LSDAS GPA: 2.82; LSAT: 155

Not sure where your numbers will get you? Dying to know where you stand? Come have your palms read by your fellow posters!
CGB
Posts: 4
Joined: Thu Jan 13, 2011 1:56 pm

LSDAS GPA: 2.82; LSAT: 155

Postby CGB » Thu Jan 13, 2011 2:50 pm

I have two years work experience teaching english at a private high school and currently have a 3.55 GPA in grad school (graduating in May) at one of the law schools that I'm applying to - i don't know if that matters.

I am applying to:

University of Memphis
University of Mississippi
University of Arkansas - Lafayette
University of Arkansas - Little Rock
Louisiana State University
Ave Maria

Do I have a shot at these?

User avatar
deadpanic
Posts: 1168
Joined: Sat Oct 03, 2009 5:09 pm

Re: LSDAS GPA: 2.82; LSAT: 155

Postby deadpanic » Fri Jan 14, 2011 1:22 am

Out at Ole Miss, memphis, LSU and Ark-fayetteville. Probably a shot at UALR and probably in Ave Maria, but don't bother with AM.

User avatar
romothesavior
Posts: 14772
Joined: Fri Jun 26, 2009 4:29 pm

Re: LSDAS GPA: 2.82; LSAT: 155

Postby romothesavior » Fri Jan 14, 2011 1:34 am

Re-take or do not go to law school. The schools you mentioned are not likely to get you a financially viable legal job and you will likely be out at most of them anyways.

You really need to think about whether law school is a wise decision. Before you go, do your homework. Start with this New York Time's article, as it will give you a good idea of what to expect from schools like the ones you just mentioned: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/09/business/09law.html?_r=1

If you decide you do want to go to law school, then you need to get your LSAT score up. A 155 is not a good score at all, especially when coupled with that GPA. If you really want to be a lawyer, you will take the time to study hard and do better than that. If you want to take the easy route and still go to a Tier 4 school, then you are setting yourself up for failure.

ATR
Posts: 1119
Joined: Sun Oct 03, 2010 9:18 pm

Re: LSDAS GPA: 2.82; LSAT: 155

Postby ATR » Fri Jan 14, 2011 1:38 am

romothesavior wrote:Re-take or do not go to law school. The schools you mentioned are not likely to get you a financially viable legal job and you will likely be out at most of them anyways.

You really need to think about whether law school is a wise decision. Before you go, do your homework. Start with this New York Time's article, as it will give you a good idea of what to expect from schools like the ones you just mentioned: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/09/business/09law.html?_r=1

If you decide you do want to go to law school, then you need to get your LSAT score up. A 155 is not a good score at all, especially when coupled with that GPA. If you really want to be a lawyer, you will take the time to study hard and do better than that. If you want to take the easy route and still go to a Tier 4 school, then you are setting yourself up for failure.

Excellent post.

acirilli1722
Posts: 83
Joined: Thu Nov 25, 2010 2:22 am

Re: LSDAS GPA: 2.82; LSAT: 155

Postby acirilli1722 » Fri Jan 14, 2011 2:09 am

Re-take isn't a bad idea, if you can get even 5 more points you can open up a lot more options or even some scholarship opportunities at the lower ranked schools. However if you don't want to wait another year and you are actually interested in LSU try Loyola-New Orleans. It has lower admission standards and not too much competition from other schools for jobs as Loyola and LSU are really the only recognizable names in Louisiana. If you do end up going to a tier 3/4 look for a school in a market where you won't have to compete with a lot of top ranked schools. For example Widener is the only law school in Delaware and I know of a few grads of Widener doing pretty well, this is as long as you are willing to go to a school outside the southeast (looking at your list).

User avatar
kapital98
Posts: 1188
Joined: Sun Jan 09, 2011 9:58 pm

Re: LSDAS GPA: 2.82; LSAT: 155

Postby kapital98 » Fri Jan 14, 2011 2:25 am

You have a shot. A 155 isn't the instant death romothesavior keeps telling people it is.

1) Pick 2 or 3 regions and stick to it. Right now it seems like you're just randomly applying to different places all over the US. With your numbers you have to be flexible. Apply to 2-3 schools in one region.

2) Apply to 3rd and 4th tier schools. Your list is 4th tier when your numbers are good enough to have a shot at some decent 3rd tier schools.

3) After your (hopeful) admission to 3rd and 4th tier schools you can jockey for as much financial aid as you can get. Don't expect to make more than $50,000-60,000 out of the gate. Make sure to keep debt low (or go into public interest.)

The best way to keep debt low:

If you do end up going to a tier 3/4 look for a school in a market where you won't have to compete with a lot of top ranked schools. For example Widener is the only law school in Delaware and I know of a few grads of Widener doing pretty well, this is as long as you are willing to go to a school outside the southeast (looking at your list).

User avatar
romothesavior
Posts: 14772
Joined: Fri Jun 26, 2009 4:29 pm

Re: LSDAS GPA: 2.82; LSAT: 155

Postby romothesavior » Fri Jan 14, 2011 2:32 am

kapital98 wrote:You have a shot. A 155 isn't the instant death romothesavior keeps telling people it is.

Yeah you're right, because listening to people who are actually in law school is a terrible idea. Continue ignoring the unemployed 2Ls and 3Ls at respectable T1s and continue living in the fantasy world where Tier 4 students pull themselves up by their bootstraps and make it in the legal profession with good ol' fashioned hard work and networking!

If you don't believe me, read the article I posted duder. Maybe you think all the TLSers and law bloggers are just trolling you. Well I doubt the New York Times is trolling or joking with their article. I doubt that law professors are going to troll you about this job market when it is in their best interest to have you come to school. (Read this article by a professor at my school who taught at T3 St. John's before coming here: http://balkin.blogspot.com/2010/06/wake-up-fellow-law-professors-to.html) Going to a 4th tier law school like Ave Maria is the functional equivalent of taking $200,000 in non-dischargeable debt and lighting it on fire.

Also, if a Tier 4 law school isn't bad, then what is a bad law school? And if 155/sub-3.0 aren't bad numbers, what are bad numbers? If OP really wants to practice law, he/she should actually invest the time and energy into doing well on the most important part of his/her application: the LSAT. You're right, a 155 is not the kiss of death, because you can retake it. But just taking the easy road and going to a T3/4 without even putting your best effort into the pre-law phase is just so lazy. Plenty of people on TLS have increased their scores on a retake and drastically improved their chances (including myself). Hard to feel bad for people who half-ass it, don't do their homework, or worst of all, sink 6 figures into a terrible school despite knowing the risks and having all indicators that they aren't going to be successful.
Last edited by romothesavior on Fri Jan 14, 2011 2:45 am, edited 1 time in total.

acirilli1722
Posts: 83
Joined: Thu Nov 25, 2010 2:22 am

Re: LSDAS GPA: 2.82; LSAT: 155

Postby acirilli1722 » Fri Jan 14, 2011 2:44 am

I actually would advise reading that article, it is a good read and is really good information especially since I know of people that just jumped into law school without enough information about the risk they were taking. However, if you know for a fact that what you really want is to study law then there are still options besides T 14 schools and BigLaw jobs. I would just make sure you seriously research the schools you are considering as well as look into the markets in which they place. I'm not exactly a credible source but after talking to professors and practicing lawyers I definitely get the impression that if you really want to get into law, as long as you find the right school to study at and put in the leg work to succeed at that school and to go out and network then you can be successful and not be undoubtably doomed as a lot of people on this site say, even at the lower ranked schools.

User avatar
NorCalBruin
Posts: 591
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2010 7:58 pm

Re: LSDAS GPA: 2.82; LSAT: 155

Postby NorCalBruin » Fri Jan 14, 2011 2:47 am

--If you were an admissions officer, would you be inclined to accept students with average-joe LSAT scores and below average GPA's? No. Why would you? If I were an admissions officer I wouldn't. Not without an extremely compelling story.

--As a student, would you really want to go to a school that accepts students like that? What does that say about the school? Would you really want to be surrounded by students who either don't work hard or aren't intelligent? Do you want to go to a school that lets everyone in as long as they give them money? Is that the academic environment you want?

User avatar
romothesavior
Posts: 14772
Joined: Fri Jun 26, 2009 4:29 pm

Re: LSDAS GPA: 2.82; LSAT: 155

Postby romothesavior » Fri Jan 14, 2011 2:48 am

acirilli1722 wrote:I actually would advise reading that article, it is a good read and is really good information especially since I know of people that just jumped into law school without enough information about the risk they were taking. However, if you know for a fact that what you really want is to study law then there are still options besides T 14 schools and BigLaw jobs.

Absolutely, I agree. I'm not some T14 or bust person. I don't even go to one myself. But it is important to realize just how bad things are, and it is important to do everything you can to minimize debt and put yourself in a position to succeed. There are people on TLS who are scrambling for jobs with top 10% and law review at Tier 1 schools. How do you think median at Ave Maria is doing?

User avatar
kapital98
Posts: 1188
Joined: Sun Jan 09, 2011 9:58 pm

Re: LSDAS GPA: 2.82; LSAT: 155

Postby kapital98 » Fri Jan 14, 2011 2:53 am

Romo (If I may call you that):

Were currently experiencing a jobless recovery. The labor market has suffered. Luckily professionals, like lawyers are not facing the same employment prospects as less skilled workers (whether you look at the U3 or U6 rate of unemployment and it's breakdown.) When the labor market is at equilibrium below potential this means there are less jobs and the jobs that do exist start with less pay. It also means entrance to law school is more competitive and, all else equal, it is harder to attain scholarships.

The good news is the labor market will be back to equilibrium by ~2015. This happens to coincide with when the OP will be looking for a job. The OP will not partake in OCI and will (hopefully) find a job through a previous internship or through networking.

When I said $50,000-60,000 I meant starting salary. When I interned at a local Public Defender's office I analyzed their pay scale in order to create a labor model that did not hold to the assumption of market clearing wages (a combination of public finance/efficiency wages/monopolistic competition.) Even the lowest pay scale for a public defender is just over $50,000 (upstate NY.) When I was leaving they were hiring Cooley graduates -- and were quite happy with them.

Would a retake with a higher score help? Absolutely. Is it a guarantee? No. The OP may not be able to get a higher score. I'm answering the OP's question. I'm not giving the same advice that is constantly regurgitated on these forums.

You can keep giving out your elitist advice. If you can give me a long run economic analysis of the labor market that contradicts what I'm saying I would be happy to see it.

(no offense intend. If you would like labor statistics I'll dig around Dismal Scientist (Moody's) and find something satisfactory.)

User avatar
kapital98
Posts: 1188
Joined: Sun Jan 09, 2011 9:58 pm

Re: LSDAS GPA: 2.82; LSAT: 155

Postby kapital98 » Fri Jan 14, 2011 3:02 am

romothesavior wrote:But it is important to realize just how bad things are, and it is important to do everything you can to minimize debt and put yourself in a position to succeed. There are people on TLS who are scrambling for jobs with top 10% and law review at Tier 1 schools. How do you think median at Ave Maria is doing?


Romo, the people going to a T1 and the people at Ave Maria are searching for different jobs. What law school you go to serves as a significant signal to the market. It's possible to be mobile depending on your grades but not likely to happen.

A T1 in the top 10% with law review is looking for biglaw, a high ranking state position, or a nice federal job. A person in the same position at Ave Maria will not be vying for the same jobs. Instead of going after the $160,000 job they will be trying to secure the $60,000 job (both examples are using the private sector.)

The law market is extremely heterogeneous when it comes to human capital and marginal productivity. Under neoclassical assumptions, which for the moment lets assume are true, wages represent marginal productivity. High ranking T1 students are far more productive than high ranking T4 students. Both students will find jobs, assuming labor clearing markets, but at different wage rates.

*A liquidity trap, with a jobless recovery, makes the assumption of labor clearing markets not hold. In the short run employment is artificially high due to cyclical problems. Under normal circumstances the neoclassical model is correct.

acirilli1722
Posts: 83
Joined: Thu Nov 25, 2010 2:22 am

Re: LSDAS GPA: 2.82; LSAT: 155

Postby acirilli1722 » Fri Jan 14, 2011 3:07 am

haha as for Ave Maria grads I can't say I know enough about the school to really give a good reply. However apparently UM has had some difficulty with national reach with the current economy forcing a many UM grads to stay in the area and MSU has built a solid reputation so I would imagine that Ave Maria grads are struggling a little bit. Plus the other midwest states surrounding Michigan are littered with other highly ranked schools to compete with. Although it is also possible kapital is right about the economy turning around by 2015 and seeing OP won't be graduating for at least another 4 years and the job market may be good enough to open up more opportunities for grads from schools like Ave Maria. It really depends if OP is willing to rely and risk a lot of money on that assumption or if they work hard enough and go above and beyond to create some opportunities for themselves.

acirilli1722
Posts: 83
Joined: Thu Nov 25, 2010 2:22 am

Re: LSDAS GPA: 2.82; LSAT: 155

Postby acirilli1722 » Fri Jan 14, 2011 3:16 am

Also a good point kapital, whether OP is looking for a job in Public interest or BigLaw makes a huge difference. However, even "less desirable" jobs as a lot of people call them, are becoming much more competitive. In the current economy students probably have to put in extra effort to get any job, BigLaw or not, and this is most likely the case at almost all schools with the exception of a select few (HYS ect). However is is probably more apparent in a tier 4 than say Wake Forest.

User avatar
romothesavior
Posts: 14772
Joined: Fri Jun 26, 2009 4:29 pm

Re: LSDAS GPA: 2.82; LSAT: 155

Postby romothesavior » Fri Jan 14, 2011 3:18 am

kapital98 wrote:You can keep giving out your elitist advice.

I don't see anything elitist about telling someone not to royally fuck themselves and their future/current family with tons of debt for few job prospects.

Read the NYT article. Google Brian Tamanaha's articles on the law school scam on Balkinization. Read the law blogs of unemployed, angry law graduates. Go check out the TLS Employment forum and hear the horror stories of current students at good schools. Then tell me I'm just being elitist, and try to say that going to a Tier 4 law school is a good investment with a straight face.

You act like this is a product of the recession, but it simply is not. Direct quote from a law prof of mine who used to teach at a T3 school: "This is not a product of the recession. The recession has simply made the problem go up the ladder to the higher ranked schools." He would tell you straight up that only a very small number of students at T3/T4 schools can get decent jobs and pay off their debt. He has seen firsthand the devastating effects of going to an expensive T3/T4 school and he would absolutely advise against it in almost all cases.

Of the tens of thousands of unemployed graduates being churned out every year, guess where the overwhelming majority come from? Tier 3 and Tier 4 schools. That's not elitism. That's reality. Calling the doomsdayers elitist is just a lazy, pathetic, and ignorant way of wishing this problem away. I really hope you're still around TLS in a year or two so I can hear you admit how wrong you were.

User avatar
romothesavior
Posts: 14772
Joined: Fri Jun 26, 2009 4:29 pm

Re: LSDAS GPA: 2.82; LSAT: 155

Postby romothesavior » Fri Jan 14, 2011 3:23 am

acirilli1722 wrote:haha as for Ave Maria grads I can't say I know enough about the school to really give a good reply. However apparently UM has had some difficulty with national reach with the current economy forcing a many UM grads to stay in the area and MSU has built a solid reputation so I would imagine that Ave Maria grads are struggling a little bit.

Ave Maria is in Florida.

kapital98 wrote:Romo, the people going to a T1 and the people at Ave Maria are searching for different jobs.

This is absolutely, categorically false. PDs, DAs, public interest, and small firms of low prestige get dozens or even hundreds of applications for a single opening, and they come from every single type of school there is. I go to WUSTL and I cannot count on all my fingers and toes the number of people I know who want to work for the PD.

kapital98 wrote:A T1 in the top 10% with law review is looking for biglaw, a high ranking state position, or a nice federal job. A person in the same position at Ave Maria will not be vying for the same jobs. Instead of going after the $160,000 job they will be trying to secure the $60,000 job (both examples are using the private sector.)


Guess what those in the T1 who are not top 10% are doing? They're applying for the same jobs your Ave grads are, and they're hands down beating them out for those jobs. You clearly have no freaking clue about the legal market.

User avatar
kapital98
Posts: 1188
Joined: Sun Jan 09, 2011 9:58 pm

Re: LSDAS GPA: 2.82; LSAT: 155

Postby kapital98 » Fri Jan 14, 2011 3:24 am

During a business cycle people are unemployed because jobs do not exist. Wages are sticky. Instead of decreasing, like they should in a flexible market, they remain nominally fixed. This causes unemployment -- no matter how hard people look for jobs they don't exist. (This is an aggregate analysis -- it doesn't mean the individual, per say, cannot find a job.)

The entire structural argument, that too many law school exist, doesn't hurt the labor market. It actually helps the public by increasing competition among lawyers and decreasing their economic rent (they are monopolistically competitive.) It does hurt the law students who incorrectly plan to make far more than they realistically will.

acirilli1722 wrote:Although it is also possible kapital is right about the economy turning around by 2015 and seeing OP won't be graduating for at least another 4 years and the job market may be good enough to open up more opportunities for grads from schools like Ave Maria. It really depends if OP is willing to rely and risk a lot of money on that assumption or if they work hard enough and go above and beyond to create some opportunities for themselves.


2015 is the overwhelming consensus among academic and professional economists. Economists from the White House, Congress, the major rating agencies, investment firms (like Goldman Sachs), and ivory tower academics all agree on the general time frame. Long term labor market predictions are very different than, say, stock predictions. An overwhelming amount of data and theory exists to explain labor market shifts. The only thing that will prevent the labor market from eventually going back to potential equilibrium is a double-dip recession. It is extremely unlikely but always possible...

justhockey31
Posts: 312
Joined: Tue Jul 27, 2010 8:35 pm

Re: LSDAS GPA: 2.82; LSAT: 155

Postby justhockey31 » Fri Jan 14, 2011 3:27 am

Re-take (I feel dirty for finally using that word on TLS)...after 2 months of intense studying I went from your same 155 to a 167 so put in the effort and begin looking at much better schools. Best of luck!

DanInALionsDen
Posts: 296
Joined: Tue Oct 13, 2009 1:00 am

Re: LSDAS GPA: 2.82; LSAT: 155

Postby DanInALionsDen » Fri Jan 14, 2011 3:29 am

kapital98 wrote:
romothesavior wrote:But it is important to realize just how bad things are, and it is important to do everything you can to minimize debt and put yourself in a position to succeed. There are people on TLS who are scrambling for jobs with top 10% and law review at Tier 1 schools. How do you think median at Ave Maria is doing?


Romo, the people going to a T1 and the people at Ave Maria are searching for different jobs. What law school you go to serves as a significant signal to the market. It's possible to be mobile depending on your grades but not likely to happen.

A T1 in the top 10% with law review is looking for biglaw, a high ranking state position, or a nice federal job. A person in the same position at Ave Maria will not be vying for the same jobs. Instead of going after the $160,000 job they will be trying to secure the $60,000 job (both examples are using the private sector.)

The law market is extremely heterogeneous when it comes to human capital and marginal productivity. Under neoclassical assumptions, which for the moment lets assume are true, wages represent marginal productivity. High ranking T1 students are far more productive than high ranking T4 students. Both students will find jobs, assuming labor clearing markets, but at different wage rates.

*A liquidity trap, with a jobless recovery, makes the assumption of labor clearing markets not hold. In the short run employment is artificially high due to cyclical problems. Under normal circumstances the neoclassical model is correct.


Ha! I know PLENTY of people at Georgetown who would take that mythical 60k job right from an Ave Maria grad's hands. You need to stop giving advice until you know what you're talking about. You're encouraging people to do things which will almost certainly hurt them greatly in the long run. That's unethical.

User avatar
romothesavior
Posts: 14772
Joined: Fri Jun 26, 2009 4:29 pm

Re: LSDAS GPA: 2.82; LSAT: 155

Postby romothesavior » Fri Jan 14, 2011 3:32 am

DanInALionsDen wrote: That's unethical.

I was just about to say this.

The amount of dangerous advice and the number of horribly faulty assumptions ITT is reckless to the point of borderline unethical.

acirilli1722
Posts: 83
Joined: Thu Nov 25, 2010 2:22 am

Re: LSDAS GPA: 2.82; LSAT: 155

Postby acirilli1722 » Fri Jan 14, 2011 3:41 am

haha told you I didn't know too much about Ave Maria. Just looked at its profile, it used to be in Michigan but did move to FL (strange relocation in my opinion). My mistake

User avatar
kapital98
Posts: 1188
Joined: Sun Jan 09, 2011 9:58 pm

Re: LSDAS GPA: 2.82; LSAT: 155

Postby kapital98 » Fri Jan 14, 2011 3:43 am

Romo:

I read the NYT article several days ago. It gives ancedotal evidence backed up by some alarming sticker prices. It's nice as a qualitiative look at law schools. However, it is by no means an economic analysis. Anyone with training in economics would laugh (the same goes for most NYT/Washington Post/USA Today articles.)

The recession is a demand side shock. A large number of law schools is a supply side shock. There is a monumental difference between the two. Decreasing demand, along with sticky wages, leads to artificially high unemployment. This is a short-run phenomena. Eventually prices adjust, or the government boosts aggregate demand, and employment goes back to potential.

Structural issues are different because they are more important regarding distributive issues. Increasing the supply will lead to a short-run decrease in employment. However, and much more importantly, in the long-run employment will go back to potential equilibrium. Unfortunately for lawyers their average wage will decrease. As the barrier to entry of a legal job decreases more people will enter the market. The more people in the market the lower wages will be (it's rather simple math.)

This is slightly more complicated because labor is hetorgenous. However, the basic neoclassical model of "unions" is a good way to think of the legal market. By preventing anyone from becoming a lawyer the economic rent the people currently in the legal market have will decrease. The market will become more competitive. Consumer surplus will increase, producer surplus will decrease, and the deadweightloss will decrease (societies better off.)

For consumers this is a good thing. It is not a good thing if false advertising and misleading information is setting up lower tier lawyers for failure. The ABA is partly to blame for this. Perfect information from the ABA would dramatically increase competition and lead to a more flexible legal market.

Assuming distribution throughout the legal market Ave Maria graduates, all else equal, would not compete with T1 graduates. There will always be anecdotal exceptions to the rule. I'm looking at aggregates. Quantitative analysis is the only proper way to look at an issue. In this case I'm using a wide array of neoclassical and modern economic theory to make my point.

The assumption of constant distribution is probably unrealistic. The bottom 25-50% of the legal market is probably being "smooshed" together in the long-run due to a number of reasons that deviate away from perfect competition.

To make it simple: Supply side issues, like more schools, cause unemployment in the SR and depress wages in the LR. Demand side issues, like a recession, cause unemployment in the SR.

User avatar
kapital98
Posts: 1188
Joined: Sun Jan 09, 2011 9:58 pm

Re: LSDAS GPA: 2.82; LSAT: 155

Postby kapital98 » Fri Jan 14, 2011 3:50 am

Daninthelionsden:

During a liquidity trap jobs are not available. If you wish to give advice about labor market conditions please understand the basic differences between frictional, structural, and cyclical unemployment.

The current Georgetown grads are experiencing cyclical unemployment (no jobs exist.) Past and future grads experienced/will experience frictional unemployment. (unless for some reason all the legal jobs leave D.C. and structural problems exist :P )

About 10-20% of TLS is composed of ECON majors/minors. I'm really surprised people don't talk about labor/business cycle economics more often instead of keep on saying, "THE SKY IS FALLING!!!"

acirilli1722
Posts: 83
Joined: Thu Nov 25, 2010 2:22 am

Re: LSDAS GPA: 2.82; LSAT: 155

Postby acirilli1722 » Fri Jan 14, 2011 3:53 am

Definitely agree that the ABA needs to do something about misleading statistics and the schools need to step up as well. The truth is as long as there is the ability to use misleading information at least one school is going to take advantage, forcing all the other schools to follow in order to compete. It's is criminal to deceive prospective students with promises just to have them end up in a miserable situation.

User avatar
Mickey Quicknumbers
Posts: 2177
Joined: Tue Apr 28, 2009 1:22 pm

Re: LSDAS GPA: 2.82; LSAT: 155

Postby Mickey Quicknumbers » Fri Jan 14, 2011 3:53 am

kapital98 wrote:During a business cycle people are unemployed because jobs do not exist. Wages are sticky. Instead of decreasing, like they should in a flexible market, they remain nominally fixed. This causes unemployment -- no matter how hard people look for jobs they don't exist. (This is an aggregate analysis -- it doesn't mean the individual, per say, cannot find a job.)

The entire structural argument, that too many law school exist, doesn't hurt the labor market. It actually helps the public by increasing competition among lawyers and decreasing their economic rent (they are monopolistically competitive.) It does hurt the law students who incorrectly plan to make far more than they realistically will.

acirilli1722 wrote:Although it is also possible kapital is right about the economy turning around by 2015 and seeing OP won't be graduating for at least another 4 years and the job market may be good enough to open up more opportunities for grads from schools like Ave Maria. It really depends if OP is willing to rely and risk a lot of money on that assumption or if they work hard enough and go above and beyond to create some opportunities for themselves.


2015 is the overwhelming consensus among academic and professional economists. Economists from the White House, Congress, the major rating agencies, investment firms (like Goldman Sachs), and ivory tower academics all agree on the general time frame. Long term labor market predictions are very different than, say, stock predictions. An overwhelming amount of data and theory exists to explain labor market shifts. The only thing that will prevent the labor market from eventually going back to potential equilibrium is a double-dip recession. It is extremely unlikely but always possible...


That's great. I believe you clearly know what you're talking about regarding the labor market, generally. Unfortunately you really don't know anything about the legal hiring market. Which has taken some turns very nuanced apart from the general labor market.

kapital98 wrote:The entire structural argument, that too many law school exist, doesn't hurt the labor market. It actually helps the public by increasing competition among lawyers and decreasing their economic rent (they are monopolistically competitive.) It does hurt the law students who incorrectly plan to make far more than they realistically will.


Thanks for pointing exactly the situation that the OP is in. Last year they projected that less than 15,000 substantive legal jobs opened up for roughly 42,000 law school graduates. And the effect isn't that it "increases competition among lawyers". The effect is that law firms now have harshly-tiered hiring policies leaning heavily towards the top-schools, because they simply have no way to differentiate otherwise. As a result, schools like the ones OP is looking at are putting absolutely awful amounts of kids in real legal employment. We're talking close to 0% outside of contacts alone (and God help you making contacts that your parents don't already have lined up for you.)

If you're looking at a school like Ave Maria, let me give you a little hint about the florida legal hiring market right now. There are 11 law schools in Florida. 11. None of them have reach out of state, so you have about 3,000+ kids every year looking to work in the state of florida. Do you know how many "big" legal markets there are in florida? There's miami, with is the 9th largest in the nation, and gets flooded mostly with the top of UF's class, the top of UM's class (think top 5-10%), kids whose parents are equity partners, and really any T-14 student who feels like working in miami (this is actually exacerbating the problem by a large amount). Then you have weak secondary markets like Orlando, Jacksonville, Tampa, I maaaaybe Tallahassee (but almost all jobs in tallahassee are straight up eaten by FSU kids).
So right now you probably have more kids on law review in the state of florida than you have legal jobs opening up. The result is that kids who are 10% at UF: the, by far, most prestigious degree in Florida, graduating jobless right now and wishing they had never gone.

So lets review: Florida is a dispersed market, what biglaw jobs (see: jobs you can get by interviewing with the firms by OCI) are sucked dry by the very tippy top of UF and maybe Miami or FSU or Stetson. This leaves about 90+% of all Florida law school graduates currently looking for *any* employment at all. Where then do they go? Government jobs, PD's, clerks, small-local-firm jobs, shitlaw handling fender benders for 25k a year, and of course temporary-no-benefits-doc review. Working all the way down the chain. By the time it gets to a school like Ave Maria (note: a school dealing with financial fraud, bankruptcy, and easily the poorest faculty in the nation at this point) what is left? Nothing. So if you can't be absolutely sure you have a job lined up already no matter what school you go to, stay the hell away from Ave Maria.

The other schools on that list? I can't speak so harshly about because I don't know them specifically. But believe me the picture won't be much brighter.




Return to “What are my chances?”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest