@sanbun et al - if you havent heard anything yet, there is still a chance you will get in through dean tom, there is also still a chance you will be sent to FR. however the only way to waitlist is through FR, they compile a ranked wl at the end of their process.
without looking at all the numbers, and with hopefully no offense to those in this category, it seems the only people rejected thus far are *numerical* auto denies, and splitters. given the dean tom interview on this site and my own experience from last year I'm gonna take a stab at some possibilities for all the early app, non reject, no FR folks:
1. some sort of hold process is going on where you are being compared to the later apps. probable outcome = FR or reject
2. dean tom is waffling on whether he should accept you or send you to FR. probable outcome = admit or FR
3. you were in one of his staffs groups and not his and they are already in love with you, but the tom himself has to see if he agrees. probable outcome = admit with smaller chance of FR
4. berkeley's mean and just wants to string you along. probable outcome = reject
i have very little basis for any of this other than the tls interview, what happened with me last year, and whats been said on this forum.
additions, addendums, and criticisms all welcome.
*for entertainment purposes only.