Chances at t-14, AA male, 2.6, 176

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APimpNamedSlickback
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Postby APimpNamedSlickback » Thu Jun 23, 2011 2:32 pm

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bk1
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Re: Chances at t-14, AA male, 2.6, 176

Postby bk1 » Thu Jun 23, 2011 7:21 pm

APimpNamedSlickback wrote:it is unfortunate that your gpa falls below the psychological 3.0 mark.

you have a decent shot at uva, georgetown, and assuming decent we, nu if you ed. you have a bit better than a snowball's chance in hell of getting into nyu if you ed.

you'll probably get dinged everywhere else though. but i'd still apply to every t14 not named yale or stanford. good luck.


With work exp, he can get NU even without ED and I wouldn't call his shot at UVa decent. But other than that agreed on all counts (especially the you should apply to all T14's except Y/S).

lawgod
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Re: Chances at t-14, AA male, 2.6, 176

Postby lawgod » Thu Jun 23, 2011 7:38 pm

I'd say a pretty good chance. But I don't know much.

APimpNamedSlickback
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Postby APimpNamedSlickback » Thu Jun 23, 2011 8:06 pm

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bk1
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Re: Chances at t-14, AA male, 2.6, 176

Postby bk1 » Thu Jun 23, 2011 8:19 pm

APimpNamedSlickback wrote:i meant to qualify all of the schools i mentioned with "if you apply ED" instead of just NU. that was poor writing on my part. op doesnt have a good shot at any t14 that he doesn't ed at, but i still think he'd be 50/50 at gtown and maybe even uva without ed.

it blows my mind that someone smart enough to swing a 176 lsat score can somehow manage to get a 2.6 gpa. its really a damn shame that op's opportunities would have been sooo much better with even a mediocre gpa like a 3.2.


At least this last cycle NU has been the most forgiving for sub3's (assuming work exp). UVa/GULC (even ED) firmed up their 3.0 GPA floors whereas NU (regular decision) gave $30k to someone with 1 year work exp and similar stats to OP. I would say 50/50 at GULC sounds about right but I think your UVa estimate is outdated. Next cycle might be different because apps are falling in number rather than increasing but that's just speculation.

Heck with a 3.2 he would have had a fighting chance at Harvard, but I think it generally comes down to laziness for people who have sub3 GPAs.

YOUNGHOVA616
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Re: Chances at t-14, AA male, 2.6, 176

Postby YOUNGHOVA616 » Thu Jun 23, 2011 8:30 pm

with a outstanding addendum to prove you will not do sub 3.0 work in law school , a good ps , and moving diversity statement id would say someone would certainly bite in the t-10 maybe t6 , that Lsat for a AA male is just to hard to overlook

with entertainment law if your dead set on it id say take money from a place like USC or UCLA over a Cornell, Chicago, or Penn it really is about who knows you and would be willing to help you. The quality of law school will not mean much as your ability to be liked and trusted by ppl . If you know your not going to Harvard or Yale Id go to a law school in LA with some money

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Doritos
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Re: Chances at t-14, AA male, 2.6, 176

Postby Doritos » Thu Jun 23, 2011 8:36 pm

I sincerely believe you will get into most of the T14. Black males with a 176 is very rare. Apply to all of course. I would even go so far as to say that you do not need to ED to any of them. Schools care about medians. You are way above one for most and far below another. A lot of schools take AAs who are below BOTH medians. A 2.6 and a 3.2 are both going to be below a T14 median and will need to be made up by an admit with a GPA above the median. It doesn't matter. URM cycles are hard to predict and as such you will get wildly different and sometimes (oftentimes) wildly bad advice on TLS as far as applying as a URM. It's understandable because there are so few data points.

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bk1
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Re: Chances at t-14, AA male, 2.6, 176

Postby bk1 » Thu Jun 23, 2011 11:14 pm

Doritos wrote:I sincerely believe you will get into most of the T14. Black males with a 176 is very rare. Apply to all of course. I would even go so far as to say that you do not need to ED to any of them. Schools care about medians. You are way above one for most and far below another. A lot of schools take AAs who are below BOTH medians. A 2.6 and a 3.2 are both going to be below a T14 median and will need to be made up by an admit with a GPA above the median. It doesn't matter. URM cycles are hard to predict and as such you will get wildly different and sometimes (oftentimes) wildly bad advice on TLS as far as applying as a URM. It's understandable because there are so few data points.


Nothing supports this. Not a lick of evidence, anecdotal or otherwise, aligns with what you are saying.

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20121109
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Re: Chances at t-14, AA male, 2.6, 176

Postby 20121109 » Thu Jun 23, 2011 11:22 pm

bk1 wrote:
Doritos wrote:I sincerely believe you will get into most of the T14. Black males with a 176 is very rare. Apply to all of course. I would even go so far as to say that you do not need to ED to any of them. Schools care about medians. You are way above one for most and far below another. A lot of schools take AAs who are below BOTH medians. A 2.6 and a 3.2 are both going to be below a T14 median and will need to be made up by an admit with a GPA above the median. It doesn't matter. URM cycles are hard to predict and as such you will get wildly different and sometimes (oftentimes) wildly bad advice on TLS as far as applying as a URM. It's understandable because there are so few data points.


Nothing supports this. Not a lick of evidence, anecdotal or otherwise, aligns with what you are saying.


+1

I don't really know why so many people think that the OP is gonna dominate the T14. His GPA is too low and the only schools that he should shoot for in the T14 are quite limited. He should certainly apply to NU, UVA and possibly GULC...but aside from that, so many schools will see his 2.6 and reject/WL him. Yes, a black male with a 176 is rare, but that alone cannot compensate for a sub 3.0 GPA. To be honest, OP would be in a better position if he was a ~160/4.0 applicant. Most of the T14 have hard GPA floors and are more likely to be forgiving of a lower LSAT score, rather than a low GPA.

OP will still have a very good cycle, with money thrown at him if he applies to the right places. People telling him to blanket him the T14 and relax are giving the OP very poor advice. He will be left with very little options.

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Postby APimpNamedSlickback » Thu Jun 23, 2011 11:26 pm

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Doritos
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Re: Chances at t-14, AA male, 2.6, 176

Postby Doritos » Fri Jun 24, 2011 6:11 am

APimpNamedSlickback wrote:
Doritos wrote:I sincerely believe you will get into most of the T14. Black males with a 176 is very rare. Apply to all of course. I would even go so far as to say that you do not need to ED to any of them. Schools care about medians. You are way above one for most and far below another. A lot of schools take AAs who are below BOTH medians. A 2.6 and a 3.2 are both going to be below a T14 median and will need to be made up by an admit with a GPA above the median. It doesn't matter. URM cycles are hard to predict and as such you will get wildly different and sometimes (oftentimes) wildly bad advice on TLS as far as applying as a URM. It's understandable because there are so few data points.



1. don't sass me

2. i was essentially the op last year. in fact, i had pretty sweet work experience and solid essays to boot and my cycle was still kinda ridiculous. anyway, i did more than a little research on urm splitters, and believe it or not, those with super high lsats and low gpas don't do as well as you suggest. 3.5 / 162, for example, beats the hell out of op at almost every school. its true that there is no distinction between a 3.2 and a 2.6 for the purposes of rankings, but anything lower than a 3.0 seems to raise a massive massive red flag for top schools that is basically impossible to overcome. see, e.g. law school numbers.


Haha no sass intended. Maybe I'm wrong about what I said to OP. It just seems bizarre to me that a 3.2/163 is better than the OP. Plenty of AAs have high GPAs and relatively low LSATs and definitely aren't finishing at the top of the class. An AA with a killer LSAT, to me at least, seems to be in a better position to succeed and it won't hurt their rankings numbers. In fact, admitting this 2.6/176 will actually HELP their LSAT score which is something the vast majority of URM admits don't do. Like I said, there are few data points so it's hard to say exactly what will happen.

OP, apply broadly even outside the T14. What I did last year is sent emails to the top 30 or so law schools asking for fee waivers. I got plenty via LSAC but for the schools that did not give them to me I just sent an email asking. The school I currently attend gave me a fee waiver after a random email. I say do that, apply early, and you will get in somewhere

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KingMenes
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Re: Chances at t-14, AA male, 2.6, 176

Postby KingMenes » Fri Jun 24, 2011 10:06 am

OP, do everyone in this thread a favor and create a http://www.lawschoolnumbers.com account.

It would be tough to chance your cycle, even from the most experienced TLSers.
I don't think it is far fetched to say that many people are interested to see how your 2011-2012 cycle turns out.
I've viewed many splitter profiles on LSN, and your numbers are the extreme of splits when you factor in your URM-AA status.
From my understanding, around 100-115 AA score over 165 per year; let alone AA males. You may only be one of 20-25 AA URM to score over 170 out of 11k-14,000 AA URM test takers. You owe it to yourself to write a stellar PS, and have it proofread by professionals at your school and to blanket 20-25 schools in the Tier 1 that interest you the most.

Also, if you have a fee waiver through LSAC, I'd apply to any school that offered me a free app in the Top 50.

Good luck on your upcoming cycle.
Last edited by KingMenes on Fri Jun 24, 2011 10:17 am, edited 1 time in total.

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northwood
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Re: Chances at t-14, AA male, 2.6, 176

Postby northwood » Fri Jun 24, 2011 10:13 am

http://www.lawschoolpredictor.com/wp-co ... ograms.htm

that will help. but apply to whatever schools you like and see how it shakes out. use the summer to perfect all of your essays ( and do the optional ones) and submit those applications the first day possible. good luck

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bk1
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Re: Chances at t-14, AA male, 2.6, 176

Postby bk1 » Fri Jun 24, 2011 12:07 pm

Doritos wrote:Haha no sass intended. Maybe I'm wrong about what I said to OP. It just seems bizarre to me that a 3.2/163 is better than the OP. Plenty of AAs have high GPAs and relatively low LSATs and definitely aren't finishing at the top of the class. An AA with a killer LSAT, to me at least, seems to be in a better position to succeed and it won't hurt their rankings numbers. In fact, admitting this 2.6/176 will actually HELP their LSAT score which is something the vast majority of URM admits don't do. Like I said, there are few data points so it's hard to say exactly what will happen.


While from an intuitive sense about medians what you say does make sense. However in practice a lot of schools like to have a 3.0 GPA floor. I'm not saying what they do makes logical sense but it is how schools do it.

As for "there are few data points," I dispute that. There are definitely enough data points to give a realistic estimate of OP's chances. Could OP do better than predicted? Of course and that is why APNS, myself, and others all say to apply up and down the T14. But OP needs to add some regional schools in there as well because it is very possible for OP to strike out of the T14.

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20121109
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Re: Chances at t-14, AA male, 2.6, 176

Postby 20121109 » Fri Jun 24, 2011 2:02 pm

northwood wrote:http://www.lawschoolpredictor.com/wp-content/uploads/Law-School-Predictor-Full-Time-Programs.htm


Though I'm sure this link was provided in good faith, LSP is a very poor indicator for URMs, and even worse for URM-splitters. OP can play around with it if he wants to, but he should take each prediction with a pinch of salt.

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Doritos
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Re: Chances at t-14, AA male, 2.6, 176

Postby Doritos » Fri Jun 24, 2011 6:21 pm

bk1 wrote:
Doritos wrote:Haha no sass intended. Maybe I'm wrong about what I said to OP. It just seems bizarre to me that a 3.2/163 is better than the OP. Plenty of AAs have high GPAs and relatively low LSATs and definitely aren't finishing at the top of the class. An AA with a killer LSAT, to me at least, seems to be in a better position to succeed and it won't hurt their rankings numbers. In fact, admitting this 2.6/176 will actually HELP their LSAT score which is something the vast majority of URM admits don't do. Like I said, there are few data points so it's hard to say exactly what will happen.


While from an intuitive sense about medians what you say does make sense. However in practice a lot of schools like to have a 3.0 GPA floor. I'm not saying what they do makes logical sense but it is how schools do it.

As for "there are few data points," I dispute that. There are definitely enough data points to give a realistic estimate of OP's chances. Could OP do better than predicted? Of course and that is why APNS, myself, and others all say to apply up and down the T14. But OP needs to add some regional schools in there as well because it is very possible for OP to strike out of the T14.



Fair enough.

It never hurts to apply broadly especially when in such an unpredictable position.




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