Harvard 2010!

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invisiblesun
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Re: Harvard 2010!

Postby invisiblesun » Wed Mar 10, 2010 11:55 am

puppleberry finn wrote:
lsnoob wrote:i like where your head's at ... any assumptions about how many people are left (held/pending) for those 40-100 spots?


quick, extrapolate total number of dings -> application % represented on LSN -> total applications - total offers


go mathbot go


A major problem here is that LSN has no "held" indicator, and extrapolating how many of the remaining pending applications are holds vs. people who didn't update gets really fuzzy. There are ways to guesstimate given what we have on LSN, but I'm not sure if that would really give us anything useful.

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puppleberry finn
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Re: Harvard 2010!

Postby puppleberry finn » Wed Mar 10, 2010 11:56 am

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Last edited by puppleberry finn on Sun Mar 28, 2010 3:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Sogui
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Re: Harvard 2010!

Postby Sogui » Wed Mar 10, 2010 12:01 pm

I haven't heard anything since my complete email on Feb.2

Would it be appropriate/smart to send an LOCI now, or wait for more news.

democrattotheend
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Re: Harvard 2010!

Postby democrattotheend » Wed Mar 10, 2010 12:12 pm

Sogui wrote:It appears that previous holds are getting a lot of action now, what about us went complete in Jan/Feb heard-nothing-yets...


+1

I'm in the same boat...I figured because my numbers made me borderline at best, but your numbers are much higher than mine...I guess that gives me hope.

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starr126
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Re: Harvard 2010!

Postby starr126 » Wed Mar 10, 2010 12:27 pm

democrattotheend wrote:
Sogui wrote:It appears that previous holds are getting a lot of action now, what about us went complete in Jan/Feb heard-nothing-yets...


+1

I'm in the same boat...I figured because my numbers made me borderline at best, but your numbers are much higher than mine...I guess that gives me hope.



+1 complete for over a month and no word at all. i'm also wondering whether a LOCI might help... or maybe it's better to wait until the inevitable hold or waitlist notification arrives.

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clintonius
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Re: Harvard 2010!

Postby clintonius » Wed Mar 10, 2010 12:31 pm

I'm not sure when I went complete, exactly -- I got one of those erroneous complete e-mails after I'd been under review for 10 days already -- but I don't expect to hear anything until JR says to somebody, "Ok, this pile? Send out rejection e-mails," probably sometime in a couple weeks or early April. If I do happen to make the wait list I'll send my LOCI, but I doubt it would do much good for me at this point.

georgina
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Re: Harvard 2010!

Postby georgina » Wed Mar 10, 2010 12:52 pm

invisiblesun wrote:160 more profiles times 18% acceptance rate (adjusted rate to account for hidden profiles) = ~29 more admits. So 150 admitted out of 160. Which would only leave 7% of remaining admits, so 42-53 depending on how many applicants HLS outright admits.

I want to qualify that this is quite pessimistic. It assumes that hidden profiles would not unhide after being admitted to Harvard. If what puppleberry is saying is true, then we might assume that the 160 hiddens contain fewer admits per applicant than the overall proportion. Let's assume that half of hidden people would unhide after being accepted. 160 * 9% = ~15 extra admits. This gives us 137 admits out of 160, so 14% admittances remaining. 600-750 outright admits -> 84-105.

So on the pessimistic end, we have 42-53 remaining acceptances, and on the optimistic (i would argue more realistic) end, 84-105.


so of the visible LSN profiles, 10 more on the pessimistic end and 23 more on the optimistic end.

ouch.

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crackberry
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Re: Harvard 2010!

Postby crackberry » Wed Mar 10, 2010 12:57 pm

of Benito Cereno wrote:I guess thats probably true but what evidence is there? Wouldn't people most people already in at harvard be done with their cycle at this point (unless waiting on yls I guess).

Pernicious anti-Stanford trolling.

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$1.99
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Re: Harvard 2010!

Postby $1.99 » Wed Mar 10, 2010 1:36 pm

that is funny, as a hold i haven't seen any action

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Core
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Re: Harvard 2010!

Postby Core » Wed Mar 10, 2010 2:00 pm

$1.99 wrote:that is funny, as a hold i haven't seen any action

+1, seriously. It looks like just a few have gotten in.

MTC87
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Re: Harvard 2010!

Postby MTC87 » Wed Mar 10, 2010 2:09 pm

starr126 wrote:
democrattotheend wrote:
Sogui wrote:It appears that previous holds are getting a lot of action now, what about us went complete in Jan/Feb heard-nothing-yets...


+1

I'm in the same boat...I figured because my numbers made me borderline at best, but your numbers are much higher than mine...I guess that gives me hope.



+1 complete for over a month and no word at all. i'm also wondering whether a LOCI might help... or maybe it's better to wait until the inevitable hold or waitlist notification arrives.


pm me if anyone wants to swap LOCIs

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invisiblesun
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Re: Harvard 2010!

Postby invisiblesun » Wed Mar 10, 2010 2:25 pm

georgina wrote:
invisiblesun wrote:160 more profiles times 18% acceptance rate (adjusted rate to account for hidden profiles) = ~29 more admits. So 150 admitted out of 160. Which would only leave 7% of remaining admits, so 42-53 depending on how many applicants HLS outright admits.

I want to qualify that this is quite pessimistic. It assumes that hidden profiles would not unhide after being admitted to Harvard. If what puppleberry is saying is true, then we might assume that the 160 hiddens contain fewer admits per applicant than the overall proportion. Let's assume that half of hidden people would unhide after being accepted. 160 * 9% = ~15 extra admits. This gives us 137 admits out of 160, so 14% admittances remaining. 600-750 outright admits -> 84-105.

So on the pessimistic end, we have 42-53 remaining acceptances, and on the optimistic (i would argue more realistic) end, 84-105.


so of the visible LSN profiles, 10 more on the pessimistic end and 23 more on the optimistic end.

ouch.


No, no. I already accounted for that. This is not out of LSN candidates, this is actual spots in the class. ~50 remaining spots in the Harvard class on the pessimistic end and ~90 on the optimistic end, which will presumably be filled by people who are currently held.

c0rpusdelicti
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Re: Harvard 2010!

Postby c0rpusdelicti » Wed Mar 10, 2010 2:30 pm

oso84 wrote:Hey all, I've never posted on TLS before but just so there's some more info out there:

App complete: 11/24
Hold email: 1/19
JR1: 3/3 (which surprised me, I thought I was done-zo)
No phone call this Monday

How common is hold --> JR1 --> JR2? Is not hearing anything the Monday following the JR1 a kiss of death?

TLS=LSN user


I was complete on 11/20, held on 1/17, had my JR1 on 3/2, and got in today. Keep hope alive!

georgina
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Re: Harvard 2010!

Postby georgina » Wed Mar 10, 2010 2:40 pm

c0rpusdelicti wrote:
I was complete on 11/20, held on 1/17, had my JR1 on 3/2, and got in today. Keep hope alive!


congrats! you totally set the new gpa floor. :D

c0rpusdelicti
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Re: Harvard 2010!

Postby c0rpusdelicti » Wed Mar 10, 2010 2:49 pm

georgina wrote:
c0rpusdelicti wrote:
I was complete on 11/20, held on 1/17, had my JR1 on 3/2, and got in today. Keep hope alive!


congrats! you totally set the new gpa floor. :D


blah blah blah undergrad institution rigor blah. :P

APimpNamedSlickback
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Re: Harvard 2010!

Postby APimpNamedSlickback » Wed Mar 10, 2010 2:53 pm

georgina wrote:
c0rpusdelicti wrote:
I was complete on 11/20, held on 1/17, had my JR1 on 3/2, and got in today. Keep hope alive!


congrats! you totally set the new gpa floor. :D


subtly making fun of me, huh?

i can't really articulate my level of enthusiasm about not being dead last anymore. but trust me, this is awesome.

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crackberry
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Re: Harvard 2010!

Postby crackberry » Wed Mar 10, 2010 3:16 pm

APimpNamedSlickback wrote:
georgina wrote:
c0rpusdelicti wrote:
I was complete on 11/20, held on 1/17, had my JR1 on 3/2, and got in today. Keep hope alive!


congrats! you totally set the new gpa floor. :D


subtly making fun of me, huh?

i can't really articulate my level of enthusiasm about not being dead last anymore. but trust me, this is awesome.

Damnit. 549/550. Things are looking up!

APimpNamedSlickback
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Re: Harvard 2010!

Postby APimpNamedSlickback » Wed Mar 10, 2010 3:29 pm

x
Last edited by APimpNamedSlickback on Tue May 11, 2010 12:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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crackberry
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Re: Harvard 2010!

Postby crackberry » Wed Mar 10, 2010 3:34 pm

APimpNamedSlickback wrote:seriously, i considered playing the lottery on my way home from work today, but honestly i just can't conceive of a way that today could get any better.

You get off work at 2?

APimpNamedSlickback
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Re: Harvard 2010!

Postby APimpNamedSlickback » Wed Mar 10, 2010 3:35 pm

x
Last edited by APimpNamedSlickback on Tue May 11, 2010 12:53 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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crackberry
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Re: Harvard 2010!

Postby crackberry » Wed Mar 10, 2010 3:45 pm

APimpNamedSlickback wrote:
crackberry wrote:
APimpNamedSlickback wrote:seriously, i considered playing the lottery on my way home from work today, but honestly i just can't conceive of a way that today could get any better.

You get off work at 2?


no i meant like whenever i make it out of here. so maybe 6 or 7 or whatever.

but again, in your face. i dont want to hear another gpa joke.

TBF, Kronk makes fun of my LSAT all the time these days.

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CoaltoNewCastle
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Re: Harvard 2010!

Postby CoaltoNewCastle » Wed Mar 10, 2010 3:47 pm

c0rpusdelicti wrote:
oso84 wrote:Hey all, I've never posted on TLS before but just so there's some more info out there:

App complete: 11/24
Hold email: 1/19
JR1: 3/3 (which surprised me, I thought I was done-zo)
No phone call this Monday

How common is hold --> JR1 --> JR2? Is not hearing anything the Monday following the JR1 a kiss of death?

TLS=LSN user


I was complete on 11/20, held on 1/17, had my JR1 on 3/2, and got in today. Keep hope alive!


Good job, Jove! Try to pull some Lambda strings to get me in please. I'll be a valuable member, I guarantee it!

georgina
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Re: Harvard 2010!

Postby georgina » Wed Mar 10, 2010 4:14 pm

APimpNamedSlickback wrote:
georgina wrote:
c0rpusdelicti wrote:
I was complete on 11/20, held on 1/17, had my JR1 on 3/2, and got in today. Keep hope alive!


congrats! you totally set the new gpa floor. :D


subtly making fun of me, huh?

i can't really articulate my level of enthusiasm about not being dead last anymore. but trust me, this is awesome.


yup. i still aspire to be the non-URM gpa floor.

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adameus
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Re: Harvard 2010!

Postby adameus » Wed Mar 10, 2010 4:53 pm

congrats to the new admits. JR was pretty busy on monday with finishing up the ASW so there is a decent chance IMO that he may not have had a chance to call all the new admits and will call some next monday.

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Sogui
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Re: Harvard 2010!

Postby Sogui » Wed Mar 10, 2010 5:00 pm

$1.99 wrote:that is funny, as a hold i haven't seen any action


Well relative to the rest of us, the last 2 weeks have really only had action for holds.




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