3.64/166

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epgenius
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3.64/166

Postby epgenius » Wed Nov 07, 2012 2:00 am

So I just got my Oct 2012 score back and I got a 166-- I'm fairly disappointed with it. However, I'm not sure that I could improve upon it with the December LSAT as I only have 3 weeks to go and I don't wanna risk going backwards. I graduated from UC Santa Barbara last Spring, have a 3.64 and have a lot of internship and work experience as well as good letters of rec. What do you think are my chances at USC, UCLA or Georgetown? Thanks!

Gator_Law
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Re: 3.64/166

Postby Gator_Law » Wed Nov 07, 2012 4:49 pm

I would say 50% chance that you get into either USC or UCLA (possibly from the waitlist though). Probably out at Georgetown. You might as well apply to Berkeley also.

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TheThriller
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Re: 3.64/166

Postby TheThriller » Wed Nov 07, 2012 8:58 pm

Gator_Law wrote:I would say 50% chance that you get into either USC or UCLA (possibly from the waitlist though). Probably out at Georgetown. You might as well apply to Berkeley also.


You give horrible advice. OP is below GPA / LSAT median at both schools. Which means you aren't getting in. Nor are you getting into GULC. And Berk?! Are you kidding me? 170/3.8s dont get into Berkeley.

epgenius
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Re: 3.64/166

Postby epgenius » Thu Nov 08, 2012 1:45 am

TheThriller wrote:
Gator_Law wrote:I would say 50% chance that you get into either USC or UCLA (possibly from the waitlist though). Probably out at Georgetown. You might as well apply to Berkeley also.


You give horrible advice. OP is below GPA / LSAT median at both schools. Which means you aren't getting in. Nor are you getting into GULC. And Berk?! Are you kidding me? 170/3.8s dont get into Berkeley.


Yes, because the half of people who get in below median admitted levels do not get admitted. Your logic is flawless, thank you.

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TheThriller
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Re: 3.64/166

Postby TheThriller » Thu Nov 08, 2012 1:58 am

epgenius wrote:
TheThriller wrote:
Gator_Law wrote:I would say 50% chance that you get into either USC or UCLA (possibly from the waitlist though). Probably out at Georgetown. You might as well apply to Berkeley also.


You give horrible advice. OP is below GPA / LSAT median at both schools. Which means you aren't getting in. Nor are you getting into GULC. And Berk?! Are you kidding me? 170/3.8s dont get into Berkeley.


Yes, because the half of people who get in below median admitted levels do not get admitted. Your logic is flawless, thank you.


What are you talking about? Do you have any idea how this process works?

epgenius
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Re: 3.64/166

Postby epgenius » Thu Nov 08, 2012 2:29 am

TheThriller wrote:
epgenius wrote:
TheThriller wrote:
Gator_Law wrote:I would say 50% chance that you get into either USC or UCLA (possibly from the waitlist though). Probably out at Georgetown. You might as well apply to Berkeley also.


You give horrible advice. OP is below GPA / LSAT median at both schools. Which means you aren't getting in. Nor are you getting into GULC. And Berk?! Are you kidding me? 170/3.8s dont get into Berkeley.


Yes, because the half of people who get in below median admitted levels do not get admitted. Your logic is flawless, thank you.


What are you talking about? Do you have any idea how this process works?


Yes, yes I do... I also know that I'm not a lost cause at UCLA, SC or GULC. I know that I have a better chance at all three this year than years past and my chances are not 0% so please don't respond with such belligerence. I want constructive advice not crass exaggeration.

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Nova
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Re: 3.64/166

Postby Nova » Thu Nov 08, 2012 2:39 am

epgenius wrote:
TheThriller wrote:
Gator_Law wrote:I would say 50% chance that you get into either USC or UCLA (possibly from the waitlist though). Probably out at Georgetown. You might as well apply to Berkeley also.


You give horrible advice. OP is below GPA / LSAT median at both schools. Which means you aren't getting in. Nor are you getting into GULC. And Berk?! Are you kidding me? 170/3.8s dont get into Berkeley.


Yes, because the half of people who get in below median admitted levels do not get admitted. Your logic is flawless, thank you.


The vast majority of law students are at or above one median or the other. The median or above LSAT kids balance out the median or above GPA kids. There is a portion of the class that are at or above both medians. Those students are basically all on big scholarships. However many kids are at or above both medians, there are a little less than that many seats available for below both median students. Most of those seats go to URMs. Some go to REALLY REALLY special non-URMs.

Basically, your chances are extremely slim to none at the schools you named. It sucks, but thats how it goes. Retake, hit 167, and youre probably in at USC. Hit 169 and youre probably in at GULC/UCLA.

With a 166, youre on the outside looking in.

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TheThriller
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Re: 3.64/166

Postby TheThriller » Thu Nov 08, 2012 3:48 am

Thank you Nova.

OP, listen to Nova, he is a wealth of information and really knows his stuff.

Or he could be acting belligerently crass right now

Gator_Law
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Re: 3.64/166

Postby Gator_Law » Thu Nov 08, 2012 11:42 am

TheThriller wrote:
Gator_Law wrote:I would say 50% chance that you get into either USC or UCLA (possibly from the waitlist though). Probably out at Georgetown. You might as well apply to Berkeley also.


You give horrible advice. OP is below GPA / LSAT median at both schools. Which means you aren't getting in. Nor are you getting into GULC. And Berk?! Are you kidding me? 170/3.8s dont get into Berkeley.


He is slightly below median at UCLA but above the 25th percentile for GPA/LSAT. At USC he is at the GPA median and at the 25% median for LSAT. I'm not sure how you read that and come to the conclusion of 0% chance at both schools, even off the waitlist. I don't think he has any realistic shot at Berkeley and it was mostly a joke.

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WhiteyCakes
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Re: 3.64/166

Postby WhiteyCakes » Thu Nov 08, 2012 11:45 am

Retake

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TheThriller
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Re: 3.64/166

Postby TheThriller » Thu Nov 08, 2012 2:17 pm

Gator_Law wrote:
TheThriller wrote:
Gator_Law wrote:I would say 50% chance that you get into either USC or UCLA (possibly from the waitlist though). Probably out at Georgetown. You might as well apply to Berkeley also.


You give horrible advice. OP is below GPA / LSAT median at both schools. Which means you aren't getting in. Nor are you getting into GULC. And Berk?! Are you kidding me? 170/3.8s dont get into Berkeley.


He is slightly below median at UCLA but above the 25th percentile for GPA/LSAT. At USC he is at the GPA median and at the 25% median for LSAT. I'm not sure how you read that and come to the conclusion of 0% chance at both schools, even off the waitlist. I don't think he has any realistic shot at Berkeley and it was mostly a joke.


In my book a less then 10% shot at an off-waitlist acceptance, is the same thing as telling someone that they have a 90% shot at rejection. 90% might as well be 100% if we are talking arbitrary admissions policies. I checked the numbers on LSN, since 2006, only 1 applicant with OPs numbers hadn't been flat out rejected, the individual was waitlisted at USC and eventually rejected.

I'm being honest with OP, if he wants any of the schools he listed, he will have to retake.

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Nova
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Re: 3.64/166

Postby Nova » Thu Nov 08, 2012 2:43 pm

Gator_Law wrote: He is slightly below both medians at UCLA but above the 25th percentile for GPA/LSAT. At USC he is atbelow the GPA median and at the 25%below the median for LSAT.


viewtopic.php?f=2&t=191337

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Nova
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Re: 3.64/166

Postby Nova » Thu Nov 08, 2012 3:51 pm

You can write your own ticket to USC/UCLA/GULC and beyond by hitting median. On the other hand, with your current stats, all you can do is hope you are one of the lucky few who get accepted below both medians.

skri65
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Re: 3.64/166

Postby skri65 » Thu Nov 08, 2012 4:21 pm

Nova wrote:You can write your own ticket to USC/UCLA/GULC and beyond by hitting median. On the other hand, with your current stats, all you can do is hope you are one of the lucky few who get accepted below both medians.


Nova, genuine question here...do you think that law schools (mainly those outside of the t14, as their medians didn't seem to drop much last cycle) plan ahead of time for a decline in applicants? In other words, do you think schools ever realize they have less applicants and then manage their medians accordingly? For example, if apps continue to decline significantly this year, do you think a school would take the decline in apps into account ahead of time and accept people that are slightly under the previous years medians, because they don't expect to be able to maintain the last years medians?

FWIW, this seems unlikely, as schools would simply want to maximize their numbers regardless of # of applicants. But I figure you could provide some info on this..

Thanks in advance.

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Nova
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Re: 3.64/166

Postby Nova » Thu Nov 08, 2012 11:31 pm

skri65 wrote:
Nova wrote:You can write your own ticket to USC/UCLA/GULC and beyond by hitting median. On the other hand, with your current stats, all you can do is hope you are one of the lucky few who get accepted below both medians.


Nova, genuine question here...
1.do you think that law schools (mainly those outside of the t14, as their medians didn't seem to drop much last cycle) plan ahead of time for a decline in applicants? In other words, do you think schools ever realize they have less applicants and then manage their medians accordingly?
2.For example, if apps continue to decline significantly this year, do you think a school would take the decline in apps into account ahead of time and accept people that are slightly under the previous years medians, because they don't expect to be able to maintain the last years medians?

FWIW, this seems unlikely, as schools would simply want to maximize their numbers regardless of # of applicants. But I figure you could provide some info on this..

Thanks in advance.


Projections: viewtopic.php?f=6&t=170835

1. Im sure Adcomms are very well aware that applications will be down even further this year and are planning accordingly. There seem to be two main strategies, cut the class size or lower admission standards. Or worst case, both.

Based on running all the numbers, most schools should have a pretty good idea whether they will be able to hold on to their medians. The strategy each school emloys will differ based on their circumstance. USC/UCLA only had to cut their class size by less than 6% to maintain their medians last year. Its very likely theyll cut their class size by another few students to maintain their medians again this cycle. But UMN for instance faced a 16% drop in applicants, and accordingly, they cut their class size by 16%. Their numbers stayed exactly the same, 167/3.8. It will be interesting to see if schools who cut their class size big last year will be willing to cut their class even further to maintain their medians this year.

Last year, Out of the 13 schools ranked 15-30 we have data on, only 3 schools dropped their median LSAT (BC, Davis, WUSTL). However 12 dropped their class size (W&L is an anomaly). Seems like these schools are for the most part willing to cut their class size + buy high numbers with scholarships rather than lower their stats and risk dropping in the rankings.

When you go beyond the T30 (through the rest of the 2nd tier), the picture is much different. Most school's medians and class sizes are both in free fall. It is much more reasonable to anticipate these schools will continue to lower standereds in order to maintain class size.

2. I think the schools that are worried about a possible drop in their medians, but are still trying desperately to maintain them, will WL applicants on the cusp. I know several current 1Ls from last cycle who got off the GULC WL in the summer, presumably right after GULC conceded they couldnt hold on to their 170 median and maintain their target class size. All those current 1Ls had 169s. If a school knows hands down they wont be able to maintain their medians, its plausible they will target those just below the median early in the cycle.

In OPs case, its reasonably safe to say USC/UCLA/GULC's LSAT medians wont be dropping this cycle.




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