Lawschoolpredictor = accurate?

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LeParadisTerrestre
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Lawschoolpredictor = accurate?

Postby LeParadisTerrestre » Thu Dec 30, 2010 2:05 am

Do you think http://www.lawschoolpredictor.com/wp-co ... ograms.htm is overall too optimistic/pessimistic or pretty accurate? If the former, is there a more realistic predictor out there?

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Knock
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Re: Lawschoolpredictor = accurate?

Postby Knock » Thu Dec 30, 2010 2:07 am

LeParadisTerrestre wrote:Do you think http://www.lawschoolpredictor.com/wp-co ... ograms.htm is overall too optimistic/pessimistic or pretty accurate? If the former, is there a more realistic predictor out there?


Don't depend on it to be accurate for individual schools, but rather to determine a rough range of where to apply. Use LSN if you want to figure out your chances on a school-by-school basis.

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artichoke
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Re: Lawschoolpredictor = accurate?

Postby artichoke » Thu Dec 30, 2010 2:10 am

LeParadisTerrestre wrote:Do you think http://www.lawschoolpredictor.com/wp-co ... ograms.htm is overall too optimistic/pessimistic or pretty accurate? If the former, is there a more realistic predictor out there?


There is a page on LSP that talks about its accuracy. I would link to it if I wasn't so lazy.

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2Serious4Numbers
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Re: Lawschoolpredictor = accurate?

Postby 2Serious4Numbers » Thu Dec 30, 2010 2:11 am

It's not spliter-friendly, but will certainly put you in the correct ballpark. Strong considers and admits are pretty spot on for acceptances and considers are so-so, but overall it is useful for gauging your score index school by school

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WhatSarahSaid
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Re: Lawschoolpredictor = accurate?

Postby WhatSarahSaid » Thu Dec 30, 2010 3:13 am

To echo the above sentiments, it's too optimistic in the sense that it ignores individual schools' idiosyncrasies. Being out-of-state at Virginia, not having WE for Northwestern, and not having awesome softs for Yale/Stanford will all hurt you badly in the admissions process, and LSP doesn't account for those things.

In terms of a macroscopic view of the process, there isn't a better resource. Just read TLS and use LSN for individual schools.

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gbpackerbacker
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Re: Lawschoolpredictor = accurate?

Postby gbpackerbacker » Thu Dec 30, 2010 3:20 am

WhatSarahSaid wrote:To echo the above sentiments, it's too optimistic in the sense that it ignores individual schools' idiosyncrasies. Being out-of-state at Virginia, not having WE for Northwestern, and not having awesome softs for Yale/Stanford will all hurt you badly in the admissions process, and LSP doesn't account for those things.

In terms of a macroscopic view of the process, there isn't a better resource. Just read TLS and use LSN for individual schools.


+1.

SG09
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Re: Lawschoolpredictor = accurate?

Postby SG09 » Thu Dec 30, 2010 8:14 am

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Last edited by SG09 on Wed Jul 25, 2012 3:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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DeeCee
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Re: Lawschoolpredictor = accurate?

Postby DeeCee » Thu Dec 30, 2010 9:54 am

gbpackerbacker wrote:
WhatSarahSaid wrote:To echo the above sentiments, it's too optimistic in the sense that it ignores individual schools' idiosyncrasies. Being out-of-state at Virginia, not having WE for Northwestern, and not having awesome softs for Yale/Stanford will all hurt you badly in the admissions process, and LSP doesn't account for those things.

In terms of a macroscopic view of the process, there isn't a better resource. Just read TLS and use LSN for individual schools.


+1.


+1 as well. It has worked great for me in this cycle, even though I'm a reverse-splitter and kind of a URM (Cuban). However, check LSN too to see who got in with your numbers and situation. I've found that works well.

HawksJetsFalcons
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Re: Lawschoolpredictor = accurate?

Postby HawksJetsFalcons » Thu Dec 30, 2010 10:25 am

I wouldn't give it much credence if you're a URM.

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Lokomani
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Re: Lawschoolpredictor = accurate?

Postby Lokomani » Thu Dec 30, 2010 10:28 am

SG09 wrote:Any other idiosyncrasies in the T14 that LSP fails to take into account?

I've heard that Berkeley and maybe Duke have GPA floors that likely rule me out at those schools, even though LSP has them as Considers for me (I'm in the 3.5-3.6 range). Anything else in there I should know about?

Also what sort of application time-line is LSP assuming? I applied to most schools around Christmas, which I gather from this forum is a bit late. Based on that, should I be much less optimistic about my chances than LSP tells me I should?


These are all questions we couldn't answer. Just wait and see where you get in. The bottom line is that schools will either think your application is good enough or not.

Sandro
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Re: Lawschoolpredictor = accurate?

Postby Sandro » Thu Dec 30, 2010 3:43 pm

why is it not splitter friendly?

NYCcops
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Re: Lawschoolpredictor = accurate?

Postby NYCcops » Thu Dec 30, 2010 3:49 pm

It does not take certain variables into consideration, both good and bad. Examples include arrests such as DUIs on the bad side of the spectrum or being legacy on the good side of the spectrum.

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spacepenguin
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Re: Lawschoolpredictor = accurate?

Postby spacepenguin » Thu Dec 30, 2010 4:45 pm

Sandro777 wrote:why is it not splitter friendly?

Part of it is the way logistic regression works. Unless they use an interaction term of sorts it's going to struggle with splitters. More to the point and my non-expert opinion would be that most data that LSP uses comes from people with more standardized numbers; that is, good GPAs with good LSAT scores, or bad GPAs with bad LSATs and there's little data taken into account for traditional splitters. With such few outliers, it's hard to make a predictive model. With that in mind, reverse splitters seem to be more common and thus I would imagine LSP would fair better with those applicants.

Just my $0.02

edit: Also, awesome avatar. Best. Moment. Ever.

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Birdlaw
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Re: Lawschoolpredictor = accurate?

Postby Birdlaw » Fri Dec 31, 2010 3:48 am

Knock wrote:
LeParadisTerrestre wrote:Do you think http://www.lawschoolpredictor.com/wp-co ... ograms.htm is overall too optimistic/pessimistic or pretty accurate? If the former, is there a more realistic predictor out there?


Don't depend on it to be accurate for individual schools, but rather to determine a rough range of where to apply. Use LSN if you want to figure out your chances on a school-by-school basis.


TITCR

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T6Hopeful
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Re: Lawschoolpredictor = accurate?

Postby T6Hopeful » Fri Dec 31, 2010 5:32 pm

artichoke wrote:
LeParadisTerrestre wrote:Do you think http://www.lawschoolpredictor.com/wp-co ... ograms.htm is overall too optimistic/pessimistic or pretty accurate? If the former, is there a more realistic predictor out there?


There is a page on LSP that talks about its accuracy. I would link to it if I wasn't so lazy.

http://www.lawschoolpredictor.com/?page_id=173

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tooswolle
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Re: Lawschoolpredictor = accurate?

Postby tooswolle » Fri Dec 31, 2010 5:46 pm

To add to the conversation, some of the restrictions the predictor has is that it applies it's analysis on a unrepresentative sample of urms and most likely regular students. Because there is more students with better numbers results might be skewed, but from what I've heard schools will dip lower if you got something they want. That being said it's good to give you a range but for URM and splitters I'd say take it with a grain of salt.

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AreJay711
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Re: Lawschoolpredictor = accurate?

Postby AreJay711 » Fri Dec 31, 2010 5:56 pm

I applied ED and was accepted very early. LSP had me as "admit" under ED so it was 100% accurate for me.

Sandro
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Re: Lawschoolpredictor = accurate?

Postby Sandro » Sat Jan 01, 2011 10:30 pm

spacepenguin wrote:
Sandro777 wrote:why is it not splitter friendly?

Part of it is the way logistic regression works. Unless they use an interaction term of sorts it's going to struggle with splitters. More to the point and my non-expert opinion would be that most data that LSP uses comes from people with more standardized numbers; that is, good GPAs with good LSAT scores, or bad GPAs with bad LSATs and there's little data taken into account for traditional splitters. With such few outliers, it's hard to make a predictive model. With that in mind, reverse splitters seem to be more common and thus I would imagine LSP would fair better with those applicants.

Just my $0.02

edit: Also, awesome avatar. Best. Moment. Ever.


Agreed. I've also found that for as much as it might be too pessimistic it can be optimistic. For example LSP might put me at consider for a school - yet no one on LSN got in with similiar numbers to me last year. In fact, people with 1 or 2 higher LSAT or .1 or .2 higher GPA were denied/waitlisted.

For me the LSAC school description pages are wonderful - for most schools that provide the data it shows a .25 GPA / 3-5 LSAT point range and the number of applicants/admitted. Some schools will be listed as consider yet only have admitted 3/75 applicants with similiar numbers last cycle (and who knows if they were URM or non trad)

I've applied to all the schools I think I could be competitive at with my current LSAT and am waiting for my new score to apply to some more. Depending on how many points I improve it will present some questions regarding to which schools the new score makes me competitive at.

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fastforward
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Re: Lawschoolpredictor = accurate?

Postby fastforward » Sat Jan 01, 2011 11:04 pm

I see someone has posted the link. PSP's weakness is that they rely on the self-selected data reported on LSN. That said, their methodology is transparent and they have studied and disclosed the accuracy of their predictions. Anecdotal reports in these forums indicate the results are more accurate the earlier you apply. Here's an example http://www.top-law-schools.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=117143&p=2948732&hilit=yale+2010#p2948732.

LSP is a powerful motivational tool: It can illustrate what a drastically different outcome your cycle might have if you do what you need to do to raise your LSAT score a few points.

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ec2xs
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Re: Lawschoolpredictor = accurate?

Postby ec2xs » Sat Jan 01, 2011 11:11 pm

Currently a 1L. Went back and popped in my numbers out of curiosity. I'm a "weak consider" at the school I'm currently attending. :)

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fastforward
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Re: Lawschoolpredictor = accurate?

Postby fastforward » Sat Jan 01, 2011 11:20 pm

ec2xs wrote: I'm a "weak consider" at the school I'm currently attending. :)


There ya go. At least they were correct on the "consider" part! :D LSP does not purport to be anything more than it is.
Last edited by fastforward on Sun Jan 02, 2011 12:46 am, edited 1 time in total.

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ihp12
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Re: Lawschoolpredictor = accurate?

Postby ihp12 » Sat Jan 01, 2011 11:47 pm

There have been situations for me where its prediction directly contradict real LSAC data. For example, there were several schools (50 - 25 range) whose LSAC GPA/LSAT chart showed nearly 100% acceptances, but LSP listed as "consider".

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brochocinco
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Re: Lawschoolpredictor = accurate?

Postby brochocinco » Sun Jan 02, 2011 12:00 am

The best thing LSP provides is an estimate of where your reach and safety schools will fall. I think they have recently become more sensitive to the individual school biases than in the past. I've always found LSN more interesting and reliable anyway.

CanadianWolf
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Re: Lawschoolpredictor = accurate?

Postby CanadianWolf » Sun Jan 02, 2011 12:21 am

Isn't LSP based on data from LSN ?

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fastforward
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Re: Lawschoolpredictor = accurate?

Postby fastforward » Sun Jan 02, 2011 12:45 am

CanadianWolf wrote:Isn't LSP based on data from LSN ?

Yes
http://www.lawschoolpredictor.com/?page_id=173

LSAC's admission predictor is great as far as it goes, because it is based on data reported from the law schools. Unfortunately many schools have chosen not to participate in reporting, including seven of the T14. http://officialguide.lsac.org/Release/UGPALSAT/UGPALSAT.aspx




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