Chances for T-14?

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Glock
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Re: Chances for T-14?

Postby Glock » Wed Jul 27, 2011 7:17 pm

bk1 wrote:
Glock wrote:Not really. On LSN 8/10 people got into Boalt with 167, 168 LSAT and a GPA higher than 4.1.


Holy fuck did you really comb all the way back to the 03-04 cycle to come up with 10 people who have those numbers? Suffice it to say, on LSN Boalt rejected more 3.8+/168+ applicants (aka people above both medians) this cycle than they accepted which isn't even something that Yale did.




Just several years. And I meant 4.0. Also, my arbitrary 4.0 bottom line is better than your 3.8 bottom line because it is above the 75th percentile.

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bk1
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Re: Chances for T-14?

Postby bk1 » Wed Jul 27, 2011 7:26 pm

Glock wrote:Just several years. And I meant 4.0. Also, my arbitrary 4.0 bottom line is better than your 3.8 bottom line because it is above the 75th percentile.


The fact that it is only 10 people and is spread across several years (small sample that really isn't comparable), on top of the fact that Berkeley is clearly blackbox-ish, makes me say that predicting a vehement "IN AT BOALT" is absurd for someone without good softs and one number that is borderline. Does OP have a good chance at Berkeley? I believe so but not so much that I'd say OP's shot is significantly better than 50/50.

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Glock
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Re: Chances for T-14?

Postby Glock » Wed Jul 27, 2011 7:31 pm

bk1 wrote:
Glock wrote:Just several years. And I meant 4.0. Also, my arbitrary 4.0 bottom line is better than your 3.8 bottom line because it is above the 75th percentile.


The fact that it is only 10 people and is spread across several years (small sample that really isn't comparable), on top of the fact that Berkeley is clearly blackbox-ish, makes me say that predicting a vehement "IN AT BOALT" is absurd for someone without good softs and one number that is borderline. Does OP have a good chance at Berkeley? I believe so but not so much that I'd say OP's shot is significantly better than 50/50.



I qualified it with randomness. I'd apply at ANY place where I was above the 75th for one and the 25th for the other. LSP agrees with me using their statistical model, which is prone to quirks, of course.

Unless the OP has a personal problem with Stanford not applying at there is moronic. Not applying at Boalt is a whole new level of stupid as well.

If you think I am giving false confidence that is fine. This guy needs some false confidence. He thinks is is out at HYSCCNB, but he would probably land at least 2 of them.

elgrancombo
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Re: Chances for T-14?

Postby elgrancombo » Thu Jul 28, 2011 12:00 pm

Upon reflection I think I'm going to retake the LSAT. Where I sit right now at 168, I don't really love my chances anywhere (would also like to get money somewhere in the T-14).

I only got 3 wrong in LR, all correct in RC, but totally sucked at games... there is something wrong with me when it comes to the games section, I freeze up and forget all the efficient ways of attacking that section. I recently got a (modest) raise at my crappy job, so I think hiring a tutor for a few sessions to really attack the games and build my confidence might be in order.

Would a 170/171 coupled with my 4.1 GPA solidify me everywhere below CCN in T-14 while also giving me an outside shot at CCN (I like Chicago and NYU, Columbia not so much)?

scammedhard
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Re: Chances for T-14?

Postby scammedhard » Thu Jul 28, 2011 12:09 pm

OP:
"elgrancombo" sounds Hispanic; are you a URM?

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Glock
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Re: Chances for T-14?

Postby Glock » Thu Jul 28, 2011 12:09 pm

elgrancombo wrote:Upon reflection I think I'm going to retake the LSAT. Where I sit right now at 168, I don't really love my chances anywhere (would also like to get money somewhere in the T-14).

I only got 3 wrong in LR, all correct in RC, but totally sucked at games... there is something wrong with me when it comes to the games section, I freeze up and forget all the efficient ways of attacking that section. I recently got a (modest) raise at my crappy job, so I think hiring a tutor for a few sessions to really attack the games and build my confidence might be in order.

Would a 170/171 coupled with my 4.1 GPA solidify me everywhere below CCN in T-14 while also giving me an outside shot at CCN (I like Chicago and NYU, Columbia not so much)?



This has got to be a flame. A 171, 4.1 is 75% in at SCCN., 50% in at H and Y. I would retake too, but I would also start my applications and hit them on SEPT 1. You could end up at SCCN with what you already have.

elgrancombo
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Re: Chances for T-14?

Postby elgrancombo » Thu Jul 28, 2011 12:13 pm

scammedhard wrote:OP:
"elgrancombo" sounds Hispanic; are you a URM?


Nope, my parents are from Colombia/Venezuela (Mexican/PR are only URM Hispanics), and I'm not Afro-Latino so I can't claim AA. I'm very sure about all of this from what I have read elsewhere... Really hope this thread doesn't deteriorate into a discussion of URM qualifications. I'm interested in the chance my #s get me.

elgrancombo
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Re: Chances for T-14?

Postby elgrancombo » Thu Jul 28, 2011 12:15 pm

Glock wrote:
elgrancombo wrote:Upon reflection I think I'm going to retake the LSAT. Where I sit right now at 168, I don't really love my chances anywhere (would also like to get money somewhere in the T-14).

I only got 3 wrong in LR, all correct in RC, but totally sucked at games... there is something wrong with me when it comes to the games section, I freeze up and forget all the efficient ways of attacking that section. I recently got a (modest) raise at my crappy job, so I think hiring a tutor for a few sessions to really attack the games and build my confidence might be in order.

Would a 170/171 coupled with my 4.1 GPA solidify me everywhere below CCN in T-14 while also giving me an outside shot at CCN (I like Chicago and NYU, Columbia not so much)?



This has got to be a flame. A 171, 4.1 is 75% in at SCCN., 50% in at H and Y. I would retake too, but I would also start my applications and hit them on SEPT 1. You could end up at SCCN with what you already have.


I'm a flame because I'm not getting all my info from LSP? I feel like their "Admit" criteria are ridiculously generous, especially after seeing people with similar numbers from the latest cycle getting rejected or WLed at a lot of the schools I'm looking to get.

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Re: Chances for T-14?

Postby scammedhard » Thu Jul 28, 2011 12:18 pm

elgrancombo wrote:
scammedhard wrote:OP:
"elgrancombo" sounds Hispanic; are you a URM?


Nope, my parents are from Colombia/Venezuela (Mexican/PR are only URM Hispanics), and I'm not Afro-Latino so I can't claim AA. I'm very sure about all of this from what I have read elsewhere... Really hope this thread doesn't deteriorate into a discussion of URM qualifications. I'm interested in the chance my #s get me.

Even though Non-Mexican/PR Hispanics are not URMs, and therefore don't get the full "diversity boost," "other Hispanics" do get a slight boost in most occasions (around +3 LSAT points). With that included, I think you have great chances with you current numbers. A retake, of course, never hurts.

Great numbers. Good luck!

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Glock
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Re: Chances for T-14?

Postby Glock » Thu Jul 28, 2011 12:21 pm

elgrancombo wrote:
I'm a flame because I'm not getting all my info from LSP? I feel like their "Admit" criteria are ridiculously generous, especially after seeing people with similar numbers from the latest cycle getting rejected or WLed at a lot of the schools I'm looking to get.



You are a flame because you are not applying at Stanford and you think that you would only have an outside chance at CCN with a 4.1/171. LSP is generous with their "Admit/Strong/Consider/Deny" decisions, but their percentages are pretty good. Importantly, LSN has too small of a data sample to reliabily predict as well. What you know is that people with your numbers are getting in.

With good essays you would likely land 3 or more YHSCCNB with a 4.1/171. As it is you have a really good shot at landing 1-2 with a 4.1/168. You have an INSIDE shot at Stanford from where you are. A MAJORITY of people in your situation would get in with decent apps.

Blanket the T14 now. Retake in October. See what happens with any of it.

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buckilaw
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Re: Chances for T-14?

Postby buckilaw » Sun Jul 31, 2011 11:50 am

Blanket the T-14, you should be able to get $$ somewhere. Also, if you could retake for a 170+ you would have very good odds at CCN, maybe even HYS.

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Strange
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Re: Chances for T-14?

Postby Strange » Tue Aug 02, 2011 12:46 pm

scammedhard wrote:
elgrancombo wrote:
scammedhard wrote:OP:
"elgrancombo" sounds Hispanic; are you a URM?


Nope, my parents are from Colombia/Venezuela (Mexican/PR are only URM Hispanics), and I'm not Afro-Latino so I can't claim AA. I'm very sure about all of this from what I have read elsewhere... Really hope this thread doesn't deteriorate into a discussion of URM qualifications. I'm interested in the chance my #s get me.

Even though Non-Mexican/PR Hispanics are not URMs, and therefore don't get the full "diversity boost," "other Hispanics" do get a slight boost in most occasions (around +3 LSAT points). With that included, I think you have great chances with you current numbers. A retake, of course, never hurts.

Great numbers. Good luck!


+3 LSAT points? That sounds like a lot. I'm an "other hispanic" (half South American) so if there's any more support for this that'd be great

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LaCumparsita
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Re: Chances for T-14?

Postby LaCumparsita » Tue Aug 02, 2011 6:46 pm

I have a friend who had a 4.09/168 and got into both Berkeley and NYU. I think you have a great shot at those two.

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LaCumparsita
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Re: Chances for T-14?

Postby LaCumparsita » Tue Aug 02, 2011 6:52 pm

And I'm also half South American. I think it's usually +3 for Hispanic URMs (Mex/PR). I'd say we can expect to get 1-2 points at best...

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bk1
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Re: Chances for T-14?

Postby bk1 » Tue Aug 02, 2011 6:53 pm

LaCumparsita wrote:And I'm also half South American. I think it's usually +3 for Hispanic URMs (Mex/PR). I'd say we can expect to get 1-2 points at best...


People trying to quantify URM boosts make no sense. It varies from case to case and is hard to pin down. Also people saying other hispanics get anything close to +3 points are delusional. Some might, but it is so rare I would just assume it doesn't happen since it probably won't happen to you.

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LaCumparsita
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Re: Chances for T-14?

Postby LaCumparsita » Tue Aug 02, 2011 7:02 pm

bk1 wrote:
LaCumparsita wrote:And I'm also half South American. I think it's usually +3 for Hispanic URMs (Mex/PR). I'd say we can expect to get 1-2 points at best...


People trying to quantify URM boosts make no sense. It varies from case to case and is hard to pin down. Also people saying other hispanics get anything close to +3 points are delusional. Some might, but it is so rare I would just assume it doesn't happen since it probably won't happen to you.


Well, there must be some quantifiable URM boost if AAs get into Harvard with low 160s but no lower than that. However, I agree with you in the case of other Hispanics. I was just approximating a minor boost of 1-2 points, but I think it's absolutely true that other Hispanics are evaluated on a case-by-case basis, without a quantifiable boost.

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bk1
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Re: Chances for T-14?

Postby bk1 » Tue Aug 02, 2011 7:06 pm

LaCumparsita wrote:Well, there must be some quantifiable URM boost if AAs get into Harvard with low 160s but no lower than that. However, I agree with you in the case of other Hispanics. I was just approximating a minor boost of 1-2 points, but I think it's absolutely true that other Hispanics are evaluated on a case-by-case basis, without a quantifiable boost.

Well it's something like 10 points for AA but again it is not rigid so it is pointless to go about quantifying it. Suffice it to say that URMs get a boost and the best way at seeing what it is is to look at LSN. Approximating a minor boost of 1-2 is misleading because it gives say a 3.5/169 hope at UVA when that person is almost assuredly out even as an other hispanic. Maybe in some cases it might help but in the vast majority it will not.

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Rock-N-Roll
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Re: Chances for T-14?

Postby Rock-N-Roll » Tue Aug 02, 2011 7:18 pm

Glock wrote:
bk1 wrote:
Glock wrote:
elgrancombo wrote:
I definitely don't have the softs... I'm not one of these reverse splitters who thinks Berkley is viable because I heard they like GPAs. I was just wondering if my numbers were competitive for Michigan, UVa, Cornell, Duke, etc. Would ED/EA make admissions more likely somewhere? I just really don't want to get closed out of T-14 or have to go below that with no $.



God I hope this is a flame. BERKELY IS FUCKING IN DUDE. You are above median on both and above 75 on GPA. There are people with 162s getting in with your GPA. There is some randomness but you are a very good candidate.


You are being way overconfident in your predictions.



Not really. On LSN 8/10 people got into Boalt with 167, 168 LSAT and a GPA higher than 4.1.


OP I'm not at all telling you not to apply to S/B. But I do believe Glock is wrong, and that an applicant's background and achievements count more heavily at these two schools than at some others. Good luck though.




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