Spliiter Chances at T13

Not sure where your numbers will get you? Dying to know where you stand? Come have your palms read by your fellow posters!

Chances at T13

100%: Definitely will snag one with early apps and an ED
7
19%
75%: Good shot, but by no means a lock
7
19%
50/50: splitter = crapshoot, always
11
30%
25%: Unlikely if not doing UVA or NU ED
10
27%
0%: No dice with those #'s, prepare for Wash U
2
5%
 
Total votes: 37

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sanetruth
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Spliiter Chances at T13

Postby sanetruth » Mon May 09, 2011 10:47 am

So as a splitter, I know my cycle is going to be unpredictable. I've been following some splitters with similar numbers on here and LSN and I can't say it has been very encouraging. Sure some people have done really well for themselves (multiple T10 acceptances without an ED app) while others with almost exact same numbers and having sent out their apps early are bombing (yes, I consider having Wash U as your best option with an LSAT above a 170 and a GPA above 3.2 'bombing').

So, in the spirit of torturing myself more, what do you think my chances of snagging Cornell or higher are, given the following (please read):

- 171 and ~3.25
- Will send apps out as soon as I can for each school (recs, transcript, etc are all already processed, will finish my essays this summer)
- Will ED to either Michigan or Penn (NO, i'm not going to ED to virginia or northwestern, so please avoid with replies of 'ED to UVA on 9/1 and you're golden' or the same for NU, there are personal reasons why i don't want to commit myself to those schools as an early applicant, but i will still apply regular decision. I know that means i'm out at UVA most likely.
- Will have about 3 years work experience by the time I begin school

Any thoughts/advice would be helpful

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Eugenie Danglars
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Re: Spliiter Chances at T13

Postby Eugenie Danglars » Mon May 09, 2011 10:51 am

I have very similar numbers and two years WE. I got in at GULC, NU, and Cornell. I got in with money at BU, GW, and a couple other places.

I applied after October scores were released (10/31), so it's not even necessary to apply September 1st. I didnt' apply to Michigan or Penn, so I can't help specifically, but I have a feeling you can get "Cornell or higher"

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sanetruth
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Re: Spliiter Chances at T13

Postby sanetruth » Mon May 09, 2011 11:12 am

Eugenie Danglars wrote:I have very similar numbers and two years WE. I got in at GULC, NU, and Cornell. I got in with money at BU, GW, and a couple other places.

I applied after October scores were released (10/31), so it's not even necessary to apply September 1st. I didnt' apply to Michigan or Penn, so I can't help specifically, but I have a feeling you can get "Cornell or higher"


hrm, thanks for the response.

This could just be me being paranoid, but I have a feeling that the difference between a 171 and 172 is actually pretty significant as far as splitters go (and especially regarding northwestern). Regardless, your results are still encouraging/helpful, and congrats!

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sanetruth
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Re: Spliiter Chances at T13

Postby sanetruth » Mon May 09, 2011 1:27 pm

More thoughts? I'd like to think that, contrary to what some are saying, my chances are a little more than 25% if not EDing to NU or UVA, but maybe i'm making a stupid decision?

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dpk711
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Re: Spliiter Chances at T13

Postby dpk711 » Mon May 09, 2011 1:35 pm

To be honest if you don't ED, your chances aren't great, although you do have a shot at some of the lower T13. Even for GULC your chances wouldn't be any more than 25% in my estimation. The lower T13, even Cornell, has a soft 3.5 floor for RD applicants. So although you have a shot, your chances aren't stellar by any means.

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sanetruth
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Re: Spliiter Chances at T13

Postby sanetruth » Mon May 09, 2011 1:48 pm

dpk711 wrote:To be honest if you don't ED, your chances aren't great, although you do have a shot at some of the lower T13. Even for GULC your chances wouldn't be any more than 25% in my estimation. The lower T13, even Cornell, has a soft 3.5 floor for RD applicants. So although you have a shot, your chances aren't stellar by any means.


Well i'm going to ED, just not to UVA or NU. Michigan has always been my #1, but they're jump in the rankings has made them more selective it seems. Penn has let in quite a few people with numbers lower than mine, and a few of them were even RD.

This may sound stupid, but because I know UVA would be close to a lock with ED, after visiting and realizing that I wasn't 100% enthusiastic about it, I feel like I would always be thinking about where I COULD have gotten in otherwise.

...but then again i'll really be kicking myself if I strike out due to not EDing at UVA, so its tough.

czelede
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Re: Spliiter Chances at T13

Postby czelede » Mon May 09, 2011 2:54 pm

In my opinion, the right choice here is to ED to the one of M or P that warms your heart more. You have a good chance and though there's a risk of a T10 shutout if your ED doesn't go through, I think the probability of that is low enough for your potential gain to be completely worth it.

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sanetruth
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Re: Spliiter Chances at T13

Postby sanetruth » Mon May 09, 2011 5:25 pm

czelede wrote:In my opinion, the right choice here is to ED to the one of M or P that warms your heart more. You have a good chance and though there's a risk of a T10 shutout if your ED doesn't go through, I think the probability of that is low enough for your potential gain to be completely worth it.


This is what I'd like to think, and I think the poll is already showing the unpredictable nature of my numbers. I would definitely prefer Penn or Mich over UVA and NU, so I think the risk is worth it, but if I thought I had at least a greater than 50% shot at Cornell regardless, I would feel way more comfortable making this decision.

As it stands, I've got 3 and a half more months to decide/go crazy deciding.

This would also be a lot easier if I thought GULC was even comparable to Cornell, which I don't.

TheFactor
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Re: Spliiter Chances at T13

Postby TheFactor » Mon May 09, 2011 5:59 pm

T13???

I see what you did there.

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Stringer Bell
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Re: Spliiter Chances at T13

Postby Stringer Bell » Mon May 09, 2011 6:09 pm

I know you said you wanted to keep NU and UVA out of this, but if you really, really want T13 sticker over money at WUSTL/etc., you might want to do an honest assessment of the rest of your application. If you feel like you have a really strong resume/ps/lor's you can probably feel alot more confident that between ED at M or P and RD at NU something will come through. If the rest of your app is pretty weak, you might want to revisit your position regarding UVA/NU.

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sanetruth
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Re: Spliiter Chances at T13

Postby sanetruth » Mon May 09, 2011 7:42 pm

Stringer Bell wrote:I know you said you wanted to keep NU and UVA out of this, but if you really, really want T13 sticker over money at WUSTL/etc., you might want to do an honest assessment of the rest of your application. If you feel like you have a really strong resume/ps/lor's you can probably feel alot more confident that between ED at M or P and RD at NU something will come through. If the rest of your app is pretty weak, you might want to revisit your position regarding UVA/NU.


Thanks, this is good advice. I do think my application is strong. I'm gonna spend the summer drafting my PS and do all the supplemental essays/Why X's to cover all my bases. Unless I have a nervous breakdown, or unless someone with supreme authority tells me with great confidence not to do it, I think i'm just gonna suck it up and go for M.

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Kabuo
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Re: Spliiter Chances at T13

Postby Kabuo » Mon May 09, 2011 7:52 pm

As someone who has so far bombed by your standard (and mine) I'll just post so you can use my profile as a cautionary tale. I have no full time W/E, what I think is a pretty average PS, and strong LORs/upward grade trend, and a higher LSAT. If I were you, I would ED to Penn instead of UM. This is anecdotal, but I have heard that UM told some of the people it WL'd last year that they would be considered strongly if they reapplied ED the next year. Also, UM only takes 45 ED applicants and rolls over the rest on Nov 15, which is a little late in the app cycle.

I do think the big advantage of applying ED to UM is that they KNOW they're my first choice. Even though I'm on the WL right now, they don't have to try and figure out how sincere I am when I tell them in a LOCI that I will absolutely go if admitted. I expect I would have gotten Cornell and GULC if I had applied earlier (applied in mid December), but I don't know if you're as supposedly automatic at those 2 with the lower LSAT.

Anyway, GL, and in case you do "bomb," WUSTL at 84k is really not a bad deal if you spend enough time rationalizing it, at least I don't think it is anymore.

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sanetruth
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Re: Spliiter Chances at T13

Postby sanetruth » Mon May 09, 2011 8:09 pm

Kabuo wrote:As someone who has so far bombed by your standard (and mine) I'll just post so you can use my profile as a cautionary tale. I have no full time W/E, what I think is a pretty average PS, and strong LORs/upward grade trend, and a higher LSAT. If I were you, I would ED to Penn instead of UM. This is anecdotal, but I have heard that UM told some of the people it WL'd last year that they would be considered strongly if they reapplied ED the next year. Also, UM only takes 45 ED applicants and rolls over the rest on Nov 15, which is a little late in the app cycle.

I do think the big advantage of applying ED to UM is that they KNOW they're my first choice. Even though I'm on the WL right now, they don't have to try and figure out how sincere I am when I tell them in a LOCI that I will absolutely go if admitted. I expect I would have gotten Cornell and GULC if I had applied earlier (applied in mid December), but I don't know if you're as supposedly automatic at those 2 with the lower LSAT.

Anyway, GL, and in case you do "bomb," WUSTL at 84k is really not a bad deal if you spend enough time rationalizing it, at least I don't think it is anymore.


It's not that I think WUSTL at 84k is a bad deal, really, its just that it is frustrating that there is a threshold for 171+ splitters that, when reached, puts them on the same plane as 168+ splitters. It would be nice to think that those extra three points meant something to my cycle other than being able to apply ED to NU and UVA, but they don't. You're either barely snagging a T14 or getting an almost-full-ride at a T18. Something about that doesn't make sense.

One thing I have noticed throughout this cycle is that W/E has been helping splitters, so I'm hoping that with 3 years and applying early in the cycle, I can boost my chances a tiny bit.

Are you holding out on your waitlist? It seems like there is a decent amount of waitlist movement this year, in general at least, I don't know about at Michigan specifically. Well, if so, good luck.

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Stringer Bell
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Re: Spliiter Chances at T13

Postby Stringer Bell » Mon May 09, 2011 8:13 pm

Kabuo wrote:Anyway, GL, and in case you do "bomb," WUSTL at 84k is really not a bad deal if you spend enough time rationalizing it, at least I don't think it is anymore.


The one thing is that no one can say for sure that the money will be the same next cycle. Splitters seem to be getting more money from WUSTL as well as some other places this cycle than they did the year before. I believe in the previous cycle 3.0ish 170ish was only getting about 10-15k per year there.

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Mike12188
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Re: Spliiter Chances at T13

Postby Mike12188 » Mon May 09, 2011 8:20 pm

http://lawschoolnumbers.com/HankMardukus

same numbers as you. Had a 3.25 when I applied, it updated to a 3.3 after Fall semester. I ED'ed to Penn and was waitlisted. Got G and C RD.

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Kabuo
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Re: Spliiter Chances at T13

Postby Kabuo » Mon May 09, 2011 8:28 pm

Yes, I'm holding on to the UM waitlist til the end. If Cornell accepts me off reserve, I'll have to do some soul searching since I assume I'd be looking at sticker. Otherwise, it'll be WUSTL. And thanks.

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sanetruth
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Re: Spliiter Chances at T13

Postby sanetruth » Tue May 10, 2011 10:02 am

dpk711 wrote:To be honest if you don't ED, your chances aren't great, although you do have a shot at some of the lower T13. Even for GULC your chances wouldn't be any more than 25% in my estimation. The lower T13, even Cornell, has a soft 3.5 floor for RD applicants. So although you have a shot, your chances aren't stellar by any means.


So (and this isn't meant to be combative), would you say that Mike12188's results are very unusual? I mean he got Cornell and GULC regular decision and straight out of UG. Surely my results, with the same numbers, should at least hopefully mirror that?

protein
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Re: Spliiter Chances at T13

Postby protein » Tue May 10, 2011 2:30 pm

sanetruth wrote:
dpk711 wrote:To be honest if you don't ED, your chances aren't great, although you do have a shot at some of the lower T13. Even for GULC your chances wouldn't be any more than 25% in my estimation. The lower T13, even Cornell, has a soft 3.5 floor for RD applicants. So although you have a shot, your chances aren't stellar by any means.


So (and this isn't meant to be combative), would you say that Mike12188's results are very unusual? I mean he got Cornell and GULC regular decision and straight out of UG. Surely my results, with the same numbers, should at least hopefully mirror that?


They aren't very unusual, but there's no guarantee that you'll get a similar cycle

Splitter cycles are really hard to predict, regardless of past results

czelede
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Re: Spliiter Chances at T13

Postby czelede » Tue May 10, 2011 3:02 pm

I ED'ed Penn originally (3.2-3.3 GPA, <2 years WE) because I was terrified of being shut out of the T10 and all signs were pointing to a Penn waitlist if I didn't. I really liked Penn and disliked M and V. But then there was a part of me that wondered about whether I maybe was too hasty - what if I didn't really want to spend three years in Philadelphia, what if I had the chance of a small outside shot at one of CCN? I didn't even know that I liked any school more than Penn at that point but there were too many doubts for me to feel comfortable locking myself in. So I withdrew my ED from Penn and sat through my application cycle RD everywhere. While that was risky and probably goes against every TLS nugget of wisdom for splitters, I felt immediately better after.

The point I'm trying to make here is just because some people have had better or worse cycles doesn't change what a personal decision ED is. I think part of you is looking for validation that ED-ing P or M is a good idea, that it's safe and you'll likely get it - I understand that, because I was in the same position (but with regards to RD) and spent God knows how long sifting through the same paltry data points I could find on LSN, alternating between false hope at great cycles (turned out to be an Intl applicant) and bemoaning terrible cycles. Ultimately, my opinion is that if you know you want M or P, just go for it. Yes, there's a chance it won't happen but I think you have a good enough shot that you shouldn't let the unpredictability of splitter cycles deter you from really trying for the school you want.

In the end, ED is a very good asset for splitters, but it's also a big commitment - and the last thing you want to do is ED to a school and then spend the rest of your life wondering if you could've gone to the school you actually wanted.

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Mike12188
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Re: Spliiter Chances at T13

Postby Mike12188 » Tue May 10, 2011 6:36 pm

protein wrote:
sanetruth wrote:
dpk711 wrote:To be honest if you don't ED, your chances aren't great, although you do have a shot at some of the lower T13. Even for GULC your chances wouldn't be any more than 25% in my estimation. The lower T13, even Cornell, has a soft 3.5 floor for RD applicants. So although you have a shot, your chances aren't stellar by any means.


So (and this isn't meant to be combative), would you say that Mike12188's results are very unusual? I mean he got Cornell and GULC regular decision and straight out of UG. Surely my results, with the same numbers, should at least hopefully mirror that?


They aren't very unusual, but there's no guarantee that you'll get a similar cycle

Splitter cycles are really hard to predict, regardless of past results


Let me add that I had a typo in one of my essays for Penn btw. For GULC I was one of the first to be offered and complete an alumni interview. Also I was surprised myself to be accepted to Cornell after being held from EA and not submitting additional info. Like the previous poster said, its really a toss up with splitters. If you want to play it safe and make sure you aren't shut out of the T10 then ED to UVA, but again who knows next year could be completely different.

bdubs
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Re: Spliiter Chances at T13

Postby bdubs » Tue May 10, 2011 6:50 pm

I think that Kabuo is right about Penn probably being a better use of ED if you are close to indifferent between the two.

I would wait to see what the 2014 medians look like before I made up my mind though.

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sanetruth
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Re: Spliiter Chances at T13

Postby sanetruth » Wed May 11, 2011 11:00 am

czelede wrote:I ED'ed Penn originally (3.2-3.3 GPA, <2 years WE) because I was terrified of being shut out of the T10 and all signs were pointing to a Penn waitlist if I didn't. I really liked Penn and disliked M and V. But then there was a part of me that wondered about whether I maybe was too hasty - what if I didn't really want to spend three years in Philadelphia, what if I had the chance of a small outside shot at one of CCN? I didn't even know that I liked any school more than Penn at that point but there were too many doubts for me to feel comfortable locking myself in. So I withdrew my ED from Penn and sat through my application cycle RD everywhere. While that was risky and probably goes against every TLS nugget of wisdom for splitters, I felt immediately better after.

The point I'm trying to make here is just because some people have had better or worse cycles doesn't change what a personal decision ED is. I think part of you is looking for validation that ED-ing P or M is a good idea, that it's safe and you'll likely get it - I understand that, because I was in the same position (but with regards to RD) and spent God knows how long sifting through the same paltry data points I could find on LSN, alternating between false hope at great cycles (turned out to be an Intl applicant) and bemoaning terrible cycles. Ultimately, my opinion is that if you know you want M or P, just go for it. Yes, there's a chance it won't happen but I think you have a good enough shot that you shouldn't let the unpredictability of splitter cycles deter you from really trying for the school you want.

In the end, ED is a very good asset for splitters, but it's also a big commitment - and the last thing you want to do is ED to a school and then spend the rest of your life wondering if you could've gone to the school you actually wanted.


I think this is very good advice. The fact that it is such a difficult decision for me is a clear sign not to mess around and just go for what I actually want. Then, I can hope for two things: 1) my reach to come through and/or 2) to have as good as cycles as others with my numbers have had, as a backup. In the meantime all I can do is make a damn good application. Thanks.

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sanetruth
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Re: Spliiter Chances at T13

Postby sanetruth » Wed May 11, 2011 11:02 am

bdubs wrote:I think that Kabuo is right about Penn probably being a better use of ED if you are close to indifferent between the two.

I would wait to see what the 2014 medians look like before I made up my mind though.


I'm not really indifferent to the two, but you make a good point about the medians.

I am thinking/hoping that there isn't a lot of upward median movement this year in general, because applications are falling back. However, the rise in Michigan's ranking probably means they got a better 'pick' of applicants than usual, which means theirs might.

When do the new medians usually come out? August?

bdubs
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Re: Spliiter Chances at T13

Postby bdubs » Wed May 11, 2011 11:17 am

sanetruth wrote:
bdubs wrote:I think that Kabuo is right about Penn probably being a better use of ED if you are close to indifferent between the two.

I would wait to see what the 2014 medians look like before I made up my mind though.


I'm not really indifferent to the two, but you make a good point about the medians.

I am thinking/hoping that there isn't a lot of upward median movement this year in general, because applications are falling back. However, the rise in Michigan's ranking probably means they got a better 'pick' of applicants than usual, which means theirs might.

When do the new medians usually come out? August?


I think median reports began to trickle in during orientation weeks last year, so late August.




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