How Much Will the Decline in Applicants Affect The T10

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bobbyflayed
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How Much Will the Decline in Applicants Affect The T10

Postby bobbyflayed » Mon Jul 09, 2012 5:40 pm

I was reading online that the number of applicants/LSAT test takers have declined. This phenomena has been weighted towards those who score well on the lsat as opposed to the sub 160 test takers. How will this ~18% decline in apps affect the next cycle?

I'm really torn between EDing to Penn or just doing RD (hoping for a little money) on Sept 1st, waiting for money from some lower t14s and praying for NYU at the same time. The biggest thing is that I really dont want to go to michigan or UVA for MVP.

How are my chances at Penn with ED vs applying as early as humanly possible?

Stats:
Asian
3.62
Cancel/164/171
1 Year WE

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twenty
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Re: How Much Will the Decline in Applicants Affect The T10

Postby twenty » Mon Jul 09, 2012 6:02 pm

I'm too lazy to check Penn's medians, but if 171 is above median, ED will definitely help. Penn in particular is pretty protective of their yield.

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JamMasterJ
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Re: How Much Will the Decline in Applicants Affect The T10

Postby JamMasterJ » Mon Jul 09, 2012 6:06 pm

RD: likely in
ED: definitely in

bobbyflayed
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Re: How Much Will the Decline in Applicants Affect The T10

Postby bobbyflayed » Mon Jul 09, 2012 6:52 pm

JamMasterJ wrote:RD: likely in
ED: definitely in


does likely mean slightly favorable odds like 55/45 or better? I'm scared of not getting Penn but I really dont want to screw myself if I get lucky and some lower t14 throws me a lot of money when I negotiate.

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No13baby
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Re: How Much Will the Decline in Applicants Affect The T10

Postby No13baby » Mon Jul 09, 2012 7:21 pm

bobbyflayed wrote:
JamMasterJ wrote:RD: likely in
ED: definitely in


does likely mean slightly favorable odds like 55/45 or better? I'm scared of not getting Penn but I really dont want to screw myself if I get lucky and some lower t14 throws me a lot of money when I negotiate.

Penn was unwilling to negotiate with anything below MVB, in my experience. I had a generous offer from Northwestern but they didn't consider it.

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2014
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Re: How Much Will the Decline in Applicants Affect The T10

Postby 2014 » Mon Jul 09, 2012 7:32 pm

Don't ED, 170+ scores are a progressively hotter commodity and your GPA isn't shit. You stand a good shot at money that can be used to leverage Penn should they not give you any initially. You are in good shape for NYU based on this year as well, and next year shouldn't conceivably be any more competitive.

bobbyflayed
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Re: How Much Will the Decline in Applicants Affect The T10

Postby bobbyflayed » Mon Jul 09, 2012 7:35 pm

Considering the 3take, is it possible I get outright rejected?

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JDizzle2015
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Re: How Much Will the Decline in Applicants Affect The T10

Postby JDizzle2015 » Mon Jul 09, 2012 7:43 pm

OP, I had similar numbers and feel lucky to have gotten in because Penn's LSN looks like a crap shoot to me for our stats. They do favor their EDs so if you really want Penn, an ED would probably be the way to do it.

You mentioned "praying" for NYU. If you prefer NYU over Penn for reasons other than US News rankings, you should ED NYU.

No13baby wrote:Penn was unwilling to negotiate with anything below MVB, in my experience. I had a generous offer from Northwestern but they didn't consider it.

Me too! Was bummed.

ETA: Penn basically said, "Well, we're better." haha it worked on me I guess.

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JamMasterJ
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Re: How Much Will the Decline in Applicants Affect The T10

Postby JamMasterJ » Mon Jul 09, 2012 8:34 pm

JDizzle2015 wrote:OP, I had similar numbers and feel lucky to have gotten in because Penn's LSN looks like a crap shoot to me for our stats. They do favor their EDs so if you really want Penn, an ED would probably be the way to do it.

You mentioned "praying" for NYU. If you prefer NYU over Penn for reasons other than US News rankings, you should ED NYU.

No13baby wrote:Penn was unwilling to negotiate with anything below MVB, in my experience. I had a generous offer from Northwestern but they didn't consider it.

Me too! Was bummed.

ETA: Penn basically said, "Well, we're better." haha it worked on me I guess.

NYU ED is gonna be tough because OP's below our median. That's the main reason I think he should go for Penn. It's a crapshoot as to whether he's getting into CCN, and Penn could WL him if he applies RD. But ED is almost a lock. I'd rather have the virtual guarantee of Penn than the small chance at the T6 with a serious likelihood of ending up in a worse position than Penn at sticker. There's not even a guarantee of money at the lower T14

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Re: How Much Will the Decline in Applicants Affect The T10

Postby bobbyflayed » Mon Jul 09, 2012 8:42 pm

JamMasterJ wrote:
JDizzle2015 wrote:OP, I had similar numbers and feel lucky to have gotten in because Penn's LSN looks like a crap shoot to me for our stats. They do favor their EDs so if you really want Penn, an ED would probably be the way to do it.

You mentioned "praying" for NYU. If you prefer NYU over Penn for reasons other than US News rankings, you should ED NYU.

No13baby wrote:Penn was unwilling to negotiate with anything below MVB, in my experience. I had a generous offer from Northwestern but they didn't consider it.

Me too! Was bummed.

ETA: Penn basically said, "Well, we're better." haha it worked on me I guess.

NYU ED is gonna be tough because OP's below our median. That's the main reason I think he should go for Penn. It's a crapshoot as to whether he's getting into CCN, and Penn could WL him if he applies RD. But ED is almost a lock. I'd rather have the virtual guarantee of Penn than the small chance at the T6 with a serious likelihood of ending up in a worse position than Penn at sticker. There's not even a guarantee of money at the lower T14


Is the info accurate at http://www.mylsn.info? I know the sample size is small but it seems like I have a good shot? There is only one ED in the sample, a reject at Chicago. Do you guys think the next cycle will be better or worse?

http://myLSN.info/dispresults.php?usegetdata=1&lsatlow=170&lsathigh=171&gpalow=3.6&gpahigh=3.62&cycles1=1011&cycles2=1112&urm=Exclude&wlisdeny=Yes&submittedtime=early&ed=Included

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JamMasterJ
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Re: How Much Will the Decline in Applicants Affect The T10

Postby JamMasterJ » Mon Jul 09, 2012 8:48 pm

just look at this graph
and this
it makes me really hesitant to say that an ED is gonna do it for you, whereas I'm comfortable saying it will get you into Penn

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Re: How Much Will the Decline in Applicants Affect The T10

Postby bobbyflayed » Mon Jul 09, 2012 9:05 pm

JamMasterJ wrote:just look at this graph
and this
it makes me really hesitant to say that an ED is gonna do it for you, whereas I'm comfortable saying it will get you into Penn


My whole issue with EDing Penn is the possibility of getting money at M or Gtown or Cornell and using that as leverage. How much more is Penn worth?

Furthermore, I would be really irritated if I magically got into NYU and I ED'd to Penn. That's why I was curious as to how the decline of high LSAT applicants affects admissions in the t10.

source: http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/04/the-wrong-people-have-stopped-applying-to-law-school/255685/

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Tiago Splitter
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Re: How Much Will the Decline in Applicants Affect The T10

Postby Tiago Splitter » Mon Jul 09, 2012 9:12 pm

bobbyflayed wrote:Furthermore, I would be really irritated if I magically got into NYU and I ED'd to Penn.


You should ED NYU.

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Re: How Much Will the Decline in Applicants Affect The T10

Postby Ruxin1 » Mon Jul 09, 2012 9:14 pm

bobbyflayed wrote:Furthermore, I would be really irritated if I magically got into NYU and I ED'd to Penn.




But aren't they peers?

/endtrolling

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JamMasterJ
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Re: How Much Will the Decline in Applicants Affect The T10

Postby JamMasterJ » Mon Jul 09, 2012 9:58 pm

Ruxin1 wrote:
bobbyflayed wrote:Furthermore, I would be really irritated if I magically got into NYU and I ED'd to Penn.




But aren't they peers?

/endtrolling

for most things, they are pretty damn close, and this is coming from someone on the NYU side.

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Re: How Much Will the Decline in Applicants Affect The T10

Postby bobbyflayed » Mon Jul 09, 2012 10:07 pm

Is Penn worth sticker?

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Ruxin1
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Re: How Much Will the Decline in Applicants Affect The T10

Postby Ruxin1 » Mon Jul 09, 2012 10:12 pm

bobbyflayed wrote:Is Penn worth sticker?


It depends on your career goals, risk aversion, ability to grind out biglaw for 5+ years (assuming you don't strike out)...

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Re: How Much Will the Decline in Applicants Affect The T10

Postby bobbyflayed » Mon Jul 09, 2012 10:20 pm

I'm shooting to get back to California and I saw 88 Calfirms listed at OCI. Would the relative rarity of my goals vs NYC ambitions make me less likely to strike out?

How much of the class strikes out?

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Re: How Much Will the Decline in Applicants Affect The T10

Postby 2014 » Tue Jul 10, 2012 12:07 am

I still don't think he is a crapshoot for NYU, I think an acceptance is probable though it comes off the WL.

There are more accepts than WLs for 3.6 to Median/171s and there is a good chance that several of the WLs that are there didn't play the LOCI game. NYU let in a boat load off the WL this year and no reason to think next year is any more competitive.

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JamMasterJ
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Re: How Much Will the Decline in Applicants Affect The T10

Postby JamMasterJ » Tue Jul 10, 2012 12:32 am

bobbyflayed wrote:I'm shooting to get back to California and I saw 88 Calfirms listed at OCI. Would the relative rarity of my goals vs NYC ambitions make me less likely to strike out?

How much of the class strikes out?

Oh, you want Cali? Def ED here.
Are you willing to sit out a year if you don't get either NYU or Penn, or a lower T14 with serious cash?

bobbyflayed
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Re: How Much Will the Decline in Applicants Affect The T10

Postby bobbyflayed » Tue Jul 10, 2012 12:37 am

Hell no, I've already been out a year. I was supposed to go to Hastings with $ and then I got a 171. It's now or bust.

By here do you mean NYU or Penn? Either way I thought their California placement was the same?

I'm sure your experience outweighs the random things I've heard on the internet though, I'd really like to know if you see differently.

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Re: How Much Will the Decline in Applicants Affect The T10

Postby pupshaw » Tue Jul 10, 2012 5:42 pm

Tiago Splitter wrote:
bobbyflayed wrote:Furthermore, I would be really irritated if I magically got into NYU and I ED'd to Penn.


You should ED NYU.

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Re: How Much Will the Decline in Applicants Affect The T10

Postby HeavenWood » Tue Jul 10, 2012 6:17 pm

JamMasterJ wrote:
Ruxin1 wrote:
bobbyflayed wrote:Furthermore, I would be really irritated if I magically got into NYU and I ED'd to Penn.




But aren't they peers?

/endtrolling

for most things, they are pretty damn close, and this is coming from someone on the NYU side.

Other than NYC placement, where NYU has an edge for obvious reasons, they're peers. But $$ at Penn >> sticker at NYU, even for NYC.

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Re: How Much Will the Decline in Applicants Affect The T10

Postby NJPitcher » Wed Jul 11, 2012 2:18 pm

bobbyflayed wrote:I was reading online that the number of applicants/LSAT test takers have declined. This phenomena has been weighted towards those who score well on the lsat as opposed to the sub 160 test takers.


Isn't this test standardized? As in, give or take the same percentage of people will score 160+ relative to 160-, year to year, regardless of how many people take the test? Or do I not understand how these tests get scored...

I'll edit this before it gets misinterpreted: Yes I know what OP is trying to say is that a lot of the smarter test takers are opting out of law school leaving the LSAT pool dumber on a whole (note: for simplicity's sake we're using smarter and dumber as higher/lower LSAT scores, I don't want a discussion regarding how well LSAT correlates to intelligence, this just makes the conversation easier). Regardless, even if you took one LSATs pool of takers and lopped off everyone who scored above 160, if the remaining test-takers took it again and were the only ones doing so, then the 160s would now be the 180s, etc. So while the pool of test-takers may be dumber on a whole, the scores have no way of reflecting that.

I'll edit again. Wikipedia seems to indicate that the test's scores are predetermined - that before each test a certain number wrong will equate to a certain score (based on prior tests), and your percentile is not an actual percentile for that test but basically a weighted average of the past couple tests. So even if you're relatively smarter, you're being scored against the prior years averages. Factor in that there's 3(4?) tests per year, and things should normalize/adjust to the test pool pretty quickly.

Tl;dr I don't think it will make much of a difference, still normalized.
Last edited by NJPitcher on Wed Jul 11, 2012 2:40 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: How Much Will the Decline in Applicants Affect The T10

Postby JDizzle2015 » Wed Jul 11, 2012 2:24 pm

The test is normalized through the use of experimental sections. It's not standardized every time it is administered. There's a lag w/r/t percentiles.




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