170/3.75; chances?

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jjcheng
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170/3.75; chances?

Postby jjcheng » Fri Aug 19, 2011 3:24 am

Hards: 170/3.75. Dean's list with distinction, that is top 3% in my program: Economics at Queen's University (Canada).

Softs: Bilingual, born in China, currently teaching English/brushing up on Chinese in China. Editor and then Director of bilingual publication on Campus. Chair of orientation committee and some other extra-curricular/work-experience. Interned at a Chinese law firm last summer. LOR from Partner of law firm, expect another from prominent Economic professor. Writing PS on "bridging the gap" between cultures, want to work in international/Chinese related corporate law.

Applying to:
Harvard
Columbia (ED)
Chicago
Pennsylvania
Michigan
Cornell
---------
Toronto
UBC
Queen's

Predict my cycle please (bonus points for Canadian schools). Thank you!

admisionquestion
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Re: 170/3.75; chances?

Postby admisionquestion » Fri Aug 19, 2011 9:37 am

jjcheng wrote:Hards: 170/3.75. Dean's list with distinction, that is top 3% in my program: Economics at Queen's University (Canada).

Softs: Bilingual, born in China, currently teaching English/brushing up on Chinese in China. Editor and then Director of bilingual publication on Campus. Chair of orientation committee and some other extra-curricular/work-experience. Interned at a Chinese law firm last summer. LOR from Partner of law firm, expect another from prominent Economic professor. Writing PS on "bridging the gap" between cultures, want to work in international/Chinese related corporate law.

Applying to:
Harvard 10%
Columbia (ED) 35%
Chicago 40%
Pennsylvania 60%
Michigan 60%
Cornell 85%
---------
Toronto No clue
UBC No clue
Queen's No clue

Predict my cycle please (bonus points for Canadian schools). Thank you!


I am not saying your strategy is bad, but it is a tiny bit strange to ED CLS and then still spend your application cost on HLS. Plus you will feel like shit when they both accept you. Just my thoughts. I think ED is almost always a bad idea...

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bjsesq
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Re: 170/3.75; chances?

Postby bjsesq » Fri Aug 19, 2011 10:21 am

Exact same numbers 2 years ago with some solid softs of my own. Results:

In nowhere at CCN or above with a waitlist at Chicago. In everywhere I applied below, with the caveat that I didn't apply to Penn. Some $ from lower top 13 schools. I don't think you are getting Columbia or Harvard.

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Re: 170/3.75; chances?

Postby jjcheng » Fri Aug 19, 2011 2:29 pm

If I could ED at Harvard I could; Columbia is the hardest school (quantitatively) that has the ED option, so I picked it.

I know that my chances at Harvard and Columbia are slim, so might as well ED with the one that lets me.

Also, probably the best place to study Chinese law, outside of China, is Columbia. So even I did get into both, I might actually give Columbia the nod instead - but that's getting WAY ahead of myself.

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$1.99
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Re: 170/3.75; chances?

Postby $1.99 » Fri Aug 19, 2011 2:38 pm

lol whut? you don't study chinese law in a U.S. school. please don't tell me you are one of those international law wannabes.

bdubs
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Re: 170/3.75; chances?

Postby bdubs » Fri Aug 19, 2011 2:39 pm

Retake, but you probably won't get Harvard even if you have a 173+.

As is:
Harvard - out
Columbia (ED) - out
Chicago - out
Penn - possible
Michigan - possible
Cornell - in

I would guess you're pretty good at Canadian schools. IIRC Canada has less grade inflation, so your 3.75 is probably a pretty good GPA up north (right?).

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Emma.
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Re: 170/3.75; chances?

Postby Emma. » Fri Aug 19, 2011 2:47 pm

bdubs wrote:Retake, but you probably won't get Harvard even if you have a 173+.

As is:
Harvard - out
Columbia (ED) - out
Chicago - out
Penn - possible
Michigan - possible
Cornell - in

I would guess you're pretty good at Canadian schools. IIRC Canada has less grade inflation, so your 3.75 is probably a pretty good GPA up north (right?).


OP has above median GPA for both CLS and UChi, and above 25th% LSAT, so I think he/she has a shot at those schools... Maybe not a good shot, but still a shot. I can't see HLS happening though.

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bjsesq
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Re: 170/3.75; chances?

Postby bjsesq » Fri Aug 19, 2011 2:48 pm

Emma. wrote:
bdubs wrote:Retake, but you probably won't get Harvard even if you have a 173+.

As is:
Harvard - out
Columbia (ED) - out
Chicago - out
Penn - possible
Michigan - possible
Cornell - in

I would guess you're pretty good at Canadian schools. IIRC Canada has less grade inflation, so your 3.75 is probably a pretty good GPA up north (right?).


OP has above median GPA for both CLS and UChi, and above 25th% LSAT, so I think he/she has a shot at those schools... Maybe not a good shot, but still a shot. I can't see HLS happening though.


Since when did UChi's gpa median dip below 3.75? It was 3.8 our application cycle.

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Tanicius
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Re: 170/3.75; chances?

Postby Tanicius » Fri Aug 19, 2011 2:52 pm

bjsesq wrote:Exact same numbers 2 years ago with some solid softs of my own. Results:

In nowhere at CCN or above with a waitlist at Chicago. In everywhere I applied below, with the caveat that I didn't apply to Penn. Some $ from lower top 13 schools. I don't think you are getting Columbia or Harvard.


Same numbers as you, also didn't apply to Penn. Haha. Proudly additionally waitlisted at Columbia though. :lol:

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bjsesq
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Re: 170/3.75; chances?

Postby bjsesq » Fri Aug 19, 2011 2:54 pm

Tanicius wrote:
bjsesq wrote:Exact same numbers 2 years ago with some solid softs of my own. Results:

In nowhere at CCN or above with a waitlist at Chicago. In everywhere I applied below, with the caveat that I didn't apply to Penn. Some $ from lower top 13 schools. I don't think you are getting Columbia or Harvard.


Same numbers as you, also didn't apply to Penn. Haha. Proudly additionally waitlisted at Columbia though. :lol:


LAWL. Show off.

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Re: 170/3.75; chances?

Postby bdubs » Fri Aug 19, 2011 2:57 pm

bjsesq wrote:
Emma. wrote:
bdubs wrote:Retake, but you probably won't get Harvard even if you have a 173+.

As is:
Harvard - out
Columbia (ED) - out
Chicago - out
Penn - possible
Michigan - possible
Cornell - in

I would guess you're pretty good at Canadian schools. IIRC Canada has less grade inflation, so your 3.75 is probably a pretty good GPA up north (right?).


OP has above median GPA for both CLS and UChi, and above 25th% LSAT, so I think he/she has a shot at those schools... Maybe not a good shot, but still a shot. I can't see HLS happening though.


Since when did UChi's gpa median dip below 3.75? It was 3.8 our application cycle.


OP is around median at both and Columbia is known to have a fairly strong LSAT preference (not sure what OP's index is, but I doubt it is above the threshold). Chicago might be on the table, but I still think it's a big stretch.

http://www.top-law-schools.com/forums/v ... 2&t=128236

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iphone7
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Re: 170/3.75; chances?

Postby iphone7 » Fri Aug 19, 2011 3:00 pm

My numbers are pretty similar to yours (3.87/169), I'm planning on blanketing the t-14, and I'm thinking:
Yale-1%
Harvard-5%
Stanford-15%
Columbia- 25%
Chicago-50%
NYU-50%
Michigan-70%
Penn-70%
Berkeley-70%
UVA-70% (but I think it's probably 90%+ of getting at least one of MVPB)
Duke- 85%
Northwestern-85%
Cornell-95%
Georgetown-95%
and maybe
Vanderbilt-In w/ $$
WashU- In w/ $$

bdubs
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Re: 170/3.75; chances?

Postby bdubs » Fri Aug 19, 2011 3:04 pm

iphone7 wrote:My numbers are pretty similar to yours (3.87/169), I'm planning on blanketing the t-14, and I'm thinking:
Yale-1%
Harvard-5%
Stanford-15%
Columbia- 25%
Chicago-50%
NYU-50%
Michigan-70%
Penn-70%
Berkeley-70%
UVA-70% (but I think it's probably 90%+ of getting at least one of MVPB)
Duke- 85%
Northwestern-85%
Cornell-95%
Georgetown-95%
and maybe
Vanderbilt-In w/ $$
WashU- In w/ $$


You realize these are all crazy right?

1) Your numbers are quite different from OP
2) Your probabilities are just plain wrong

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Tanicius
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Re: 170/3.75; chances?

Postby Tanicius » Fri Aug 19, 2011 3:12 pm

bdubs wrote:
iphone7 wrote:My numbers are pretty similar to yours (3.87/169), I'm planning on blanketing the t-14, and I'm thinking:
Yale-1%
Harvard-5%
Stanford-15%
Columbia- 25%
Chicago-50%
NYU-50%
Michigan-70%
Penn-70%
Berkeley-70%
UVA-70% (but I think it's probably 90%+ of getting at least one of MVPB)
Duke- 85%
Northwestern-85%
Cornell-95%
Georgetown-95%
and maybe
Vanderbilt-In w/ $$
WashU- In w/ $$


You realize these are all crazy right?

1) Your numbers are quite different from OP
2) Your probabilities are just plain wrong



Except for when he measures 80+ % probabilities, they're pretty much all reasonable. Okay, sure, it's pushing it to give 50% chances at CC, but he's got a good GPA. Cornell and GULC are too optimistic simply because there could be something weird with his app that numbers won't excuse. It happens to more than 5-10% of applicants with those numbers.

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iphone7
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Re: 170/3.75; chances?

Postby iphone7 » Fri Aug 19, 2011 3:15 pm

bdubs wrote:
iphone7 wrote:My numbers are pretty similar to yours (3.87/169), I'm planning on blanketing the t-14, and I'm thinking:
Yale-1%
Harvard-5%
Stanford-15%
Columbia- 25%
Chicago-50%
NYU-50%
Michigan-70%
Penn-70%
Berkeley-70%
UVA-70% (but I think it's probably 90%+ of getting at least one of MVPB)
Duke- 85%
Northwestern-85%
Cornell-95%
Georgetown-95%
and maybe
Vanderbilt-In w/ $$
WashU- In w/ $$


You realize these are all crazy right?

1) Your numbers are quite different from OP
2) Your probabilities are just plain wrong


Really? I was thinking that his higher LSAT and my higher GPA would make them similar enough to discuss, and I have researched LSN a bit to come up with those probabilities. I realize that going above 80% on some might be a stretch, but that's just what I've gotten from LSN. What do you think they should be?

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Re: 170/3.75; chances?

Postby bdubs » Fri Aug 19, 2011 3:36 pm

iphone7 wrote:
bdubs wrote:
iphone7 wrote:My numbers are pretty similar to yours (3.87/169), I'm planning on blanketing the t-14, and I'm thinking:
Yale-1%
Harvard-5%
Stanford-15%
Columbia- 25%
Chicago-50%
NYU-50%
Michigan-70%
Penn-70%
Berkeley-70%
UVA-70% (but I think it's probably 90%+ of getting at least one of MVPB)
Duke- 85%
Northwestern-85%
Cornell-95%
Georgetown-95%
and maybe
Vanderbilt-In w/ $$
WashU- In w/ $$


You realize these are all crazy right?

1) Your numbers are quite different from OP
2) Your probabilities are just plain wrong


Really? I was thinking that his higher LSAT and my higher GPA would make them similar enough to discuss, and I have researched LSN a bit to come up with those probabilities. I realize that going above 80% on some might be a stretch, but that's just what I've gotten from LSN. What do you think they should be?


So not all of your probabilities are wildly inaccurate, but enough are that you should probably do some more research. Also, 169->170 is a big jump for some schools, but others it will have little to no effect. Same with the GPA differences, it's all about the medians.

Saying you have 1-5% chances at H & Y is not realistic. The people who get in to H & Y with numbers at or below the 25% LSAT generally have a pretty good reason to point to as to why they got in (URM status, outstanding accomplishments, astronomical GPA at a top school, etc..). If you have one of those, your probabilities are too low but if you don't then they drop to zero.

Also, pinning your chances at UVA to 70% is not realistic at all. Without ED or in state residency your chances are actually really low, with either of those you could bump it up to 90%+.

I could go through the rest of your list, but I think you can figure it out on your own.
Last edited by bdubs on Fri Aug 19, 2011 3:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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acrossthelake
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Re: 170/3.75; chances?

Postby acrossthelake » Fri Aug 19, 2011 3:42 pm

bjsesq wrote:Exact same numbers 2 years ago with some solid softs of my own. Results:

In nowhere at CCN or above with a waitlist at Chicago. In everywhere I applied below, with the caveat that I didn't apply to Penn. Some $ from lower top 13 schools. I don't think you are getting Columbia or Harvard.


Hm, from what I've heard from others about your softs I would've expected slightly better. *shrug* I guess they mean even less than I thought. Yeah, OP should expect something similar to this then.

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iphone7
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Re: 170/3.75; chances?

Postby iphone7 » Fri Aug 19, 2011 3:46 pm

Fair enough. I knew I shouldn't have posted percentages on here, because they were not scientific, but it's just what I was thinking to try to give OP my perspective. Sorry OP for derailing your thread.

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Re: 170/3.75; chances?

Postby jjcheng » Sat Aug 20, 2011 8:13 am

iphone7 wrote:Fair enough. I knew I shouldn't have posted percentages on here, because they were not scientific, but it's just what I was thinking to try to give OP my perspective. Sorry OP for derailing your thread.


Haha, np. I thought a flame war was going to break out. I was slightly excited for a sec...

bdubs wrote:Retake, but you probably won't get Harvard even if you have a 173+.

As is:
Harvard - out
Columbia (ED) - out
Chicago - out
Penn - possible
Michigan - possible
Cornell - in

I would guess you're pretty good at Canadian schools. IIRC Canada has less grade inflation, so your 3.75 is probably a pretty good GPA up north (right?).


My academic record is mixed. I started off poorly and didn't take school all that seriously. It wasn't until 3rd year that I really got my shit together - 4.0, which was good enough to be in top 3% of program.

The thing with Canadian schools is that we use percentages, and every school, hell every faculty has their own way of converting it into letter grades.

85% weighted average in 3rd year = top 3%, and since all my grades were at least A, LSAC converted into 4.0. Whereas other schools/faculties you would need a 90-95%.

Economics at Queen's is also no joke, very micro/math intensive. If that gives you any indication of what that's like.
Last edited by jjcheng on Fri Jan 11, 2013 2:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 170/3.75; chances?

Postby jjcheng » Sat Aug 20, 2011 8:17 am

Also, what about Berkeley?

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bjsesq
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Re: 170/3.75; chances?

Postby bjsesq » Sat Aug 20, 2011 8:45 am

acrossthelake wrote:
bjsesq wrote:Exact same numbers 2 years ago with some solid softs of my own. Results:

In nowhere at CCN or above with a waitlist at Chicago. In everywhere I applied below, with the caveat that I didn't apply to Penn. Some $ from lower top 13 schools. I don't think you are getting Columbia or Harvard.


Hm, from what I've heard from others about your softs I would've expected slightly better. *shrug* I guess they mean even less than I thought. Yeah, OP should expect something similar to this then.


I thought you were going a completely different direction with the whole "softs" thing. Glad to know I'm more than just some flaccid applicant.

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Emma.
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Re: 170/3.75; chances?

Postby Emma. » Sat Aug 20, 2011 9:19 am

bjsesq wrote:
acrossthelake wrote:
bjsesq wrote:Exact same numbers 2 years ago with some solid softs of my own. Results:

In nowhere at CCN or above with a waitlist at Chicago. In everywhere I applied below, with the caveat that I didn't apply to Penn. Some $ from lower top 13 schools. I don't think you are getting Columbia or Harvard.


Hm, from what I've heard from others about your softs I would've expected slightly better. *shrug* I guess they mean even less than I thought. Yeah, OP should expect something similar to this then.


I thought you were going a completely different direction with the whole "softs" thing. Glad to know I'm more than just some flaccid applicant.


I've heard a lot about your "softs" too. :wink: :lol:

About UChi's GPA range: OP, LSN has the wrong information. You are below both medians so you likely wouldn't have a great shot there.

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Re: 170/3.75; chances?

Postby FlyHigh » Sun Aug 21, 2011 1:59 am

Yes OP!

I'm from Queen's too, but Political Studies.

I say you're a sure thing at U of T and shouldn't even bother applying to Queen's (unless you want to stay in Kingston and do the 7 year gig).

Probably in at Chicago. I would say you have a fair shot at Columbia and Harvard is up in the air. It would be unfortunate if you got Columbia ED but would've been accepted at HLS in March.

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moopness
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Re: 170/3.75; chances?

Postby moopness » Sun Aug 21, 2011 2:11 am

This is all absurd, these posts are WAY too optimistic. Harvard is NOT "up in the air", it's on the ground. You have no chance. Columbia is extremely unlikely, as is Chicago and NYU. Columbia ED won't help (at all) either, so you should ED Mich instead because you could very well get rejected RD. But I know you won't want to do that, because you think you have a shot Columbia ED.

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Re: 170/3.75; chances?

Postby jlbk4 » Sun Aug 21, 2011 2:26 am

moopness wrote:This is all absurd, these posts are WAY too optimistic. Harvard is NOT "up in the air", it's on the ground. You have no chance. Columbia is extremely unlikely, as is Chicago and NYU. Columbia ED won't help (at all) either, so you should ED Mich instead because you could very well get rejected RD. But I know you won't want to do that, because you think you have a shot Columbia ED.


It's refreshing to see a nice dose of honesty. OP, you have great numbers but be honest, do you really think you could get into Harvard? Unless you are URM, you're not getting in without a 3.9+/175+. Not to put you down (I have a 3.63/170 so I'm not flaming) but I really don't think it's realistic. I would try to figure out which school you want to attend most (that you have a realistic shot at) and go from there.




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