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easternstandardtime1
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Postby easternstandardtime1 » Wed Feb 02, 2011 1:21 am

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Last edited by easternstandardtime1 on Sat Feb 05, 2011 11:49 am, edited 2 times in total.

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BlakcMajikc
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Re: Predict THE REST of my cycle?

Postby BlakcMajikc » Wed Feb 02, 2011 1:33 am

Columbia - 50/50
Yale - ding
Harvard - ding
Stanford - ding

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ndirish2010
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Re: Predict THE REST of my cycle?

Postby ndirish2010 » Wed Feb 02, 2011 2:25 am

I'm going to say in at CLS and perhaps a WL/out from Harvard. Out at Yale and SLS.

firemed
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Re: Predict THE REST of my cycle?

Postby firemed » Wed Feb 02, 2011 2:29 am

Yale might be possible if you wrote some amazing stuff, and have actual good softs (novel, nobel peace prize, cured cancer, etc.). But probably ding.

And the 50/50 Columbia I'd agree with.

Harvard- ding for sure.
Stanford- probably ding

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ndirish2010
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Re: Predict THE REST of my cycle?

Postby ndirish2010 » Wed Feb 02, 2011 2:32 am

You don't think the high GPA would make HLS possible? OP wouldn't hurt the GPA median, has a decent LSAT and is a URM.

firemed
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Re: Predict THE REST of my cycle?

Postby firemed » Wed Feb 02, 2011 2:34 am

ndirish2010 wrote:You don't think the high GPA would make HLS possible? OP wouldn't hurt the GPA median, has a decent LSAT and is a URM.



He/She would really, like seriously, pull down the LSAT. Yale is occasionally known for taking some strange choices.... but Harvard isn't known for that, and they will get URMs with 170s applying.

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ndirish2010
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Re: Predict THE REST of my cycle?

Postby ndirish2010 » Wed Feb 02, 2011 2:37 am

firemed wrote:
ndirish2010 wrote:You don't think the high GPA would make HLS possible? OP wouldn't hurt the GPA median, has a decent LSAT and is a URM.



He/She would really, like seriously, pull down the LSAT. Yale is occasionally known for taking some strange choices.... but Harvard isn't known for that, and they will get URMs with 170s applying.


It's a median...if OP scored 120 or 172, that is the same for Harvard's median. That's why I think there is a chance.

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BlakcMajikc
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Re: Predict THE REST of my cycle?

Postby BlakcMajikc » Wed Feb 02, 2011 2:39 am

I'd say 30% chance of in at H.
He will have to have the best softs for URM apps on the left side of the LSAT median. PS, DS, etc. have to be perfect.

easternstandardtime1
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Re: Predict THE REST of my cycle?

Postby easternstandardtime1 » Wed Feb 02, 2011 2:43 am

FWIW, I've been held at H.

And my softs are VERY unique...

(and thanks for the responses!)

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Re: Predict THE REST of my cycle?

Postby firemed » Wed Feb 02, 2011 2:50 am

ndirish2010 wrote:
It's a median...if OP scored 120 or 172, that is the same for Harvard's median. That's why I think there is a chance.



I saw a lecture on this once. Basically because lawyers aren't stats people they often end up taking a bunch of people right at their 25% and very, very rarely going below their 25th percentile.

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ndirish2010
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Re: Predict THE REST of my cycle?

Postby ndirish2010 » Wed Feb 02, 2011 2:56 am

firemed wrote:
ndirish2010 wrote:
It's a median...if OP scored 120 or 172, that is the same for Harvard's median. That's why I think there is a chance.



I saw a lecture on this once. Basically because lawyers aren't stats people they often end up taking a bunch of people right at their 25% and very, very rarely going below their 25th percentile.


That would mean that 25% of the people at HLS are right at their 25%ile score (what is it, 171?). I think there have to be a few below that (they all have 3.9x GPAs, of course). Maybe not many, but a few.

firemed
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Re: Predict THE REST of my cycle?

Postby firemed » Wed Feb 02, 2011 3:04 am

ndirish2010 wrote:
firemed wrote:
ndirish2010 wrote:
It's a median...if OP scored 120 or 172, that is the same for Harvard's median. That's why I think there is a chance.



I saw a lecture on this once. Basically because lawyers aren't stats people they often end up taking a bunch of people right at their 25% and very, very rarely going below their 25th percentile.


That would mean that 25% of the people at HLS are right at their 25%ile score (what is it, 171?). I think there have to be a few below that (they all have 3.9x GPAs, of course). Maybe not many, but a few.



TLS stats shows only 8 out of over, what, like 200 people got in below 170... and only one below 165. So possible, maybe. Likely, not even remotely. Maybe if his/her softs are what they say they are.

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jtemp320
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Re: Predict THE REST of my cycle?

Postby jtemp320 » Wed Feb 02, 2011 3:07 am

ndirish2010 wrote:I'm going to say in at CLS and perhaps a WL/out from Harvard. Out at Yale and SLS.


Wait everyone is predicting in or 50/50 at CLS for OP? I thought consensus from the Columbia thread was no acceptance at CLS at this point - probably waitlist/rejection - unless applicant went complete pretty recently...

is that incorrect? I'd like to hope so.... :D

PS OP - hard to predict URM cycles but looks like yours has gone great so far - good luck on completing the CCN sweep and snagging one of HYS...no matter what you'll have great options

jeremysen
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Re: Predict THE REST of my cycle?

Postby jeremysen » Wed Feb 02, 2011 3:13 am

ndirish2010 wrote:
firemed wrote:
ndirish2010 wrote:
It's a median...if OP scored 120 or 172, that is the same for Harvard's median. That's why I think there is a chance.



I saw a lecture on this once. Basically because lawyers aren't stats people they often end up taking a bunch of people right at their 25% and very, very rarely going below their 25th percentile.


That would mean that 25% of the people at HLS are right at their 25%ile score (what is it, 171?). I think there have to be a few below that (they all have 3.9x GPAs, of course). Maybe not many, but a few.


Are you sure this is how it works? I thought that the 25% score indicated the 25% lowest score in the class - similar to median

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BlakcMajikc
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Re: Predict THE REST of my cycle?

Postby BlakcMajikc » Wed Feb 02, 2011 3:15 am

jtemp320 wrote:
ndirish2010 wrote:I'm going to say in at CLS and perhaps a WL/out from Harvard. Out at Yale and SLS.


Wait everyone is predicting in or 50/50 at CLS for OP? I thought consensus from the Columbia thread was no acceptance at CLS at this point - probably waitlist/rejection - unless applicant went complete pretty recently...

is that incorrect? I'd like to hope so.... :D

PS OP - hard to predict URM cycles but looks like yours has gone great so far - good luck on completing the CCN sweep and snagging one of HYS...no matter what you'll have great options


I was wrongfully assuming not UR yet at Columbia bc thats the situation I am in (recently complete)... but you are definitely right if the OPs status checker is otherwise.

easternstandardtime1
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Re: Predict THE REST of my cycle?

Postby easternstandardtime1 » Wed Feb 02, 2011 3:16 am

Went complete at Columbia in late November...

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ndirish2010
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Re: Predict THE REST of my cycle?

Postby ndirish2010 » Wed Feb 02, 2011 3:20 am

jeremysen wrote:
ndirish2010 wrote:
firemed wrote:
ndirish2010 wrote:
It's a median...if OP scored 120 or 172, that is the same for Harvard's median. That's why I think there is a chance.



I saw a lecture on this once. Basically because lawyers aren't stats people they often end up taking a bunch of people right at their 25% and very, very rarely going below their 25th percentile.


That would mean that 25% of the people at HLS are right at their 25%ile score (what is it, 171?). I think there have to be a few below that (they all have 3.9x GPAs, of course). Maybe not many, but a few.


Are you sure this is how it works? I thought that the 25% score indicated the 25% lowest score in the class - similar to median


The 25%ile score is simply the score that the person 1/4 of the way up the class received. In a 100 person class, the 25th lowest score would be the 25%ile score...so imagine if H admitted 25 171s and nobody worse, 171 would still be the 25%ile.

Simplified for math purposes (Obviously their class size is different).

jeremysen
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Re: Predict THE REST of my cycle?

Postby jeremysen » Wed Feb 02, 2011 3:25 am

ndirish2010 wrote:
jeremysen wrote:Are you sure this is how it works? I thought that the 25% score indicated the 25% lowest score in the class - similar to median


The 25%ile score is simply the score that the person 1/4 of the way up the class received. In a 100 person class, the 25th lowest score would be the 25%ile score...so imagine if H admitted 25 171s and nobody worse, 171 would still be the 25%ile.

Simplified for math purposes (Obviously their class size is different).



Sorry I posted my reply to the wrong person - I was trying to respond to the following poster, but now that I scan through previous posts, it seems that my comment was already reiterated 10 times over.

Your explanation was exactly what I was trying to say. You just said it much clearer :)

firemed wrote:He/She would really, like seriously, pull down the LSAT.

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BlakcMajikc
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Re: Predict THE REST of my cycle?

Postby BlakcMajikc » Wed Feb 02, 2011 3:32 am

easternstandardtime1 wrote:Went complete at Columbia in late November...


Ok. Then drop the 50/50 down to (edit: a very optimistic) 20/80... but still a shot.

r6_philly
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Re: Predict THE REST of my cycle?

Postby r6_philly » Wed Feb 02, 2011 10:55 am

firemed wrote:
ndirish2010 wrote:You don't think the high GPA would make HLS possible? OP wouldn't hurt the GPA median, has a decent LSAT and is a URM.



He/She would really, like seriously, pull down the LSAT. Yale is occasionally known for taking some strange choices.... but Harvard isn't known for that, and they will get URMs with 170s applying.


How do you seriously pull down the LSAT?

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BlakcMajikc
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Re: Predict THE REST of my cycle?

Postby BlakcMajikc » Wed Feb 02, 2011 1:37 pm

BlakcMajikc wrote:
easternstandardtime1 wrote:Went complete at Columbia in late November...


Ok. Then drop the 50/50 down to (edit: a very optimistic) 20/80... but still a shot.


OP, Are you UR yet or when did you go UR?

firemed
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Re: Predict THE REST of my cycle?

Postby firemed » Wed Feb 02, 2011 3:21 pm

r6_philly wrote:
firemed wrote:
ndirish2010 wrote:You don't think the high GPA would make HLS possible? OP wouldn't hurt the GPA median, has a decent LSAT and is a URM.



He/She would really, like seriously, pull down the LSAT. Yale is occasionally known for taking some strange choices.... but Harvard isn't known for that, and they will get URMs with 170s applying.


How do you seriously pull down the LSAT?


So I was wrong and right at the same time.

Okay.... simple numbers so we don't get lost:

10 people in Harvard's class: 2x 180, 2x179, 2x 176, 2x 172, 2x 171. Median = 175.6

Now another 10 people: 2x 180, 2x179, 2x 176, 2x 172, 1x 171, 1x 163. Median = 174.8

This effect is exaggerated in such a small sample. Given the size of H's class they can take one or two or even three of these without any real effect.

So, I should have changed how I said it.... Addcoms who don't know stats or do math will think he would really pull down their median. And in a way, he would since he would have a statistically significant effect. Just not an effect US News would notice. Which is all the Addcom cares about.

But since H addcoms think it will happen, and because they have URMs applying with 168-178... they will take those instead. So I stand by my assertion that H won't take the OP, but I was wrong that he would seriously pull down the lsat in any real way.

My apologies.

easternstandardtime1
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Re: Predict THE REST of my cycle?

Postby easternstandardtime1 » Wed Feb 02, 2011 3:25 pm

Yes, UR at Columbia as of late November

tothePAIN
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Re: Predict THE REST of my cycle?

Postby tothePAIN » Wed Feb 02, 2011 3:28 pm

@firemed

A median is the person at the 50% percentile. The person in the middle. Since in both your examples, you're 5th and 6th person are 176s, the median is 176 for both examples. You're actually calculating an average.

Regardless, a 163, even URM, faces difficulties in getting into HYS.

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BlakcMajikc
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Re: Predict THE REST of my cycle?

Postby BlakcMajikc » Wed Feb 02, 2011 3:36 pm

easternstandardtime1 wrote:Yes, UR at Columbia as of late November


Sorry but with the new info - 5/95
Your softs give you a fighting chance.




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