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Re: LSAT 163, 3.4 GPA, what are my chances at..

Postby Iroh » Thu Jan 03, 2013 4:03 am

Well, you're below their median LSAT and below (unless you rounded it down) their 25th percentile GPA. So what exactly do you have to offer GWU that they can't get from someone with better stats? You say you have strong softs, but don't mention what they are. You also say you have strong LORs, but what does that mean, exactly? Strong compared to whom? As for being bilingual, while it's interesting/useful, I don't know how you plan on selling that to the school. Do you speak Spanish, and hope to work in low-income immigrant communities? That's nifty and all, but I'm not sure it would give you a very significant boost. I imagine they have a number of applicants with the exact same plan. I'm also not entirely sure why being a triathlete matters for law school admissions.

Then again, maybe you'll charm their socks off. I can't know for sure. But it would fly in the face of TLS conventional wisdom.

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Nova
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Re: LSAT 163, 3.4 GPA, what are my chances at..

Postby Nova » Thu Jan 03, 2013 5:02 am

thomasyin2 wrote:Thanks for the help, appreciate them guys :) Even if you're 1-2 points below a school's LSAT median last year, no amount of soft besides really extraordinary ones could push it up enough for you to have a reasonable chance?

GWU 25,75 is 161-168, I'm within that range, trying to understand this machine here, why is it completely out of the equation?


Medians are the money makers because thats what affects USNWR. Adcomms jobs are on the line over medians and rankings, so thats what they care about. They dont care where you volunteered or how hard your classes were. They care about numbers. They are always monitoring and manipulating their medians.

Schools use the following practice to varying degrees. Schools like UMN and UVA swear by it. Lets use GW as the example.

GWs medians are 167 and 3.7x. notice how lopsided 161-167-168 is. They dont give a shit about 25/75.

GW is doing everything they can to fill just over half their class with 167s, 168s, and 169s.

A large majority of those 167/8/9s wont have 3.7x or better. So GW brings in a a bunch of 3.7x, 3.8x, 3.9x with 166s or below to counter balance them.

Typically, MOST of the class is at/above one median and below the other. They basically cancel each other out.

Then there are the at/above both median students who are typically on scholarships. GW doesnt mind giving at/above both median students $$ because GW wants to bring in some below both median students too (most of whom pay sticker, so it balances out the scholarships given to the at/above kids) . Those students are typically URMs or really special non URMs who have great accomplishments (like curing diseases), are famous, or just really special for some reason.

GW will manipulate their medians by having more at/above both median students than below both median students.

So lets just say:

35% at/above 167 with GPAs ranging from 2.7 to 3.6
35% at/above 3.7x with LSATs ranging from 155 to 166
(they cancel out)


17% at/above 167/3.7x. Their numbers are a combo within the range of 167 to 172 and 3.7x to 4.0
13% below both medians. Their numbers are a combo within the range of 155 to 166 and 2.7 to 3.6

Finally, lets say 2% of the 17% of at/above both median students have 167/3.7x

Thus, the median is steadily at 167/3.7x,

52% of the class is at/above the LSAT median
52% of the class is at/above the GPA median

In this hypo, you (OP) would be competing with URMs and amazingly super special nonURMs for 13% of the seats. Their URM status and amazing softs trump whatever you bring to the table (internship/work experience/grade trend/cool hobby/whatever) and you are left competing for practically no seats.


In conclusion, its all a giant game to manipulate medians by having applicants cancel each other out. If youre below both medians, you are competing for a very limited number of seats. If youre not a URM, famous, or really freaking special, youre almost certainly not getting in under both medians.

Hope that makes sense. Its kind of late.

thomasyin2
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Re: LSAT 163, 3.4 GPA, what are my chances at..

Postby thomasyin2 » Thu Jan 03, 2013 8:05 pm

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Last edited by thomasyin2 on Fri Jan 11, 2013 4:53 am, edited 2 times in total.

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Tiago Splitter
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Re: LSAT 163, 3.4 GPA, what are my chances at..

Postby Tiago Splitter » Thu Jan 03, 2013 8:10 pm

thomasyin2 wrote:Since GPA will not affect the equations you listed above, is it possible that a few points below median LSAT would have less of a deterimental effect than before since technically not "both GPA and LSAT" is below median. And the fact international applicants almost always pay sticker may or may not help?

It hurts even more because your LSAT is the only number that can help their medians. Get an above-median LSAT and you are in great shape because your GPA won't hurt you. Also international students can't get federal aid which is not a good thing for schools.

Lord Randolph McDuff
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Re: LSAT 163, 3.4 GPA, what are my chances at..

Postby Lord Randolph McDuff » Thu Jan 03, 2013 8:12 pm

Nova wrote:
thomasyin2 wrote:Thanks for the help, appreciate them guys :) Even if you're 1-2 points below a school's LSAT median last year, no amount of soft besides really extraordinary ones could push it up enough for you to have a reasonable chance?

GWU 25,75 is 161-168, I'm within that range, trying to understand this machine here, why is it completely out of the equation?


Medians are the money makers because thats what affects USNWR. Adcomms jobs are on the line over medians and rankings, so thats what they care about. They dont care where you volunteered or how hard your classes were. They care about numbers. They are always monitoring and manipulating their medians.

Schools use the following practice to varying degrees. Schools like UMN and UVA swear by it. Lets use GW as the example.

GWs medians are 167 and 3.7x. notice how lopsided 161-167-168 is. They dont give a shit about 25/75.

GW is doing everything they can to fill just over half their class with 167s, 168s, and 169s.

A large majority of those 167/8/9s wont have 3.7x or better. So GW brings in a a bunch of 3.7x, 3.8x, 3.9x with 166s or below to counter balance them.

Typically, MOST of the class is at/above one median and below the other. They basically cancel each other out.

Then there are the at/above both median students who are typically on scholarships. GW doesnt mind giving at/above both median students $$ because GW wants to bring in some below both median students too (most of whom pay sticker, so it balances out the scholarships given to the at/above kids) . Those students are typically URMs or really special non URMs who have great accomplishments (like curing diseases), are famous, or just really special for some reason.

GW will manipulate their medians by having more at/above both median students than below both median students.

So lets just say:

35% at/above 167 with GPAs ranging from 2.7 to 3.6
35% at/above 3.7x with LSATs ranging from 155 to 166
(they cancel out)


17% at/above 167/3.7x. Their numbers are a combo within the range of 167 to 172 and 3.7x to 4.0
13% below both medians. Their numbers are a combo within the range of 155 to 166 and 2.7 to 3.6

Finally, lets say 2% of the 17% of at/above both median students have 167/3.7x

Thus, the median is steadily at 167/3.7x,

52% of the class is at/above the LSAT median
52% of the class is at/above the GPA median

In this hypo, you (OP) would be competing with URMs and amazingly super special nonURMs for 13% of the seats. Their URM status and amazing softs trump whatever you bring to the table (internship/work experience/grade trend/cool hobby/whatever) and you are left competing for practically no seats.


In conclusion, its all a giant game to manipulate medians by having applicants cancel each other out. If youre below both medians, you are competing for a very limited number of seats. If youre not a URM, famous, or really freaking special, youre almost certainly not getting in under both medians.

Hope that makes sense. Its kind of late.


Outstanding post. Some schools are better at it than others, but every school tries do to something like this. Those mid-west schools are pros; how many years in a row has Minn's median and 75 been the exact same?

thomasyin2
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Re: LSAT 163, 3.4 GPA, what are my chances at..

Postby thomasyin2 » Thu Jan 03, 2013 8:19 pm

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Last edited by thomasyin2 on Fri Jan 11, 2013 4:53 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Nova
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Re: LSAT 163, 3.4 GPA, what are my chances at..

Postby Nova » Fri Jan 04, 2013 6:43 am

thomasyin2 wrote:Thanks for the replies. I think of it like, before I was low in 2 categories, now I'm low in one =/

Yeah, i think that being below just one median is better than being below two. I know of a few internationals in my class who fit that description. Major factors in their admission are presumably the reasons you said, they only hurt the LSAT median and they pay sticker.

Still, you would be admitted despite your numbers, and admission in general is unlikely. Consider that an above median LSAT/below median GPA student wouldn't balance you out.

Like Tiago said, with an at/above median LSAT (Davis/Hasting/ASU) and an international GPA, your chances would be better than applying with an American below median GPA. Would you consider retaking in February? You already scored well, but a few more points could be a game changer.
I know it was an excellent post, so good that I think it should be sticky. Answers a ton of questions. Anyone know what are the schools that are regarded to be doing the median game a lot? (all mid-west schools?)

Thanks thomas and LRM :mrgreen:

As LRM alluded to, a general rough indicator is when the 50/75 gap is narrow and the 25/50 gap is wide. For instance, UMNs 25/50/75 is usually 157-9/167/167-8. Their GPA 25/50/75 is usually something like 3.4/3.8/3.9.

For you, generally any school in a market you wouldnt mind living long term and has a 163 or below median is worth an app. SMU and UHLC may be good fits. Their job placement is better than Davis and Hastings . They are also major forces in their major markets (SMU,Dallas/ UHLC,Houston). They are ranked at about 50, but that doesnt really matter, job prospects do. They are very respected in their markets.

You are an applicant that should really blanket as many schools as possible (only the ones where you wouldnt mind living long term though). You can probably get some application fee waivers if you email a request to the admissions office and let them know your LSAT and that youre interested

thomasyin2
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Re: LSAT 163, 3.4 GPA, what are my chances at..

Postby thomasyin2 » Tue Jan 08, 2013 12:40 am

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Last edited by thomasyin2 on Fri Jan 11, 2013 4:54 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Nova
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Re: LSAT 163, 3.4 GPA, what are my chances at..

Postby Nova » Wed Jan 09, 2013 2:52 am

thomasyin2 wrote:I blanketed 20 schools from 20 -55...nearly have with fee waivers or free to begin with. How does that sound? Pretty much every school except about 15 such as American, Maryland and such.


Good strategy




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